The clubgowi newsletter service: One of a kind

Apr 05, 2014

I do not pretend to win every day, or week, that would just be ridiculous and as I have told you many times, the only 100% sure thing and there is not much you can say that about in gambling, is that I will bet 600 + losers in 2014. What is almost as certain, is that the clubgowi newsletter service will make readers who follow it long term and bet all red type selections, somewhere between 100 and 300 times their unit stake over the 12 months. That is not "guaranteed", you will never hear me say that, but it is far and away the most likely thing to happen.

I had a terrible day on Thursday (they WILL happen) , following a pretty good Wednesday, you can view those notes on this link , yesterday I had three red type selections which all won (see below) at odds of 2.36, 2.02 and 2.33.

That was good , but I also drone on and on about how the service is about more than basic results and what I wrote yesterday and what you will never see in results and ROI, was that Niort were likely to be strong in the middle third, they scored in the 31st minute. Arles were likely to be much better in the second half, which they won 2-0. That Marseille were likely to win 3-1/3-2/4-2....they won 3-1, that both should score...they did and that Ajaccio were likely to concede far more after the break, which was when OM scored two of their three goals.

So the subscribers prepared to do just a little work themselves, are going to be able to push those 100-300 x unit stake profits up WAY further.

I have a number of full time players who subscribe to the newsletter and if they feel they can learn and earn from the notes, imagine how much most of you could get out of them for a couple of euros per day.

I will be posting again later in the day, please check back.

Good Luck.

Friday April 4th

Next newsletter will be sent at 10.00 UK time on Saturday.

France:

Ligue 2

Niort-Dijon

Dijon arrive without full back Cédric Varrault (15-1-0 who started on the left side of the backline in the last four games) and right back Pape Paye (25-0-0) and the coach has apparently chosen to leave out left winger Romain Philippoteaux ( 27-5-4), alongside experienced strikers Thil and Kone,who have fallen out of favour, going with two youngsters as striking options alongside Tavares. We spoke about some odd team selections from Olivier Dall’Oglio early season and I am all for shaking things up, but his selections are not working and his team are without a win in six starts.They arrive in 9th, but are only 4 points off third spot and a win today would be hugely valuable, I feel they will have to go for it, as we are running out of games, this is arguably the "easiest" opponent they will face in the next two weeks and with so many teams above them, a draw is likely to see several pull further ahead. Only one road win for Dijon all season ( nine draws) and looking for the three points away from home, is likely to take them out of their comfort zone. They are missing both regular full backs and it seems wrong under the circumstances to leave Philippoteaux out, as it would have given Niort something to worry about on the left if nothing else.

The hosts are strong out wide offensively, through

Luigi Glombard (18-4-1) and Florian Martin (25-5-7) and one or both could have a lot of joy today. They will go into the top 3 with a win, unless Angers also claim three points and could do so anyway with a "big" victory .Niort are close to full strength and I strongly favour them today. There are some recent notes on them as background information on this link.

1.5 units Niort -0.75 ball 2.36 asian line/Ibramarket.

Niort are 8-1 (goals scored-conceded ) at home through the middle third (31st -60th minute), but not much which leaps off the page in terms of stats we could use.

Niort : Delecroix, Roche - Lahaye, Bong, Pallois, Chelle, Bernard - Koukou, Diaw, Roye, Fleurival, Glombard, Martin - Sala, Lafourcade, Houla.

Dijon : Lecomte, Perraud - Bamba, Diallo, Paulle, Souprayen - Marié, Cissé, Baradji, Mulumba, Gastien, Amalfitano, Bérenguer - Babit, Diony, Tavares.

Arles- Angers

Somehow, Angers have managed to hold onto a top three spot, despite winning just once in ten starts inside 90 minutes, they have managed two Coupe de France wins after extra time, which has seen them make the semi-finals of the biggest domestic cup competition, so an incredibly strong season from them, but maybe signs that it is catching up with them.

Arles are without a win in nine, but are very tough to beat at home (7-7-1) and need to get back to winning ways as soon as possible. This looks a pretty good opportunity, they are without suspended defensive midfielder Julien Cardy (25-1-0....conceded five goals in the last two games he has missed) and centre back Gaël Givet (22-1-0 , but did beat Metz and Tours here in his absence and drew at Dijon last week).

Angers got a boost with Mohamed Yattara (23-9-0) being given permission to play, after his suspension was reduced to just one game, which has already been served. However, not all good news and defensive midfielder Ismaël Keïta (30-0-2) misses out, they are 1-3-3 when he plays an hour or less and he will be missed.

