US Masters golf:
 

More of the same at the Masters where on Saturday, only five players broke par, but those playing late in the day did have the advantage with the wind dying down . Hideki Matsuyama now leads the ROTW market, but has Jason Day breathing down his neck and the pair look set fair to battle this out today. They will not know much about that of course and will both only have eyes on pulling on that famous green jacket, but let's get this market out of the way first.

 

+5 Lee
+5 Aphibarnrat
+7 Scott
+8 Lahiri
+13 Smith
+13 Jaidee
 

Conditions will be far more conducive to good golf today, but pin positions will be tough and greens just as quick.
 

This was such a shame as Hideki played incredibly well until the final couple of holes on Saturday and even then did little wrong and really ought to be on -3/-4 and perhaps leading the tournament and in a very commanding position in this ROTW market.

 

Several companies have revised their odds on this overnight and general quotes are 2.0 Day, 2.10 Matsuyama, 19 Oosthuizen, 26.0 Cabrera and much bigger the rest. 
 

If the Japanese superstar was standing on -3 on better we could perhaps have looked at hedging something on Jason Day , who would then have been big odds, but we do not have that option and right now, I would not totally rule Oosthuizen and Cabrera out of things, so we will have to just wait and hope ! Any of you who took the top 10 or 20 option ( see original notes at the foot of this email) are in an even stronger position.

 

The top of the outright leaderboard looks like this ........
 

-3 Spieth

-2 Kaufman

-1 Langer

-1 Matsuyama

E Day

E Willett

E Dustin Johnson
 

Full leaderboard can be seen on the US Masters website.
 

 

I feel that Jordan Spieth is very vulnerable, his driving got him in a lot of trouble yesterday and his putting saved him time and time again and his bad shots had little to do with the conditions, he had few "gimme" putts and more of the same today is going to put him under extreme pressure. Not saying that he cannot win, he is leading and one of the 2-3 best players in the world, but despite his position, he is a long way from playing his A game right now, if he wins that is great, hard to believe that any one can win here wire to wire, back to back , but at circa 2.40 he is too short in the betting for me. I was quite impressed by Smylie Kaufman in interview after his round and he appeared very confident in his own ability, but considering how little professional golf he has played , this looks like too much, too soon and playing in the final pairing of the Masters, might get to him today and that might not help the leader either. Normal rules do not apply to Bernhard Langer, but he would be the oldest winner of a major by a decade and 12 years older than Jack Nicklaus who was the oldest here in 1986 and it is easy to see three gruelling rounds catching up with him today and his best chance, would be another day of wind. Therefore,I feel the winner is most likely to come from Day, Matsuyama or Dustin Johnson.
 

Hideki is 8.0 and that is a decent quote IMO, as I made him circa 6.5, but having played him in the ROTW market at 3-4 points bigger and only really having Day to beat. I am not going to suggest betting him today at lower odds to beat everybody !

Jason Day will be in contention, but I did speak pre tournament about him perhaps wanting this too much and in winning opportunities here in 2011 and 2013 , he did not score as well at the business end as the other leading contenders, having said that, he is a much more complete player now and has a major under his belt. Along with Matsuyama, I think that Dustin Johnson was the most unlucky player on Saturday and despite striking his putts well, he had 4-5 that either lipped out, or were left hanging over the cup and he could easily have shot the low round of the day.
 

If you are coming into today "cold" and with no involvement, I feel taking best price for the trio Day, Matsuyama and Johnson, which gives you combined odds of between 2.70 general quote , up to 2.82 on Betfair where there is good liquidty on each , is probably the best value outright bet today, as I feel sure that at least two will be in serious contention over the back nine holes. I would suggest 1.75 units split amongst the three, which at current quotes on Betfair , would return the same with a roughly 0.72 /0.58/0.45 unit split on Day/ Matsuyama/DJ respectively.

 

If that is too complicated and /or you wanted a bigger priced option, I would say that if Dustin Johnson is ever going to win a major, it is likely to be at a venue where he can take full advantage of his enormous length off the tee and from off the pace and in terms of that, being three back today and in the third last group and playing alongside Day is just about perfect and at 10.0-11.0 he is a very fair price, 1.25 units.
 

 

I have been trying to find a way to side with Paul Casey, as I think he will go well today and he meets all the criteria , right age, ranked inside top 30 , previous top 30 here etc, he has finished 7th and 9th in his last two strokeplay starts and on his six Sunday starts in "2016" he has broken 70 in five. He shot a final round 68 for 6th here last year and seems sure to go well today. He is +4 currently and in a tie for 16th, three behind those in a tie for 8th, so will need at least a 68 to break into the top ten I guess, depends how hard the pin positions are today, but he remained very focused yesterday despite being some way behind the lead and he will be keen to finish as high as possible. He is 4.50-5.0 for a top ten finish, including on Betfair Sportsbook and you could try 1.25 units  if you can find that quote.
 

 

 

Matsuyama is big odds, he is a two time winner on Tour and has only recently turned 24 yo, we have been with him for both wins, ahead of the first at the 2014 Memorial I wrote .........

I also want to look at Hideki Matsuyama, who has an abundance of potential and is sure to be a multiple winner in the US. He only turned 22 in February, yet already has five pro wins and also won the Japan momey list last season, he has gone well in all four majors, with a top ten finish in both Opens and top 30 placing in the other two, he is already a superstar in his home country and will become one worldwide soon. His five wins have all come in tight finishes, one in a playoff and two by a single stroke, so we know he is likely to usually hold his nerve in contention. He didn't last week, when starting in the final pairing for the first time (on the PGA Tour), but will have learned a lot from that and this is not the crapshoot that last week looked after R3, is in the second last group today and he can feed off his pairing with (Adam) Scott. We are not going to get big odds about him too often in the future, so let's make the most of it today.

He won the Phoenix Open earlier this year and ahead of the final round ny notes included .........
 

He will go out in a threesome today with three stroke leader Danny Lee and man of the moment Rickie Fowler in a young trio which will whip the crowd up into a frenzy. I cannot see Matsuyama being out of contention and the crowd will worry him far less than other golfers , I expect him to win again this year, possibly twice and this looks as good a place to start as any and he can continue his progress in Phoenix and take this on a thrilling evening of sport.
 

There were some really good notes in those two previews and I feel I have a very solid handle on the Asian superstar and I know that he has prepared for much of this year, with this week solely in mind.

 

The morning after that win in Phoenix I added..........

I would be shocked if Matsuyama didn't win at least once more this year and I expect to be with him when he does ! The 23 yo Japanese star has already finished top 20 at all four majors, top ten at three and will surely go deep at one of those this season, he was 5th at the Masters last year, his current odds of 40-1 could look big in two months time when Augusta rolls around and I wonder how many tournaments he will line up at odds of over 33-1 in the next ten years ? I can answer that.......not very many !