I have previewed nine matches/events for subscribers today. Six in the first newsletter an edited copy of which is below and three in the follow up.
Please do not make any assumptions about partial previews, there are often counter arguments to any notes about one team and analysis can easily lead to another conclusion.....
Premier League : West Ham United- Southampton
The Hammers have really picked themselves up after those two very heavy domestic cup defeats to Nottingham Forest and Manchester City at the turn of the year and boss Sam Allardyce was vindicated with his team selection in those games and the quite right decision to concentrate on Premier League survival. Likewise the board at Upton Park, who refused to press the panic button and kept faith with the hugely experienced coach, who is a past master at keeping teams in the top flight. The rewards have come and the Irons have taken 13 points from their last six starts and kept clean sheets in five of those, including their last four.
Allardyce showed similar loyalty to his captain Kevin Nolan, after the midfielder was sent off twice either side of the Christmas holiday period at a time when boss and club needed him. He has flourished since his return and has scored four times in his last three appearances. He actually has five goals and three assists in his last seven starts and it is his return to form, as much as the return from injury of Andy Carroll which is been the catalyst for their much improved form.
Carroll serves the last game of his three match ban today, but United have no new injury concerns and the squad suddenly looks strong again and players have been allowed out on loan to get playing time.
The defence has looked watertight recently, with the James Boys , Collins and Tomkins back in the middle and George McCartney able to now play in his correct position on the left side of the backline.
I feel that a full strength West Ham are a top ten side and said as much in pre season, they were very unlucky with injuries early in the campaign, but I do not see them as hugely inferior to Saints on a going day and like the Hammers with the start this afternoon. The Hammers have lost an EPL high 14 points from winning positions and if Carroll had been fit from day 1, they would be withing touching distance of Southampton in 8th IMO.
With no FA Cup involvement the hosts have had 11 days to solely prepare for this, Saints were unbeaten in eight starts in all competions before last weeks loss at cup experts Sunderland and will want to bounce back, but in truth, they have very little to play for in the league and seem sure to finish either 8th or 9th and motivation between now and the end of the campaign, might be a problem at times. 1X game for me. 1.5 units West Ham United +0.25 ball 1.92 asian line/Ibramarket.
Championship: Yeovil Town- Doncaster Rovers
This is another of those two struggling team games we do so well with and once again I expect goals. Rovers arrive with a six point lead over the drop zone, but have played more games than all the teams below them and are a much smaller club than the three immediately above them in the table and know they are still very much in the relegation scrap. They have a very tough schedule of fixtures over the next month, including trips to Burnley, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United and will be eyeing up a maximum return this afternoon.
Town are six points from safety and need to start winning home games to have any chance of survival. They have struggled for goals and only Charlton Athletic have scored fewer this season, but they have been creating chances , they have trips to Reading, QPR, Wigan and Leicester City, who might well be 4 of the 6 strongest Championship sides, next month and it is their form at Huish Park which will decide their fate. We have spoken previously about the size of the playing budget under which boss Gary Johnson, whom I have a huge amount of respect for, is operating under, several League 2 clubs have more funds available and this was indicated by the fuss that was made over the circa £400k loss they made in getting to the Championship. They had made a small profit the previous four years, this is a club where the purse strings are usually kept tightly drawn and they are still very much run on lower league/non league lines and it should be remembered that they only came into the Football League a decade ago. Wayne Rooney with his new contract earns about 60% more in ONE month ,than Town operated for a full year on last season and they got promotion !
Chairman John Fry when speaking about the "loss" said: "On very limited resources, what my management team, players and staff achieved last season was nothing short of a miracle and it will be an even bigger achievement for the Glovers to retain their Championship status this season on the resources that Gary has to work with."
Football is not a level playing field and despite bucking the trend last season, money talks and Town are effectively playing with their hands tied behind their backs.....the rest of these notes are only available to clubgowi subscribers
Championship: Brighton- Wigan Athletic
Wigan boss Uwe Rosler has got the strong Athletic squad up and running , we spoke about both ahead of the recent win at inform Sheffield Wednesday.....
