BBC Basketball advisory service ....
Apr 14, 2016
Be smart, play basketball !
The NBA Regular season has just finished and we await the start of the post season, Veselin took a look back at how the season panned out in notes to his subscribers this afternoon .............
So, we have come to the end of the regular season and what a season it has been ! I'm sure this season will remain in NBA history as one of the most remarkable and trend-setting ever!
History has been re-written with GSW doing the unimaginable - breaking Chicago Bulls' 72-win regular season record. Steph Curry has made 402 three pointers for the season (breaking his own record from the previous season). Just for comparison, different NBA teams have failed to record this number of total 3's made for some 550+ seasons (combined). Simply amazing, and it clearly shows what the new era NBA will look like.
Of course, we also witnessed Kobe's last season and what a farewell he had, scoring 60 points last night (the oldest player in history to reach this plateau). He will remain forever as one of the greatest players in the game, the second greatest behind Michael in my humble opinion.
Let's go back to business now!
Final regular season numbers for 2015-16 (incl. the single antepost selection on Indiana total wins) are:
Staked: 231 units
127 Won - 5 Void - 99 Lost
56.19 % Strike Rate
Profit: + 20.21 units
ROI: + 8.75 %
ROC (based on the recommended 25 points bank): 80.84 %
Spread bets (incl. money lines) performance:
Staked: 169 units
Profit: + 16.62 units
ROI: + 9.83 %
Totals:
Staked: 61 units
Profit: + 2.66 units
ROI: + 4.36 %
I wouldn't rush to make any definitive conclusions here regarding Spreads vs. Totals as any sample under 500 bets is widely open to statistical variance.Yet it's satisfactory that both categories are in profit, though it's evident I spot value in spread betting easier.
Even more satisfying for me personally is the steady strike rate figure. This indicator is the most important when it comes to US sports because of their uniqueness bettingwise. Return of Investment is just a function of the strike rate and could easily be influenced by buying or selling additional spread / total point(s). Some of you have shared with me that they always try to play it more aggressively and take the next spread line, thus adding 1.50 - 2.00 % to ROI but risking a bit longer losing run here and there. There's nothing wrong with the conservative approach of course, accepting the default line. There are passengers for all types of trains as they say, the good thing is all our trains are going firmly in the right direction :)
The results are completely in line with my expectations by the way and with previous season numbers from my blog. Here's 2014-15 season results for comparison:
Staked: 167 units
90 Won - 5 Void - 72 Lost
55.56 % Strike Rate
Profit: + 13.55 units
ROI: + 8.11 %
ROC (based on the recommended 25 points bank): 54.20 %
Combined numbers for both regular seasons read:
Staked: 398 units
217 Won - 10 Void - 171 Lost
55.93 % Strike Rate
Profit: + 33.76 units
ROI: + 8.48 %
ROC (based on the recommended 25 points bank): 135.04 %
All bets have been with Pinnacle Sports, odds also available with Sportmarket Pro and these are very good returns indeed for easy to play, but traditionally hard to beat Vegas lines.
We now have the play-offs to tackle and I'm confident that there will be plenty of decent value spots to exploit.
You can join Veselin and the rest of the BBC subscribers for the playoffs at the low , low cost of 89 €, sign up here !
Good Luck.
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