WTA : Miami Open Final betting tip: Ashleigh Barty- Karolina Pliskova
Mar 30, 2019
WTA : Miami Open Final: Ashleigh Barty- Karolina Pliskova
Full semi final notes were in the Thursday newsletter, I wrote the following about Karolina Pliskova...........
It was Karolina Pliskova who inpressed the most and her coaching interaction with Conchita Martinez at the end of the 5th game in set 2 was very noteworthy and in stark contrast to the Kontaveit one (see above) and, for that matter, pretty much any you ever see on Tour. As soon as Martinez arrived at the chair, Pliskova sat forward and upright and listened and interacted, she was super responsive. Why call a trainer and then not be you might ask, but this is so rare on the WTA tour you would not believe and that is doubly hard to credit, as so many of these players are desperately in need of help. Pliskova had already turned the match back in her favour, she just wanted verification that she was back on track , theirs is a relationship clearly build on trust and respect, the latter a world too often missing in modern sport, but Martinez is a big tennis brain and would be an asset to any player willing to learn. Pliskova's all court game is much improved, that second serve ( see below) remains a bit of an issue, but was in decent shape yesterday. There were a couple of points when she served for the match where she wobbled, but all things considered, a pretty good darn good showing . After the match she commented:"It's always better when I play a lot of matches, a lot of sets, a lot of practices. "I completely got used to the conditions here, especially night ones because I'm always playing late nights. I think it's good."I'm playing these opponents who are defending more than some others, so I'm playing a lot of rallies, but I feel good."She is playing in the night game again and almost no one gets more balls back than Simona Halep, so more of the same.
Halep is 18-10 in Premier level semis, Pliskova is 11-7. The Czech player holds a 6-5 record against fellow top 10 opponents in the last 12 months, Halep is 7-2 and have won the last 6, but four of those, including the last three went all the distance. One of those was the match between these two in the Fed Cup last month in a landmark tie. The Czechs had been pretty much unbeatable at home, but Halep led her team to victory with a 6-4 5-7 6-4 win in 2:37 (the first time in a decade the CR had not made the last four) and then did a victory dance with her team mates in front of the Czech players and if Pliskova wanted revenge for that, a win here, which would also rob Halep of #1, would probably do the job nicely ! Pliskova's second serve winning % was 36 that day and you can see how close she took the match, if she falls to that level again she will probably lose, but she was at 59% yesterday and therein lies this match.
Pliskova won 7-5 6-1 , her SS held up well enough but was hardly tested with Halep having just two break points. I don't really have anything to add, this match feels similar and Pliskova is favourite in my book, not with oddsmakers and I feel a little embarrassed saying how I priced this, so I won't ! Pliskova won the last h2h meeting at last year's US Open quarter finals 4&4 and dominated all and I do mean all of the big points in the match and I think she has to lose this game, as I find it hard to make a case for Barty winning it !
Pliskova has won the last six Premier finals she has appeared in, 5 in two sets, Barty is 0-4 lifetime in Premier finals.
2.5 units Karolina Pliskova to beat Ash Barty 2.07 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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