Yesterday's newsletter is reproduced in full, results do not overly matter, it is only meant as a sample of what a standard daily send out looks like......
Friday December 26th
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Saturday and will feature only NFL.
Championship: Brentford - Ipswich
We have a mountain of notes on Brentford over the last two seasons and there is no real need to repeat those yet again, there are on their way to the Premier League at some stage, whether that be this season , or sometime over the next 2-3 campaigns, who knows ? But this epic journey is only set to end in one place and that is the top flight of English football and it will be the Cinderella story to end all Cinderella stories. Apart from the beautiful, but ancient and too small stadium ( a new one is being built), everything is run along PL lines and has pretty much been so for 2-3 seasons, the players are treated like kings, but no prima donnas are allowed and everyone has to buy into the club ethos of looking to improve themselves constantly and to the incredible work ethic of everyone connected with the club, from the owner downwards. No one will ever leave Brentford a lesser person than when they arrived, regardless of what role they have fulfilled at the club and that alone, is a wonderful legacy for Matthew Benham.
Sign of a good team is how they bounce back from a defeat and after five straight wins and then an unlucky defeat at Huddersfield Town, the Bees have taken six points and scored six goals against Blackburn Rovers and Cardiff City and do look a team absolutely full of goals right now.
We discussed Ipswich at the weekend and they were very impressive in beating a lacklustre Midddlesbrough team. They had done a lot of homework and pressed Boro from the front and made it very difficult for the visitors to play their natural game, the Bees are not dissimilar to Boro so this will be very interesting from that aspect, but the hosts will have had a good look at that game and they spend endless hours on video analysis.The cramped conditions at Griffin Park will make for a very different game too and Town will not get such an easy ride as they did through the opening 45 minutes on Saturday. The doubts I offered about Town still stand, as the Boro team they faced was far removed from the one we have seen for most of this season and all 11 starters underperformed, but of course, should Town again impress today, we will have to revise that thinking. Hosts play an open style here and it is hard not to see chances at each end and both teams scoring and I suspect that the hosts will need at least two goals to get a result today, they have scored 21 in their last eight starts, two or more in seven and my choice is a repeat and my selection ......
1.5 units Brentford to score over 1.5 goals 2.10-2.15 general quote.
Premier League: Crystal Palace- Southampton
One swallow does not make a summer make and one win might not mean that the Saints are back on track, but it was an emphatic victory over Everton and they felt they had deserved far more from a couple of performances in that five match losing sequence and that they are in the top 5 on merit. Boss Ronald Koeman has already made concrete plans to further strengthen his squad in the January window and this week announced the loan signing (from January 3rd) of Eljero Elia from Werder Bremen, other incoming moves are planned and this should keep everyone on their toes. They lose Jose Fonte to suspension today, but are massively boosted by the return from suspension of Victor Wanyama and Morgam Schneiderlin from suspension and Dusan Tadic to training this week following injury.
Saints play Chelsea and Arsenal in their other two holiday games and will surely view today's game as the easiest three points on offer from that trio of games. They have won the last five league games against Palace without conceding and whilst the Eagles probably feel they also deserved more from recent games, their record of one win in eleven makes fairly dismal reading and they have struggled for clean sheets at home against all but the poorest PL teams and Saints are a long way from that. The playing surface at Selhurst Park is an ongoing concern and is going to be relaid, but Saints are known to prefer a heavily watered pitch in any case and I have seen them water at the break in games where it has rained right through the first half, so I suspect it might trouble them less than most.Saints are very comfortable on the ball and they will surely see plenty of it here with Palace averaging a PL low sub 36% of possession this season.Away win.
1.5 units Southampton -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
Premier League : Leicester City - Tottenham Hotspur
Briefly , City do not look good enough for the top flight, there is not enough real Premier League quality in the squad and a lot of the "wrong type" of players were signed in the summer. This is the type of game that the visitors normally thrive in and in recent campaigns have looked far happier on the road against struggling teams.This is something we have discussed many times , most recently ahead of a trip to Hull City and those notes are reproduced in full at the foot of this email. They made hard work of that , but won 2-1 and have subsequently won at Swansea City, losing at Chelsea in between, which is just about par for the course for them. The victory over the Swans is one of three straight Spurs have recorded, scoring eight goals in the process and they look too strong right now for a City team who were easily brushed aside by a below par West Ham United last weekend and two Hammers fans told me they were far and away the worst team they have seen this season. Hosts continue to be without first choice goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel.
1.5 units Tottenham Hotspur -0.75 ball 2.56 asian line/Sportmarket.
Premier League: WBA- Manchester City
City served us very well with four winning bets at good odds around the turn of the month, they have now won eight in a row, keeping cleansheets in their last four, they have continued to win and score, despite losing talismanic striker Sergio Aguero to injury and three aginst Palace and two on the road to Roma prove they still pose an offensive threat, with or without the prolific frontman. The return to action of David Silva and to form of Yaya Toure have been key .
Albion are probably better than the league table suggests and do pose a threat up front with their pace, but they have been far too negative under coach Alan Irvine and he has only changed that approach once his job was clearly in danger and the club in trouble. We have seen a far more attacking game plan against Aston Villa and QPR, but the Villans are toothless and it came at the loss of three goals at Loftus Road and I suspect it will be similarly costly eventually today. The Baggies have won just four home games in 2014, which highlights further how they are uncomfortable when the onus is on them to make the running and they are 0-1-8 in their last nine meetings with City.
