Clubgowi have had eight NFL selections over the last two weeks, six of the seven game bets were winners (by an average 16 points), all were very easy to bet at average odds of over 2.10. The other was our Super Bowl pick ( see below) the last three of which have produced winners at odds of 25-1 (
link) and 4-1
(link), plus a runner up at 14-1 who traded at MASSIVE odds on !
Football (soccer) is our bread and butter, but we are VERY good at golf, WTA and NFL, which statistically have been my best sports over the last two decades.
At this time of year, NFL constitutes about 10% of clubgowi output, a service for the thinking bettor that has made outrageous returns for eight and a half years, but is about so much more.
19/10 San Francisco Rams @ Denver Broncos....... 1.5 units Denver Broncos -7 points 2.07 Pinnacle Sports/vegas line/Sportmarket Pro.....(2.11 for 31k + with Matchbook on Sportmarket Pro ). Won !
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts......1.5 points Indianapolis Colts -3.5 points 2.10 Pinnacle Sports/vegas line/Sportmarket Pro. Won !
Seattle Seahawks @ St Louis Rams.......1.5 units Seattle Seahawks -7 points 2.08 Pinnacle Sports/vegas line/Sportmarket Pro.
13/10 : San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams 13/10 .......1.5 units San Francisco 49ers -3.5 points 2.0 general quote .... 2.09 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro. Won !
12/10 Denver Broncos @ New York Jets 12/10 ........1.5 units Denver Broncos -10 points 2.10 Pinnacle/Matchbook/Sportmarket Pro. Won !
Washington Redskins @Arizona Cardinals ..........1.5 units Arizona Cardinals -3.5 points 2.12 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro. Won !
09/10 Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans ......1.5 units Indianapolis Colts -3 points 2.09 Pinnacle Sports/vegas line/Sportmarket. Won !
Super Bowl XLIX written 09/10
I wanted to wait a few weeks before betting a team to win the Super Bowl as my idea of the leading contenders were set to meet and I wanted to watch those games first, even if it meant taking lower odds.
My thinking ( as usual) is that most of the stronger teams are in the NFC, no surprise for long term readers there, but all four divisions look ultra competitive and there are few "givens" this season, I do not have any real problem with the Seahawks as favourites this year, but we have not had any team repeat since the Patriots in 2005 and not only are they in a very tough section, where I have huge respect for the 49ers (despite their off field issues) and the Cardinals, but as champions, they have a tough looking schedule in any case and playing the Giants, Kansas, Philly, the Cards (twice) and 49ers (twice) in a seven week stretch ( W10-16) is about as tough as it can possible get and will take it's toll at some stage. The same is true to some degree of San Francisco and Arizona.....an incredibly tough section, but one which will will leave the (likely) two teams coming through it, battle hardened .
The East is not much easier, obviously most of you will appreciate that I like the Eagles, but the Cowboys and Giants are improving and the Redskins can only get better, no easy divisional games and at some stage they are going to have to beat one, possibly two, of the big Western teams and that will be a big ask.
Anyway, this year and I do not do it too often, I am looking at the AFC to provide the winner and rather unoriginally, I am opting for the Denver Broncos. Last year I was confident that they would lose the decider to Seattle and in truth they were destroyed, we were with the Seahawks outright and I "suggested" four bets in the final (see below) all of which won, including at odds of up to 7.50 , they do not feature in results, but highlight the value that can be found in the content, for those prepared to look.
I guess they are hoping not to have to face Seattle in February, but footballers are a strange breed and maybe most are hoping that they do, they have already exorcised some of those demons to a certain degree, having faced the Seahawks on the road this season, where the champions won 26-20 in overtime. However, there was plenty for the Broncos to take from the game, coming back from a two touchdown deficit to force extra time and Peyton Manning will have been pleased if not by the ultimate result, then by his 300 + yards and two TD passes, moving the ball 80 yards in the final minute of regulation time against the best defense in football, only a great leader and offensive unit could do that and that is what Manning and the Broncos are.
Peyton in now 38 years old, but appears to have lost little and that drive in Seattle proved once again that when the clock is running down and you have to score, there is no one you would sooner have leading your troops into battle, he has won 81% of regular season games since returning from missing the whole of 2011 with injury and any remaining doubts about how that affected him, have long since disappeared and the fantastic footballing brain of this most intellegent of players, is clearly still in it's prime and his arm and eye not too far off. His third year in Denver feels about right for the win and a second Super Bowl victory for Manning would be the least he deserves. Last year he threw for 55 TD's and 5,477 which are both NFL all time records and this is probably the most explosive offense in NFL history.