Seven of Angers last 8 games have produced at least two goals and Arles last six have seen at least two, both are defensively weakened today and the very least I expect is both to score, but with the goal line set so low , I have to opt for 1.5 units "over" 2 goals 2.02 asian line/Ibramarket.

Stats wise this is very interesting: Arles are 3-4 goals (scored-conceded), before the break, 12-1 after, 10-0 in the final 30 minutes. Angers are a strong 10-5 on the road in the first half, but have conceded 53% of away goals in that final 30 minutes.

Arles have collected 21 points before the break, 51 after it, they are 4-4-0 when level at home at half time and taken points from 4 of five matches in which they trailed, which is incredibly strong.

I would suggest 1 unit Arles at the break (half time) if level and as always 11 v 11, but would up this to at least 1.25 units if they were behind.

Arles-Avignon : Butelle, N. Yattara - Cantini, Quintin, Abdelhamid, Fortes, N’Diaye, Gigot, Dias, Coulomb, Rodriguez, Mendes, Dalé, Nabab, Delclos, El Gabas.

Angers : Malicki, Marfaing - Angoula, Bouka Moutou, Boyer, Hénin, Konate, Thomas - Auriac, Ben Othman, Boufal, Frikeche, Gamboa - Ayari, Blayac, Socrier, M. Yattara

Ligue 1 : Marseille -Ajaccio

OM are in a very disappointing run and have won just once in seven starts and are simply not playing very well, they found a last minute equaliser at Sochaux last week, which was expensive for both the hosts and us, so are not my favourite team at the moment and even their loyal fans are deserting them, with a very low crowd expected this evening. They owe those that do turn up a performance and some entertainment. Last week I wrote .......OM are not going to finish top 3 and would doubtless view a Europa League spot as surplus to requirements. I suspect the planning for next season has already started and that motivation for some games, will be hard to come by and more likely to come at home.

This is not a fixture that will get the home players pulse's racing, but it is one where they are going to get plenty of space to exploit and we know that Ajaccio are not going to sit back. They are coming off a 2-2 home draw with Toulouse, ahead of which my notes read .......How is this not going to be a wide open encounter ?

Ajaccio are Ligue 2 bound , but are trying to postpone the fateful day as long as possible and have opened up and are scoring, witness the come from behind 3-2 win at Valenciennes last weekend when I wrote ...."Ajaccio are planning for Ligue 2, but have found a few goals recently and scored in 7 of their last 8, including at Lyon and twice at Nantes. Valenciennes do not often do things the easy way and despite that solid run at home recently, have conceded in each of those five games. I feel they might do so again, but cannot see beyond the home win and every time I look at this fixture, the 3-1 scoreline is staring back at me.

That was the scoreline when the two met in Corsica and Valenciennes also won this 3-0 last season, so have scored six in the last two h2h meetings. I am backing the hosts and will "cover" on the over 3.5 goal line which has obliged in 4 of Ajaccio's last six starts and in 2 of 4 for the home team, a reasonable chance for us to collect on both."

We at least had the four + goals and Ajaccio conceded two or more, for the sixth game in a row. Going forward they look strong and a couple of offensive players might be playing top flight football next season, but the club will not ! You could have driven a bus through some of the holes in their defence last week and Valenciennes must be kicking themselves that they did not win that huge game.

OM won the reverse fixture 3-1 and that is the minimum scoreline I see tonight 3-1, 3-2, 4-2 something like that. I was toying with both to score at 2.10 + and feel that Ajaccio to score twice at 6.0-7.0 offers value as this could easily develop into a shoot out. They have scored two in each of their last two away starts and were on the scoresheet at Lyon recently and I just don't see them being too cautious this evening and as we detailed last week, several players are probably more interested in showcasing their individual talents than the team collective at present. However, I will opt for 1.5 units "over" 3 goals 2.33 asian line/Ibramarket.

Ajaccio have conceded 73% of all away goals after the break.

Marseille: S.Mandanda, B.Samba – So.Diawara, Fanni, L.Mendes, B.Dja Djedje, Ben.Mendy, J.Morel, Nkoulou – Imbula, Lemina, A.Ayew, Valbuena, Be.Cheyrou, Romao – Payet, Gignac, Khalifa.

Ajaccio: Ochoa, O.Sissoko – Perozo, Nadeau, Dielna, Bonnart, Tonucci, M.Leca, Remiti – André, Lasne, S.Diarra, R.Faty, Mostefa, Pedretti – Tallo, A.Camara, I.Baradji.

Good Luck.

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