One bad, three good!
Jun 06, 2025
Way back in July last year I wrote my outright notes for the Championship, all of which you can read below. I looked at four teams in some detail.
The bad news was that I went with Luton Town as my main outright pick, narrowly favouring them over Burnley, it was bad news as Town were relegated! On a more positive note, Burnley finished runner up losing the title on goal difference (which is close to impossible) with 100 points and +53 goals ! Sunderland won the playoffs and Bristol City finished 6th and not only landed that top half of the table suggestion, but I also put them up at odds of 9.0 to finish Top 6 later in the season and they did indeed finish 6th, their highest league placing since the 2007/08 campaign.
clubgowi has an incredible record with outright bets and we also had a 8.0 winner in the EPL put up last summer too. I will be sending previews to subscribers right through this off season so don't miss out, especially as you can sign up now and get the summer period for free, email for full details.
Championship 2024/25:
Foot of EPL ............
| 17 | Nottingham Forest2 | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 32 | WLWL | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 37 | ||
| 18 | Luton Town | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 52 | 85 | -33 | 26 | LLXL | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 37 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 48 | ||
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 24 | LLLX | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 43 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 35 | ||
| 20 | Sheffield United | 38 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 104 | -69 | 16 | LLLL | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 57 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 47 | ||
| 1 | Everton (-8) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Nottingham Forest (-4) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023/24 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Leicester City | 46 | 31 | 4 | 11 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 97 | LWWW | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 47 | 18 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 23 | ||
| 2 | Ipswich Town | 46 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 92 | 57 | +35 | 96 | WWXX | 23 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 59 | 32 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 25 | ||
| 3 | Leeds United | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 81 | 43 | +38 | 90 | LLWL | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 16 | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 27 | ||
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 26 | 9 | 11 | 87 | 63 | +24 | 87 | WLLL | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 29 | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 34 | ||
| 5 | WBA | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 47 | +23 | 75 | WLLL | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 17 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 30 | ||
| 6 | Norwich City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 64 | +15 | 73 | LXXW | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 22 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 42 | ||
The last four Championship winners have been relegated teams, the last three were the team who finished 18th in the EPL and Luton Town filled that spot this season. Prior to that the title was won by Leeds United who had finished third the year before, which is the position they again filled in 2023/24 and they have been priced strong favourites at circa 5.0 to repeat that feat.
The top 3 through those last five seasons (15 teams) have been provided by 12 who were either relegated, or playoff losers the previous campaign ( six of each).
Most compelling statistic of all is that 8 of the last 10 teams filling the automatic promotion places were receiving parachute payments from the Premier League. This is no surprise, not only is this a massive financial income boost, but comes at a time when many Championship teams are keeping a tighter hold on finances and are less willing to gamble for the Holy Grail of promotion, like we have seen Forest, Villa, Derby and others do in the recent past, with varying success. Coventry City ( 5th and 9th last two seasons, along with a FA Cup semi final) , Millwall (top 9 in 4 of the last 7 seasons) and Luton Town (19-12-6-3 last four Championship campaigns) have shown it can be done on a relative shoestring and staying within budget. No surprise that all three have played at a lower level in recent seasons. City were League 2 in 2018 and were a penalty shoot out away from the top flight five years later, Town were promoted that season, just nine years after they returned to the Football League from non league.
Luton fall between two camps, a club who can thrive on low crowds and a restrictive budget at this level, improving season on season, but now having money! They did not waste EPL funds last season, spending some on bringing tiny and homely Kenilworth Road up to the minimum level required, earmarking a large chunk for the proposed move to a new ground and a little on upgrading the squad and they were competitive, still having a chance of survival as we entered the final week. Both they and Coventry City have had major financial issues in the past, but, unlike some other clubs, appear to have learned their lesson and still be competitive.
However, without the Forest points deduction, the relegated trio would have been 10+ points from safety which is a bit of a gulf. Sheffield United were booked for relegation almost from Day 1 and Burnley have lost head coach Vincent Kompany, who has gone to manage Bayern Munich of all clubs, in the surprise move of the off season so far.
