NFL betting tip: Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

Nov 20, 2017
football betting tips -

 

NFL : Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

 

Seahawks have a tremendous primetime record under head coach Pete Carroll  (21-3-1) and have won 11 straight on Monday night ! However, tonight they will have to win without two all pro starters in their secondary, superstar Richard Sherman, who has not missed a game wince Week 8 of 2011 (!) and Kam Chancellor. We do not know how they will perform without Sherman, they have never had to (!), but Chancellor missed four games last season, two home (2-0-0) , two on the road (0-1-1), they won both home games narrowly, including to the Falcons, more on that later, but opponents scored 24 and 25 points and they only allowed more than 18 once in their six other starts here at CenturyLink Field. He missed two in 2015, both at home, a win over the 3-13 Browns and loss to the 7-9 Rams. The dynamic duo's absence is compounded by defensive end Cliff Avril (long term) and linebacker Michael Wilhoite (pictured) also missing out .

The two teams met twice last season, as already mentioned, the Seahawks won the first 26-24 in regular season, they were up 17-3 at the half, Falcons scored 21 unanswered points in the third quarter and led by a TD before Seattle staged a typical late comeback, with Sherman making a key play. He and Julio Jones, his Falcons nemesis, were going toe to toe all night , Sherman won that, but JJ and his other two main receivers still had 15 catches for 255 yards and three touchdowns and were on top, before that vital touch. There was not a cigarette paper between the two teams in that, but the contest was decided by two turnovers.

They met again in post season in Atlanta, Seattle once more started the better and led by 7 after the opening quarter, but the Falcons scored 36 in the last three and won by 16. The three main recievers "only" had 12 receptions for 137 yards and two touchdowns and Sherman and co might feel they did their job, but that allowed space elsewhere and the two running backs had 8 catches for 151 yards and Seattle could not cover everything that the Falcons were able to throw at them and that was with a stronger line and both Sherman and Chancellor in the secondary in the second game. The pair actually had their most tackles of the season in that game (joint for Sherman), led and still Atlanta scored 36 points and won by 16, I find it hard to make a case for Seattle in their absence.

It has been said that it is not the same Atlanta offense this season, but last week I explained some of their numbers and also, how they were improved defensively.......

The Falcons offense has underachieved, we saw them close to their peak against Detroit ( of course we did !) earlier in the campaign, but little since in terms of scoring, however, their yardage stats are actually very good. They are 17th in scoring, but 5th in total yards, and 2nd in yards per play, with a good balance between the pass and run. Their third down completion has been a little off, but it all feels like small margins. Defensively they have not given up more than 26 points and only once more than 23, Dallas have scored 28+ in their last six, but lost two and I am not sure how they are going to get close to that number today or keep the Falcons off the field as long as they have managed to versus recents opponents without the big running game.
 
They won 27-7 ,QB Matt Ryan had receptions to seven different players and they completed on 53% of third downs a huge increase ( see above), they might not have beaten much in an Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith less Cowboys, but it was impressive nonetheless and today will be the third week running (and 4th time this season) they have faced a highly mobile quarterback in Russell Wilson, they struggled with Cam Newton, but "won" the other two contests and know Wilson better and have increasingly got on top of him in recent games. He seems sure to be their main threat on the ground, with their best RB not having played since Week 4 and returning Eddie Lacy having only 2.7 yards per carry on 48 attempts and only one 100 yard game in two years. I do not see the Seahawks keeping Atlanta to under 24-25 points and cannot see Wilson with a one dimensional attack keeping pace. All the numbers indicate that the Falcons are much better on both sides of the ball than results show and the defense is especially strong at the business end of games, allowing a NFL low 25% of 4th quarter third down conversions. They have outplayed/outscored Seattle in the second half of the two most recent meetings and have more advantages today. That Seahawks proud primetime record is a concern, but the only one really and I think Atlanta should be reasonably strong favourites to win this.
 
 
1.75 units Atlanta Falcons to beat Seattle Seahawks 2.04 Money Line Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro/Vegas Line.
 
 

Good Luck.

 

We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.

Country: 
U.S.A
Sport: 
NFL

Don't be selfish, share the betting tips

Must Read Betting Articles