The early euphoria following Uwe Rosler's arrival at Wigan has subsided a little and they have suffered two road defeats, second of which was at Huddersfield Town on Saturday,a match played in awful conditions. However, they was plenty to like about their performance there and they looked what they are, a Championship side filled with top flight quality. I read about 15 reports on the game from Town supporters and all but one commented on how good a side Wigan looked, they are only seven points adrift of the top six , with two games in hand of Reading, who currently hold down the final playoff spot and I do expect the Latics to make a big push for a post season place.
This match was actually originally played in December, but abandoned after an hour, with Wigan leading 1-0 and to be honest, riding roughshod over Wednesday, despite the waterlogged pitch, Athletic looked a class above. The Owls have improved greatly since and are unbeaten in eleven starts in all comps. Rosler knows this and said yesterday :“Stuart Gray has done a marvellous job to change the characteristics of the team and they have much more energy about them now.“They are very good in transition and they counter attack really well, but they also have weaknesses and it’s up to us to expose those weaknesses just like we did at the beginning of December.“Sheffield Wednesday are a very different team to what they were in December.”
Rosler is a hardworking and thorough coach and he and his backroom team will have done a lot of homework, since the last meeting. With regard to his own team, he feels there is not much wrong.....
“We spent yesterday analysing Saturday’s game and today focused on getting ready for Sheffield Wednesday.“We were quite calm after the game because I thought and still think that we didn’t do many things wrong on Saturday.“There were a lot of positives, especially considering the weather conditions, but unfortunately we didn’t convert our chances.“At the moment we probably need more chances to score than other teams do and Huddersfield was a good example of that.“As long as we continue to create those chances and compete effectively as a team then the results will follow.”
He has no new injuries, but likes to rotate anyway and with 12 fixtures in the next 46 days, he definitely will, however, one thing I know for sure and that is that he will prioritise this fixture over the weekend trip to Cardiff City in the FA Cup, despite his team being holders, that is very much his way of doing things.
They won that 3-0, subsequently won at Cardiff City in the cup and beaten struggling Barnsley at home. The Latics are.....the rest of these notes are only available to clubgowi subscribers
Championship: Huddersfield Town- Sheffield Wednesday
We discussed Wednesday ahead of that 3-0 home loss to Wigan (see above) and I wrote this about them at the time ..
.I am not sure that Wednesday, who now have a large degree of safety in the Championship, but no realistic chance of a playoff push, will think similarly and their home game with struggling Charlton Athletic on Saturday, which would take them into the last 8 of the FA Cup, might be on their minds.
One area that Rosler and his team can expolit is central defence, with Oguchi Onyewu, Martin Taylor and Kamil Zayatte all injured, the hosts have been playing Miguel Llera in the middle of the backline, a player who is limited and one whom Uwe knows very well, having had him on lengthy loan at Brentford. Left back Reda Johnson (19-2-3) is also injured, Wednesday are 3-4-5 when he plays an hour or less and Wigan have the pace and talent to exploit his absence on that flank
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They have subsequently lost 1-0 at home to Derby County in a match they largely dominated, two things about that, their performance there gives the Wigan formline a boost and.... the rest of these notes are only available to clubgowi subscribers
League 1 : Brentford - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Oh my, this is a biggie ! Four tickets for this top of the table clash are burning a big hole in my pocket and it is an exciting prospect. I have felt all season that these were the best two teams in League 1 and have seen nothing to make me change my mind. Pre season notes on my beloved Bees are at the foot of the page , I have updated those many times and gave a mid term report at the end of November .....