Town are very well run and a lot of credit has to go to Gary Sweet who was voted Championship Chief Executive of the season in 2022/23 and also won the award with Town in both League 2 and League 1. The judges commented : “He has overseen the recovery of his club from the Football Conference to the top of the Championship without risking its long-term future by overspending. Under his guidance the club has become an example for others and recognised by the authorities for its attitude towards the promotion of gambling and payments of living wage amongst other initiatives.
“To be competing at the top end of the Championship with limited budgets and small gates illustrates the fantastic job he has done. A great season with limited resources.”
It sounds like my mind is made up on Town and to some degree it is as they should go well, but we first have to see how many key players they manage to keep, with most keen to stay in the EPL and any interested club sure to offer a higher salary, but it was ever thus for the Hatters and they usually find a way. They have not shown a lot of sentiment following relegation, with 14 players already released including a couple who had achieved triple promotions with Town and that will further help with what can be spent on what they now know is the required talent level.
Update:
Odds of circa 4.33 for Leeds United to win the Championship having finished third last season, selling Archie Gray and Luis Sinisterra, with others likely to depart, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It is not like they haven't struggled to get out of the Championship in the past and they were 16 years out of the EPL following their previous relegation. Not saying they cannot win, or get promotion, but it always has to come down to odds and theirs feel skinny.
I think Burnley and Luton offer better value and I will start with the Clarets.
They fell out of the blocks last season after coming back up amid much fanfare and lost their first seven home games and did not win a second until March 16th and never a third, losing 13. However, their very young squad (second youngest starting formation in the top flight) grew into the EPL and showed talent at times and they have won the Championship the last two times they have competed in it, posting a combined record of 55-29-8 , losing just three games at home, one after promotion was secured. If they can again make Turf Moor a fortress, they will surely go close and all those youngsters will have EPL experience and also be happier at this level. They have lost Vincent Kompany and whilst I have some top flight issues with his replacement Scott Parker, it is hard to argue with his Championship record, having been promoted in both seasons that he has managed at this level. Taking Fulham up via the playoffs and a 4th place finish in 2019-20 and Bournemouth automatically (2nd) in 21/22. They were two clubs in a similar position to Burnley, with Fulham having been relegated the previous season and Bournemouth in their second season in the championship. If Kompany was still at the club I would probably have sided with Burnley, but my big concern is how cautious a manager Parker is and his two promoted teams only averaged a combined 1.5 goals, the three promoted teams last season averaged 1.94.
Luton Town have lost Ross Barclay to Aston Villa and loanee Sambi Lokonga which weakens them in midfield, but they have already signed Shandon Baptiste from Brentford and he made 55 EPL appearances for the Bees in an injury hit time at the club and he could be a big player in the Championship if he stays fit. Town are also going to add some further midfield options and head coach Rob Edwards spoke openly about having plenty of funds available if required and that the Hatters were in a stronger position financially than most rivals. Town have finished 12-6-3 in their last three seasons in the second tier and no one really enjoys coming to Kenilworth Road where the cramped and homely conditions, allied to the way Town play which is high energy for 100 minutes regardless of scoreline, can make for a very uncomfortable and claustrophobic afternoon/evening.
Edwards changed shape through games and did this a LOT in that last Championship season with the intention of allowing them to press with the same intensity through games. Last season, in the EPL, they scored 20(!) goals after the 75th minute, a total only beaten by Liverpool and Manchester City.
It is the number of goals they score and not just when they score them that appeal, although, having said that, those late goals can help when chasing a game, or the win. Town were relegated having scored 52 goals, usually teams coming down do so with mid 30's goals at best, in the last decade only three have been relegated with over 40 goals.........
Newcastle United with 44 in 2015/16 and they won the Championship the next season with 94 points.
Leicester City with 51 and Leeds United with 48 in 2022/23. City won the Championship with 97 points and United were 3rd with 90 points.
Town outscored all of them and if they are to hit the same 90+ points that the trio did, then even 90 would ensure top 3 , infact, across the last two decades it would have secured 8 titles and six second and six third place finishes. Town to bounce back.
Dark Horse ?