Manning will get a little more time this season to do his thing with the return of pro bowler Ryan Clady , after the offensive tackle missed most of last season, he had played all 16 games in each of his five seasons prior to that, one of only three players from the 2008 draft to do so. The Broncos backroom staff made upgrading the defense a priority, they signed cornerback Aqib Talib from the Patriots in a $57m deal and safety T.J. Ward from Cleveland, plus Dallas pass rusher DeMarcus Ware, the Cowboys all time sack leader. They kind of broke the bank to get these guys in, it will cause salary cap issues at some stage and it is kind of all the eggs in one basket scenario, but that need not worry us and it is easy to understand why they are trying this while Manning is still at, or near the peak of his powers. Anyway, the second best team in the NFL last season, with the best offense , has got stronger in all areas and I simply cannot see any team in their Conference stopping them from another shot at the Super Bowl. Their remaining schedule looks fair and what could be their crunch divisional game with San Diego comes in 16 days time, two things about that, it is on a Thursday and in Denver, no travel for the Broncos who are at home on the Sunday and the quick turnaround favours the veteran QB who has thrown 35 TD passes in Thursday games.
As a Denver journalist said pre season,
the money spent in the off season wasn't to build a dynasty, it was to buy a Super Bowl and IMO it looks money well spent and in the right areas.
2 units Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl 5.0 general quote .
Good Luck.
Super Bowl XLVIII: (written February 2nd, 2014)
Ok, not quite the excitement of the 49ers (odds 15.0) last year, or the euphoria of the Saints (odds 26.0) in 2010, but we at least got our outright selection (see below) back to the "big show" and have 5.0 for what is at worse IMO, a coin toss. To be honest, I made the Seahawks a small favourite and if I was not involved, would be happy to take them at circa 2.10-2.15 today.
The horror show weather predictions have not materialised and the game should be played in decent conditions, certainly nothing that the two teams, who both play outdoors cannot handle. The concerns that we would be playing in an ice storm stopped the usual stampede for tickets, instead it was just a mad rush and you can get a seat
like this at a bargain (!) $1,700 plus taxes !
Key to the game and the Seahawks to a large degree is what we discussed ahead of the Championship game, Marshawn Lynch has to be able to run, to set up the play action pass.....
The Niners won that 19-17, kicking the winning points with 26 seconds remaining, we still won our bet which was good and I suspect that if Seattle had absolutely needed the win that day, they would have got it and with a degree of comfort. San Francisco have served us well over recent weeks, but trips to Green Bay and Carolina will have taken their toll, whereas the Seahawks have not left Seattle in a month and will surely strip fresher. My thinking that they match up well with the 49ers ais unchanged and my only concern has been their recent failure to convert on third downs which they have managed just 30% of the time over the last five games, it has made it harder for them to play their natural game and limited the number of times they can run the ball. When they can move the ball on the ground it allows Russell Wilson to go into play action pass (this is a fake play which appears to be a run, but is infact a pass.... sneaky !) mode and Seahawks do this better than most. Good news here is that Marshawn Lynch had his first 100 yard plus game in six againt the Saints last week and Seattle have had over 170 yards of running offense at Century Link Field, in each of the last two visits from their bitter rival. I made this a six point game, so even though we are on outright, I will take a little on the home team.
He did so against the Saints and 49ers, with 50 runs for just shy of 250 yards and three touchdowns, they are both top five ranked defenses which the Broncos are not, he , like the Seahawks, has stepped up in all the "big" games, something we have touched upon several times and I expect that we will see the best of Lynch, Richard Sherman defensively and the Seahawks today.
There are a whole host of prop bets offered on the Super Bowl, some of which I like, but two things, one they are all Seattle related (of course) and secondly, betting limits are very low.
Therefore , I do not see any need in spending too long on these, but if you are not already on the Seahawks and want an interest of some sort....
Seahawks to lead at half and full time 3.0 +, there is 3.11 with Pinnacle and up to 3.60 ,albeit for tiny sums on Betfair, but a good chance to get matched at 3.40 + through the day I guess.
I also like Seattle to win at least two quarters with Pinnacle @ 2.10 .
The Broncos lost three regular season games , losing at least two quarters in each and also trailed at the half in two and there are many ways you can lose two quarters and win a ball game..
