Burnley- Rotherham United

 

This match has been priced quite a bit differently to how we would have expected say ten days ago and that is down to one man Neil Warnock, who is the fourth manager this season charged with the task of keeping the Millers in the championship. I will admit he got his team battling hard on his debut last week and a point at home to Birmingham City was noteworthy, but United are still five from safety, are not very good and Warnock is having to hastily assemble a survival bid with only the loan market to help him. He has been busy and we might see further improvement from them after those new arrivals have bedded in a little, but that is more likely to come in the next week or two rather than today, when they meet one of the strongest Championship teams, who are on a nine match unbeaten run against Championship teams and looking to break into the automatic promotion spots with all three points.

The Clarets are 30 points above Rotherham, which is more of less exactly a point per game better and they have made a habit of putting "weaker" teams to the sword, being a perfect 10/10 against bottom eight teams and winning the last four of those with a combined 16-1 goals difference ! I spoke about how poor United had been on the road ahead of their last away start, a trip to basement club Bolton Wanderers when my notes included ........The Millers have taken just one point from six away starts and were said to have been dire at home to struggling Charlton Athletic last weekend, when they lost 4-1 and it could have been worse ! United have lost a Championship high 18 times this season and do not "do" draws, with just four across 32 starts in all competitions, which is ideal for us as I am opting for a home win.
 

They lost that 2-1, the sixth away game running than they had conceded at least two goals and today they arrive in a bit of a transition stage under the new boss and without two suspended defenders in centre back Richie Wood and left back Joe Mattock ( United have conceded 22 goals in the nine games he has missed and seven of those were at home), that will have got the attention of Burnley right winger George Boyd who has returned to his best form this season, he will be looking to provide the bullets for Championship top scorer Andre Gray, who will be hungry today after missing two "sitters" and a penalty at Reading last week and he has two goals in three starts against the Millers and I think the hosts will have too much offensively for United today.

 

1.5 units Burnley -1 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

 

League 1:Bradford City- Rochdale

 

I see a lot of similarities between this Bradford city team and the one which we were strongly with through their 2012-13 League 2 promotion year, they came with a big run there to win the playoffs and despite getting distracted with cup runs and a poor playing surface in subsequent campaigns, they have improved in each, finishing 11th and 7th , they are a big club and have the level of support to once more become an established Championship side and look to be coming on strong in the second half of the campaign and timing their run well. They have posted back to back wins over direct playoff rivals in Peterborough United and Southend United by a combined 6-0 and meet a Rochdale side who are very hit and miss, recent wins over league leaders Burton Albion and third placed Walsall, were sandwiched between losses to Barnsley and Chesterfield who were both in the drop zone and where they conceded nine goals, just about sums them up ! Visiting boss Keith Hill (pictured) is a head caoch I have a lot of time for and he will never compromise his principles and his teams are always pleasing on the eye and will look to get forward at every opportunity, witness the two points and two goal lead thrown away at home to Crewe Alexandra last week. Dale are struggling defensively and I was quite shocked to read some of the comments on their forum, which were very much of the "I think we have enough about us to stay up " variety, which is a little telling as they are eight points clear of the drop zone with at game in hand on most teams below them.

The visitors have won only three times on the road all season and have been dealing with lengthy injury problems and lacking a real central defensive pairing and that looks likely to cost them dear today, City striker James Hanson is listed as 1.93m, but looks much taller and is a huge aerial threat and can punish that defensive weakness, he has returned to form with four goals in his last four starts and will be up for this today. He caused Dale a lot of problems last year with a goal and assist agaisnt them and will have been sorry to have started on the bench in the reverse fixture this season , which City won 3-1, creating a lot of chances and with two goals coming from crosses into the box.City are tight defensively and have only conceded 11 at home this season, but goals at the other end have been hard to come by until recently and if they have largely solved those issues, they are going to be tough to kep out of the top six. Home win.