The Bees started slowly and to be honest, have still not full hit their stride, that might seem an odd thing to say about a team who have won six of their last seven and drawn at the league leaders in the other match in that sequence, but it is true. I suspect they have played one 45 minute spell at close to their full potential over those seven games and that is why there is no limit to how far this club and group of players can go over the next few years. They were very unlucky in that they brought in Conor McAleny to allow them to play a certain way in particular games and he got injured early and it took a long time to find the right replacement , reorganise things and just for everything to gel, which it still hasn't 100%, but it is getting there. There were injuries to Jake Bidwell and Jonathan Douglas , who is very much the team leader and they lost their starting goalkeeper to the Premier League and then his back up was also injured ,all were missed and few other teams would have been able to stay in contention missing so many key players, possibly none at at this level. I have no doubts at all, that the only team that can compete with the Bees in terms of their squad is Wolverhampton Wanderers and I fully expect these two clubs to fill the top two places and gain automatic promotion. My thoughts on Leyton Orient, which are that they do not have the strength in depth and are too reliant on 4-5 key players are unchanged and I would be stunned, if they were strong enough to hang on in there over 46 matches. The Bees could name a second eleven without any of the players who started on Tuesday night and they would probably push for a playoff spot, they have a player Will Grigg, who scored 20 +goals in League 1 last season and who cost the Bees close to £600k a massive sum for a third tier team and he is struggling to even get a spot on the bench. This is a group of players with a good mix of youth and experience, but even the youngsters have plenty of games under their belt ( Bidwell is 20 and has almost 100 League appearances, likewise Adam Forshaw who is many peoples idea of the best young player in L1 ) and for me, they can only go one way. I put them up at circa 4.33 -4.50 for promotion pre season, they are now down to 2.70-2.875, but I think those are pretty decent odds and far better value than the 1.70 on Orient, which is a joke price in my opinion, Bees on course for a top 2 finish.
They have.........the rest of these notes are only available to clubgowi subscribers
League 2 : Mansfield Town- Fleetwood Town
Town did us a favour in midweek ahead of which I wrote ...
Fleetwood are a team we have discussed in great detail this season, the last time in depth, was ahead of a trip to then leaders, Scunthorpe United, at the end of last month in a televised game, when I wrote.......
"OK, this is a big game for Town whom I saw as most likely League 2 winners pre season and my notes, written at that time, are reproduced at the foot of the email. They will go top with the win tonight, replacing United and win , lose or draw, we have good value with our outright bet with Fleet trading at circa 1.44 for promotion this morning.
The visitors are coming off a 4-2 win at Burton Albion, another promotion rival on Saturday, where oddly , they scored all six goals ! To twice give up a lead to own goals and still run out fairly comfortable winners says a lot about the spirit at the club and it was a dominating performance, it was the third time the two clubs had met this season (once in the FA Cup), Albion had won both, but Town had learned a lot from the previous two and were really up for this. Burton boss Gary Rowett said : "Well I think first and foremost, that was by far the best Fleetwood have played against us this season and they made it very, very difficult for us".
We have been "with" Town for the last five years or so, from Conference North when I spotted them as a potential Football League team, through the National and into League 2 and maybe beyond. The first thing that caught my eye was that they paid a large six figure sum to completely upgrade their playing surface, that is the pitch, not the stadium, I know many league teams that would not even consider that sort of outlay, let alone a sixth tier team and it was clear that the board were serious and had long term plans and so it has proven. Right through those leagues they have signed good quality, whenever possible, always a little better than the league they were in required, looking forward each time, I touched upon this in the pre season notes. They also kept a big squad, which gave them alternatives and which we got a lot a lot of winners out of, especially in midweek games, when they were almost always stronger than less well funded opponents, who were not equipped for three games per week.
This season they have been a bit hit and miss, but with the turn of the year, have upped their game, winning all four starts and scoring ten goals in the process and that is not counting any in their own net ! David Ball, Jon Parkin and Antoni Sarcevic give them big offensive options, but a sign of their ambition, is that despite hitting form and scoring goals, they wanted to upgrade the squad in the window and made a couple of eye catching signings. Midfielder Alex Marrow re-signed on loan from Blackburn Rovers until the end of the season, he played four times for the Championship club this season and has slipped straight back into the groove here, having played 20 times for the Cod Army last season, on a previous loan. I also like the addition of Sunderland's 19 yo French striker Mikael Mandron, who has also joined until the end of the campaign, he has made two appearance off the bench for the Black Cats and after only just being upgraded to the U21 side, has 6 goals in 7 starts. They clearly think a lot of him at the EPL club and want him to get some league experience, he has only played an hour off the bench so far, but has already contributed two assists, he is very quick, has good vision and can hold the ball up, even two of those attributes gives him more than many players at this level. I understand that Jon Parkin (see below) has been really good and close to his best for the last month and whilst I joke about his size and he is a big old unit, at his best, he is way too good for League 2."