Bristol City are one of the big underachievers in the Championship, the set up looks good, the owner is super rich and has been long term committed to the City of Bristol (which is the 11th largest in the UK and biggest in the West Country) and not just the football club. However, since promotion in 2015 they have only once finished top 10 (8th) and had been expected to at least compete in all nine of those campaigns. It has to be said they have made some god awful managerial appointments, a couple of whom I would not even let take charge of my dog if I had one! However, I suspect they have a good one now, with Liam Manning poached from Oxford United, he is very young (38) and perhaps only now coming to terms with the job after arriving in November. His team went into the final game of last season unbeaten in seven including two games against top 5 teams with automatic and playoff ambitions and the mood at the club is good. Attendances are averaging over 22,000 which is great for a mid table team with no real success for years and the highest they have been since the 1977-78 campaign. Season ticket sales have increased this summer, so every reason to believe that those attendances will rise again.
They finally finished 11th last season, their best finish since 2018-19 and a circa 10 point improvement, which will be required to get into the top 6 feels do-able . The team that Manning built at Oxford earned promotion into the Championship after his departure and now he will have had his first pre-season and second transfer window at Ashton Gate and in the first he was still working out what was required. No team outside the top six won more home games than City, or had a better goal difference +10 and they should improve and circa 2.50+ for them to again finish top half of the table, feels big.
Sleeping (dozing) Giant
Sunderland are also worthy of mention. They are an enormous club with terrific support and averaged a Championship high 41,158 attendance last season despite finishing 16th, which is insane! That would have placed them 9th in the EPL, just above Chelsea and a few hundred below Aston Villa.
16th seems low, but they finished only 8 points adrift of 9th and were outside the playoff spots only on goal difference through 31 games. We can forgive them that finish to a degree, it was the youngest squad in the Football league and by a mile in the Championship, with an average age in their starting 11 of 22.4 yo with the next youngest coming in at 24.1 and they were dealing with much upheaval at the Stadium of Light, with four different head coaches (two permanent) in charge.
Sunderland were only promoted to the second tier in 21/22 and finished 6th in their first season back, so had that postseason hangover to deal with too. However, performance levels were better and xP gave them 70 points, an additional 14 , just one shy of the team in 5th and actually better than they achieved in that debut season and all while the youngsters were dealing with a lot of disruption.
The owners are interesting. 26 yo (!) Kyril Louis-Dreyfus owns 64% and 43 yo Juan Sartori 36%, both are from mega rich families and with sporting backgrounds. Louis -Dreyfus studied sport at University which is odd in itself for someone from his upbringing (isn't it always business?) and he also has a small share in Olympique Marseille, the club which was owned by his father. Sartori is married to the daughter of a Russian oligarch and she and her husband are both on the board of AS Monaco, which is owned by her father. But Sartori is rich in his own right and also sits on the Senate in Uruguay and finished second in the race to earn his party's nomination for President. As I said, an interesting duo.
With that French football background for both and given the youth of the set up at Sunderland, which is very much the modus operandi established by the owners, the appointment of Regis Le Bris as head coach makes sense. The 48yo has been coaching since he was 27, usually working with youngsters. He had been at Lorient since 2012 , the last two seasons in the head coach role. RLB is very hands-on and there is a lot of video doing the rounds of him drilling the players in preseason, drumming into them , "faster, faster, higher tempo." RLB has a doctorate in sport physiology and biomechanics, later getting a DU on mental training of high level athletes and is very much a modern coach who is happy with analytics and outside the box thinking, whilst also having a long history in football, despite still being "young".
I like the signing of 24 yo Ian Poveda from Leeds United, he was at Brentford as a youngster and the next big thing at the time, before getting "stolen" by Manchester City for a pittance and was the catalyst for the Bees closing their academy at the time . Also, Alan Browne , he is going to be the grandad in this squad at 29yo, but brings with him a wealth of experience , 346 games in the Championship, 44 with Preston North End last season. His signing makes so much sense with all those youngsters playing around the CM.
We can hold off on Sunderland for now, but odds are very big and unless they sell Clarke and Bellingham before the season opener, I will almost certainly be betting on them in one of the outright markets. It will also give us the chance to see who else they bring in. Just don't tell anyone we are monitoring them!
Good luck!
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