Three weeks in.... the year so far !

football betting tips -

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January has gone incredibly well for members of the full service, we have had 90 bets, staked 113.25 units and are winning 26.5 units for a ROI of +23.4% and we already have a tied in profit on the Australian Open Women's Singles, not yet included in those figures.

We have previewed three new events today, with selections at odds of between 1.97 and 6.0 and subscribers will receive two newsletters on each of the next three days, all at scheduled times.

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Coupe de France: PSG-Montpellier

We discussed PSG and their domestic cup involvement just before Christmas when they hosted St Etienne and we backed the visitors with the handicap start and at big odds to record the straight win ...

PSG are still in a three way battle for the Ligue 1 title and host third placed Lille on Sunday. This season is surely all about the Champions League and retaining their domestic title, they do not need further involvement in this competition which will mean two more games in early 2014 before their two legs with Bayer Leverkusen in the CL, a draw they were surely delighted with .
 
Obviously, it is almost impossible for the Parisians not to name a strong squad, but central defender Alex (20-1-1 all comps) and Zlatan (23-22-8) are suspended and starting full backs Maxwell and Christophe Jallet are injured, along with keeper Salvatore Sirigu, who has played every minute of every competive game PSG have played this campaign, first match he missed last season was a loss to Nice. All will be missed, defensively they look a little more vunerable today, no team is better without Ibrahimovic and motivation is questionable.
 

We landed the handicap part, but came up just short with the away win, with the match going the way of the Parisians in extra time.

Hosts have now opened up a five point lead at the top of the table , but are still heavily involved in four competitions and you feel something will have to give at some stage. Having said that, it is almost impossible for them not to name a strong squad and anyone getting the chance to play, is motivated to impress. However, those original arguments remain and tonight Christophe Jallet, Adrien Rabiot and Ezequiel Lavezzi are missing.

Montpellier are much improved under their new coach and we discussed them ahead of their 1-1 draw with Monaco earlier this month....

....just a few words about the Ligue 1 match, Monaco have an incredible record in the series and are 15-5-0 in the last 20 h2h meetings, including winning eight here in Montpellier.

We discussed the home side ahead of their 1-0 defeat to St Etienne last month ...
 

"We have only looked at one Montpellier game this season, their home start against Nantes last month ....Hosts have been struggling for some time and won just twice (six draws ) this season and just four times in 22 starts over an eight month period, today they will be without ever present central defender Hilton ( 11-1-0..... Montpellier were 0-3-5 without him last season), left back Siaka Tiéné (6-2-0), defensive midfielder Joris Marveaux ( 7-0-0), long term injured right back Garry Bocaly and suspended midfielder Jonas Martin . They played pretty much a full squad in midweek and it backfired big time, with MHSC losing to Sochaux in extra time and picking up injuries and a red card and finishing the game, in gruelling conditions after 120 minutes, with eight men on the pitch ! That cranked up the pressure on boss Jean Fernandez, who has already been heavily criticised.
 

We were "robbed" of a full win in that game, by a late and unjust Montpellier equaliser, the hosts have continued in similar vein since, with three draws and two defeats, so now just four wins in 28 matches, across nine months. They are without suspended central defender Hilton (14-1-0) and have tended to struggle without him, going winless through the 11 starts he has missed over the last two seasons (0-6-5), also missing is centre/right back Daniel Congré (15-0-0), this duo are amongst the first names on the team sheet and with Montpellier without a cleansheet in ten, it is easy to see some offensive joy for St Etienne . By the way, Bocaly (see above) is still missing, which is why Congré has been covering and that looks a problem area today ."

They have posted a 0-0 draw at Bastia and win against lower level opposition in the cup since and new coach Rolland Courbis feels they have reasons to be more optimistic this evening, after consecutive cleansheets and with new loanee M'Baye Niang from AC Milan, scoring on his debut. They are also in better shape team news wise with Hilton,Tiéné, Marveaux, Martin and Congré (see above) all back now, the hosts are certainly talking up a good game, but let's see.

 
They followed up with a hugely valuable win at Sochaux at the weekend and now have a little breathing space over the drop zone and I expect them to give this a real go this evening. Defensively they have performed pretty well all season and have only conceded three goals in their last six starts (all comps).
 
Tonight they are without suspended fringe midfielder Jonas Martin and left winger Anthony Mounier (18-2-1) , but neither are regular starters this season, with Mounier playing an average of 48 minutes in his appearances, although he did score at the weekend. They have no new injuries.
 

If we are to clutch at straws, PSG look a little vunerable on the right flank and might not be willing to risk Gregory van der Wiel in the cup, who is the only viable alternative to Jallet and they will be scuppered if he is injured. In the cup game at Bordeaux last midweek, they went with teenage central defender Marquinhos out of position on this side and were very exposed at times, if they opt to do so again, it will be a real opportunity for the visitors. Montpellier have scored seven goals in Paris on their last four visits, two or more in three and there are some big odds for them to do likewise this evening, but I prefer both teams to score at circa 2.20-2.375 and I will put that up for 1.25 units. PSG have conceded in 7 of their last 8 starts in all comps.

Montpellier: Jourdren, Pionnier - Assoumin, Congré, Deplagne, El Kaoutari, Hilton, Mezague, Tiéné - Cabella, Marveaux, Saihi, Sanson, Stambouli - Camara, Deza, Montaño, Niang, Tinhan.

Good Luck.

 
 
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