They played really well that day, drew 0-0 but dominated all but the very early stages and should have taken all three points, they have gone back to their inconsistent ways since in the league, with a win, draw and defeat from three starts, but they were matches they could/should have taken at least 7 points from and Fleet have been very wasteful in front of goal. Sandwiched inbetween those was a 3-1 home defeat to Chesterfield in the first leg of this tie, it was a similar story there and you can feel boss Graham Alexander's pain in this post match interview (Preview) (Preview) . He was very confident there that his team will get something from the return leg and will be pleased that they have conceded just once in their last two starts and are coming here on the back of a win at the weekend.
They won that 1-0, it was not enough to progress, but beating......the rest of these notes are only available to clubgowi subscribers
You can indulge me here, or not, I am out of time, but want to take something very small on .....
the rest of these notes are only available to clubgowi subscribers
Good Luck.
Football League 1 (written pre season)
Brentford have been well tipped up, pretty much across the board, we were on them last season at much bigger prices and I do feel that they were probably better value then, they came up just short, but most of us earned money out of them, so they do not owe us anything.
However, the Bees were one of the two best teams in League 1 last year, they are definitely stronger this season (I will talk about the new signings later), the division is weaker this time round IMO and the the squad which was one of the youngest , is a year older and a lot wiser. We have spoken often about how they tend to improve as a club in second/ third meetings against teams and that attention to detail and investment in backroom staff , will be even more valuable this season. We talked last season about any number of things that the Bees do ,which other teams at their level either do not have the resources for, or if they do, choose to spend their money elsewhere.
For example, Brentford have a Performance Analysis team which extends to 3-4 people, as opposed to one ,if they are lucky, at most third tier teams. They go through every players performance after games and sometimes even at the half time break if they have spotted something and this is done not just with the first team, but at developement level.
The club have put huge investment into the training pitch and Academy, which is run along the same lines as big european teams, Brentford were two weeks ago upgraded to Category Two Football Academy status, the only club outside the top two divisions to ever make this step up.
They have purchased land for a new stadium at Lionel Road and owner Matthew Benham, who is a lifetime supporter, has taken steps to secure the long term financing of the club and all these projects, should something happen to him and this is clearly the strongest Brentford have been on and off the pitch in 60 years.
They are not "throwing" money at the team, most of the big investment is in long term projects, but these facilities and approach do encourage players to want to come and in terms of loan deals, bigger clubs to be willing to let youngsters with potential come to Griffin Park, knowing they will be well looked after and they have an especially close relationship with Everton.
I also feel they were the best conditioned team in League 1 and this was highlighted by two sets of stats, firstly, when they scored their goals, with 50% coming in either the last 15 minutes of the first half (23% ... this is a big number) or the last 15 of the match (27%) and also the huge number of points they gained from losing positions (23).
I also explained about the set up of the backroom beyond manager Uwe Rosler and especially Director of Football Mark Warburton who was approached by a Premier League club last season ........ Premier League WBA have been courting Bees Director of Football Mark Warburton, I explained his role at the club last season to long term readers, he has put in place Medical and Performance Analysis teams that are the envied by many bigger clubs and it is this kind of development I speak when I say the club are run along lines of a Championship + club, they have been for 12-18 months and the trees they have planted and beginning to bear fruit. Warburton was flattered, but has chosen to stay at Brentford and I never doubted he would as he is a key part in the club, in what is a long term project, he said “It was very flattering to be even linked to such a senior role at a club of the stature of West Bromwich Albion. "However, I am part of an exciting project that is well underway at Griffin Park and it is only right that my focus should be to help take the club forward and achieve its aims and ambitions."I enjoy an excellent relationship with Uwe Rösler, Ose Aibangee and all of the football staff and we are very fortunate to similarly enjoy the support of a club Board which is totally committed to taking the club to the next level."
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He added “Brentford Football Club has made tremendous strides in the past 18 months. “It is a Club set up to make progress up the football pyramid and we have sought to put into place a backroom and management team that are more than capable of working at a significantly higher level." “There is a young, talented First Team squad that we hope will continue to develop and this will be bolstered by players coming through at younger levels of an excellently-run Academy.“There is a new ground on the horizon too, which will only help the Club to grow."