If you want something speculative.... Seattle to win by 13+ points is available at around 7.50 in a place or two and given that the Seahawks have won a couple of "big" match ups by wide margin scores, that looks too big.
Super Bowl XLVIII (written 14/11, 2013)
This is going to be the first Super Bowl to be played outdoors in cold weather and will favour teams that are used to playing end of season Championship games in such conditions, but the problem is that they have to get there first and I am looking for the most likely team to do that and will worry more about how the MetLife Stadium will suit them, once they have booked their place .
Looking at the outright market, I feel the Broncos are too short for me, given that they are still not even ranked number one in their own division yet and have to play the Chiefs twice and the Patriots on the road. They probably have to win both match ups with Kansas ( the first is this weekend) just to secure the number one position and under the circumstances, I feel the circa 3.75 is on the skinny side.
Last year we were very keen on the 49ers and I still wake up in a cold sweat from time to time with first and goal from the eight yard line etched on my brain. They should have won, the only team that handed that SF defense a real spanking last season were the Seattle Seahawks in a late regular season game at Century Link Field (42-13). Seattle ended the regular season with five straight wins , scoring an incredible 150 points in a three game streak, within that sequence.
That was their first winning season under Pete Carroll, his third at the helm, in the first of those he made an unheard of circa 200 transactions and the Seahawks were always going to take a while to develop and become his team. It kind of happened on that day, against the 49ers, they then went and won on the road in Washington in the Wildcard game, keeping a Redskins team who had looked impressive under RG3, scoreless for three quarters. Next up they went to the number one ranked Atlanta Falcons and were 20 points down at the half, they scored 28 second half points and were ahead, before the Falcons kicked a field goal with 8 seconds remaining.
I think that was more about a lack of experience for the team and coach and I feel they will have learned a tremendous amout from that. They have had an easy schedule this season, but are 9-1 and look booked for the number one spot in the NFC, you can see how the playoffs would look "if the season ended today", on this link to the NFL website. That would ensure a week off in the post season and only playoff games at Century Link Field, widely regarded as the noisiest stadium in the NFL. They hold a three game edge currently over the 49ers and two over the New Orleans Saints, who play this weekend, not both can win ! If it is SF, that will almost certainly give Seattle, who are 12 point favourites to win this weekend a three game buffer over the field, if it is New Orleans, that will make it tough for the Niners to even make the post season and these three teams, along with Carolina, look the most likely contenders from the NFC. Seahawks get their bye week after this, playing the Saints and 49ers after that, before an easy looking finish including two home games to complete the regular season. There is a good chance they will be the number one ranked team and for them to enter the post season in good shape and maybe even to conserve a little energy over the last week or two.
They hit the ground running in 2013, even in pre season when they were 4-0 and in all of those and half of their regular season games (9 from 14 in total), they have kept their opponent to under 14 points. They look well balanced and quarterback Russell Wilson is the real deal, his numbers have been very impressive and were put up with his offensive line missing key players. The Seahawks blog wrote this about him earlier in the week...
"Wilson has the NFL’s fifth-highest passer rating (101.8) among qualifiers, trailing only the likes of Manning (121.0), Brees (108.9), Aaron Rodgers (108.0) and Philip Rivers (105.9) through Week 10. By record and statistically, Wilson is the best performer this season among the “big four” youngsters (Wilson, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick), and is tied for the league lead with four game-winning drives.
The raw numbers: Wilson has completed 163 of his 257 passing attempts for the league’s 10th-best completion percentage at 63.4. He has thrown 17 touchdowns to just six interceptions, and also has a score on the ground.
Wilson has run the ball more than any other quarterback, rushing 70 times (including 35 scrambles after dropping back to pass) for a total of 395 yards. That rushing yardage ranks Wilson 28th in the NFL, and he also is second in the league with 5.6 yards per rushing attempt — not just among quarterbacks, but everyone.
Meanwhile, with 330 rushing attempts, the Seahawks have run the ball more than any other team in the NFL through 10 weeks. They have kept it on the ground in 55.5 percent of their offensive snaps, meaning Wilson hasn’t even had the chance to accumulate statistics like Manning and Brees."
The whole franchise is hungry for success, they have a incredibly well balanced running and passing game and solid defense and are going to improve with three key players set to return to action in the next week or so and make a strong team, who have just exorcised that Falcons loss with a 33-10 win in the Georgia Dome, even stronger. I expect them to make the trip to an icy New Jersey in February . 1.75 units Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl 5.0 +... there is a little higher in places if you shop around.