I cannot see much down side with this quote, City have an "easy" run of fixtures over the holiday and will be looking to close that three point gap on Chelsea, ahead of a trip to Stamford Bridge at the end of the month and I expect them to be very hungry for the points today.
1.5 units Manchester City -1 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
Championship: Middlesbrough - Nottingham Forest
Boro let us and themselves down at Ipswich Town last weekend and I expect a major reaction today in front of a massive holiday crowd. That, if any were needed, should provide additional motivation, the hosts have made every effort to get crowds up in a cash strapped area of the country and tend to perform above themselves when attendances rise above 25,000 and this should be circa 30,000. They have no new injuries to contend with and are very close to full strength, but still have the words of angry boss Aitor Karanka ringing in their ears after he read them the riot act after a totally "unacceptable" performance last week.
The club and Karanka got a big boost this week with Hull City assistant manager Steve Agnew agreeing to come and take on the same role at Boro, this is a big signing and another statement of intent after all the money spent in the summer, which if you need reminding, was in last Saturday's preview. Mood is not so good at Forest, Tom Ince was recalled from his loan by parent club Hull City and they have been placed under a transfer embargo by the League. The visitors are coming with a "not to lose" mindset and will probably go with a 3-5-2 formation again, which is a recent change and they will sit deep and not put Boro under the kind of pressure that they faced and which unsettled them at Portman Road, still no Andy Reid or Chris Cohen in the Forest team and until they are back from long term injury, we can look to oppose the visitors.
1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.75 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Premier League : Hull City- Tottenham Hotspur
A few home truths have been told at White Hart Lane over the international break, coach Mauricio Pochettino and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris spoke openly about the attitude of some of the players ,several have come under intense media scrutiny and will be watched closely today and I do expect a positive reaction. This is the kind of match that Spurs have thrived in over recent seasons, on the road against bottom half teams, away from the pressure cooker atmosphere that WHL has now become.
We discussed Tottenham pre season .......
Tottenham sold Gareth Bale last season, spent all the money on a bunch of promsing new signings (much like Liverpool this season) and tried to shoehorn as many of them as possible into the starting eleven from the word go. With hindsight, that was never going to work and seven months after guiding them to a club record 72 points, André Villas-Boas was dismissed and replaced by the polar opposite Tim Sherwood, with the team going from a defence first policy, to no defence at all ! The newbies all needed time, few flourished and things could hardly have gone worse, but there were still positives to take from a 6th place finish, "just" 17 points adrift of champions Manchester City. They more of less played as well on the road as the top 4, but were less efficient at White Hart Lane. Towards the end of March I spoke of their problems against the bigger clubs ....Spurs are "flat track bullies" in that they have taken one point from a possible 21 against the top 4 teams, a whopping 52 from 69 against the rest ! Winning 7 from 11 at home, or 64%, that alone suggest they are value today at circa 45%.
They won that day and ended up with 68 points from a possible 90 against the "rest" of the EPL. It is hard to see them doing quite so badly this season in the big games and a little improvement will take them very close to the top 4 and to winning the handicap. Mauricio Pochettino has taken charge and has not overly tinkered with the squad, but Ben Davies and Michael Vorm from Swansea City look good business to strengthen up what was a porous defence at times and England U21 centre back Eric Dier has arrived from Sporting Lisbon. Last year's big money signings, Lamela, Chiriches, Eriksen, Soldado, Paulinho, Chadli and Capoue, will all know more about the EPL now, Andros Townsend is fit after only playing 12 times and it is hard not to see them at least flirting with the top 4 if they got off to a solid start. Emmanuel Adebayor and Soldado have been amongst the goals in pre season and one or two players are still likely to arrive before transfer deadline day. Spurs will definitely be more tactically astute under Pochettino than Sherwood and if he can instill a little more belief against the top 4 teams they could have a very solid campaign. In the last five seasons they have averaged 70 points never finishing lower than sixth, or with less than 69 points, I see improvement in them, either from the coaching side, or via more settled/established players, or both and another 5-6 points is likely and that could see them in the Champions League places if one of the main contenders slips up.
Ahead of their last away game, a trip to Aston Villa I updated .....It has been a poor start for them so far, with just 11 points earned, but a two goal win today could take them as high as 7th and it has been largely as there were from last season, struggling at WHL and against the big name teams, although on the road they did manage a draw with Arsenal, win at West Ham United and drew 2-2 with Sunderland, where 1-5 would have been a fairer reflection of the game. So, similar in many ways to what we saw last season, they are far more comfortable away from home and against the "lesser" teams.
Spurs won that 2-1, but made very hard work of it after falling behind early, which has been an issue, they conceded after 16 minutes there and have allowed four inside 20 minutes in their five defeats this season and have too often been playing catch up. That might not be such an issue today, as Hull City are the only team who have conceded more goals inside the open 15 minutes of games in the EPL . Hosts have not scored in three starts and were poor in a 1-0 defeat at Burnley immediately before the break and this looks a good opportunity for the visitors to record yet another road win against lower half of the table opponents. City were getting so out battled in midfield by a Clarets team who had been struggling in that area all season, that boss Steve Bruce brought on three midfielders before the hour mark and there is every liklelihood that they will be asked even more questions this afternoon. Spurs would move level on points with Arsenal with the win, which is always an incentive, any other result, especially with games against Everton and Chelsea up next, is going to leave them looking over their shoulder and not towards the top of the table.
1.5 units Tottenham -0.5 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.