Warburton is close to the owner and whilst Rosler may go at some stage, that is kind of the nature of things in football, I think he and Matthew Benham have long term plans. This is now an exceedingly well run club and they will be playing Championship football, if not next season, then the one after and they have ambition beyond that. This was the first big approach for a member of the backroom staff and the fact that it was unsuccessful, was a massive statement of intent from the whole club. It was also probably made easier as Warburton is already said to be wealthy/secure from non football related business dealings.
Now the team, they lost Harry Forrester to Doncaster Rovers and on Monday, keeper Simon Moore to Cardiff City. They were both "expected", Moore is a good young keeper with huge potential, but not the finished article, he should develop into a quality top flight keeper, but for now, he is probably not better than Bees other senior keeper Richard Lee, however Lee is still recovering from injury , but the club had already signed 19 yo Watford keeper Jack Bonham and yesterday added David Button from Charlton as replacement for Moore.
Uwe Rösler : “We always felt we had to have a Plan B in place in case we had offers for Simon Moore. Over the summer we had goalkeepers in on trial and we made lists and enquiries in case Simon left. That happened this week and with Simon going out the door, there is an opportunity for someone to come in. We decided David was the perfect choice for us. He is at the right age and he is very hungry to make the number one spot his own. As soon as Simon left, David was our first choice. He is the only player we enquired about and the only player we made a bid for. We did not at any stage make any enquiries or bids for any other goalkeepers. David will face strong competition for the goalkeeper spot from Jack Bonham and Richard Lee, when Richard is fit again. We are very strong in the goalkeeper department. We have been strong there over the past two seasons and are even stronger this year. I look forward to working with David and our other goalkeepers. I believe it is very important to have match winners in both penalty areas. You need strikers to win matches and goalkeepers to win matches. Richard Lee and Simon Moore have won matches for us; goalkeeper is a crucial position and David is a very good player. I am very happy with the signing.”
Mark Warburton said: "We had to move very quickly to find a more than suitable replacement. David has an excellent pedigree from his time at the Tottenham Academy and in the Charlton First Team. He is a goalkeeper who still has outstanding potential and we are very excited to secure his services at Brentford FC. David is very keen to prove he is a number one goalkeeper and this is an opportunity for him to do that. We hope this is a great move for both parties.”
I wanted to explain their thinking, as this is typical of how the club is run now, there is always a Plan B and they are proactive rather than reactive in everything.
The surplus money received for Moore and Button was not cheap anyway (neither figure was disclosed), is available if required for further strengthening. It might not be needed just yet.
They also signed...Conor McAleny (Everton), Martin Fillo (Viktoria Plzen), Javi Venta ( Villarreal), George Saville (Chelsea), Alan McCormack ( Swindon) and Will Grigg (Walsall). McAleny
is a 20 yo striker and alreay has the club buzzing, he scored twice against PL Cardiff City last night. Fillo is a Czech international, Venta is a veteran defender who has played a dozen Champions League matches and he has brought into the project to help with the youngsters. Saville is a combative midfielder who, according to Warburton, trained every day last season with the Chelsea first team. McCormack is a team leader and was hugely influential in a strong Swindon team over the last two seasons playing 94 matches, I am hugely pleased with this addition and also Grigg, who is just 22yo and scored 19 goals last season in what I felt was an average Walsall team.
I am equally delighted that the loan deal for 20 yo left back Jake Bidwell (Everton) was made permanent and Harlee Dean a hugely promising 22 yo centre back and 21 yo midfielder Adam Forshaw ( another former Evertonian) have both signed three year contract extensions. These are the future of the club and all will be playing at a much higher level soon, hopefully with Brentford.
Bees also have Stuart Dallas, who is still only 22 yo and has been brought along very slowly by the Bees, Rosler when asked, always says "we know what we have with Stuart" with the implication that he is a future star, albeit a raw one, when we have seen him, he looks good and this should be his breakthrough year.
Squad wise this is incredibly strong and they have, with no exaggeration, 22-23 players who would start each week at probably 18-20 of the other League 1 clubs, Wolves are the unknown factor, they still have £19m worth of EPL parachute money, but like Portsmouth in League 2, every team will be extra motivated playing them and after two terrible campaigns, they have to start well.
Brentford were third last year, hard, almost impossible, to see them finishing any lower this season. I debated long and hard about how or if to bet them and am happy with my decision.
I will take 1.75 units Brentford to be promoted 4.0-4.33
