Last week we touched upon the Spain group at the World Cup and also highlighted some of the problems teams will face in Brazil over the summer. Those notes are reproduced below, along with a brief look at Group D, which shows how not just the group draw , but also the schedule, has handed some teams a massive advantage and left others with a mountain to climb and I am not solely talking metaphorically !
These group previews were taken from Part 1 of my World Cup notes, which were sent to subscribers last Thursday, Part 2 is being sent out this afternoon and there are two more issues to follow over the next seven days.
Group D
Uruguay
Costa Rica
England
Italy
This looks a three way battle between Uruguay, England and Italy.
The South American side have been given a huge advantage IMO by the schedule, which sees them start in Fortaleza against Costa Rica, whilst the other two will be doing their own impression of the "Rumble in the Jungle", in Manaus (see below), flying North from their Rio bases some 3.000 km away. Then England travel back down and "up" to Sao Paulo (800 m above sea level) and the schedule has not done them any favours at all. Roy Hodgson (pictured) was well aware of this before the draw and was praying that England would be spared the rigors of Manaus, now they have to make the best of a bad job, as do Italy.
Uruguay are a "lucky" team for us, double stake bet at odds of 8.0 and a press at 13.5 when they won the Copa America in 2011 was perfect and we were very quick to latch onto the potential of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, which seems obvious now, but was less so back then. Taking part in last year's Confederations Cup in Brazil will have served them well and also highlighted the need to avoid Brazil for as long as possible, which will probably be far more likely if they win their group. They will feel comfortable in their Sete Lagoas base which is at the same level of altitude as Sao Paulo, which will give them an advantage both for the England game and dropping down to sea level for their opener and leave them in better shape in terms of freshness for their decider with the Italians in Natal.
1.75 units Uruguay to win Group D 2.75-3.0 general quote.
World Cup 2014
Ahead of the last World Cup (link) I made a big thing about the venues and the difference, especially in terms of altitude , beween the host cities. There are not the extremes of four years ago, but it will be an issue at some venues and so will the weather, certain games will be played in sweltering dry conditions, others where humidity will be stifling and/or in regions expecting their wettest month of the year and potential monsoon like downpours. These are going to put unusual demands on players, many of whom will already be drained after a long European season and might have repercussions long after this competition is over.
Conditions are going to have big influences on the games, but rather than give a heads up to everyone now, I prefer to focus on this on a match by match basis, but to give you some idea....
The
Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in
Recife is at sea level, tempertaures might not be excessive, but it can be very muggy and June is it's wettest month with 390 mm of rain on average, To put that into perspective, it is about five times that of London in mid winter.
In Cuiaba, at the Arena Pantanal ,rain is unlikely to be a problem, as in there will not be any ! This is their coolest time of year, but it is all relative and temperatures could be pushing 37-40°C.
The Arena da Amazônia in Manaus, is, as the name suggests in the heart of the Amazon rain forest, hundreds of miles from anywhere and here humidity will be a big problem, with levels rarely dropping below 50% and often rising to 100%.
Group B
Spain
Netherlands
Chile
Australia
I like the chances of Chile, they are not going to feature in any other bets, so there is no harm in speaking openly about them and my cards are already on the table somewhat in terms of how I feel about them. Ahead of their friendly match with Germany in Berlin, back in March I wrote ....Germany started slowly in both of those , conceding five goals in total before the break, they also allowed a Zlatan less Sweden to score two first half goals in Stockholm back in October .Chile are better than all of those IMO and have impressed in recent friendlies, drawing 2-2 with Spain, beating England at Wembley 2-0 , losing out narrowly to Brazil (they had drawn with them six months earlier) and then putting four unanswered goals past Costa Rica. Interestingly they have scored 10 first half goals in their last seven friendlies and there must be a good chance they can get an early goal tonight, maybe two, if Germany are again so lacklustre early. Chile are a talented bunch and impressed greatly at Wembley, players like Alexis Sánchez, Eduardo Vargas and Arturo Vidal need little introduction to European football fans and the midfield especially is well established and experienced, with five having 50+ appearances to their name and all,in footballing terms at their peak aged in their late 20's.
Somehow, no one is still quite sure how, Germany won 1-0 in a match dominated by the South American side and on another day Chile would have won by 2-3 goals. They have not been seen out since, but host Egypt tomorrow in Santiago and then Northern Ireland in Valparaiso early next week, before departing for their base camp in Belo Horizonte. They are a talented group as any who saw the matches with those big three European sides will already be aware and group favourites Spain will not hold too much fear for them after the 2-2 draw in Geneva, where the World Champions needed a last minute equaliser to take a share of the spoils. Of course, that was a friendly, but now Chile will be on their own continent and I am hoping that by the time these two meet in Rio on Matchday 2, both might be happy to settle for a point and/or Spain be a little more tired having opened again the Dutch, whilst Chile will have had an "easier" opener against the Aussies.
The two were in the same group in South Africa four years ago, with Spain winning the group courtesy of beating Chile in the final game, but the South Americans had already qualified and were not quite as desperate for the points. This time they meet at the perfect stage for Chile (IMO) and La Roja can win the group. They are a "good age" with 17 of the 22 preliminary squad "perfectly aged between 25-30 and also experienced, with 13 having 25+ caps and all but two outfield players having scored.
Matias Fernandez is injured and misses out, but Alexis Sánchez, Eduardo Vargas and Arturo Vidal give them a real touch of class and they have grown up together and are used to the system that Chile play, initially implemented by Marcelo Bielsa and now carried on by the similarly minded Jorge Sampaoli, that means intense pressing, a fluidity of formtion and movement and wingbacks giving width at all times. Think Bilbao of two years ago and everything done at great pace. This is all about the collective, despite have some impressive talent at their disposal and has led to some big name players being sacrificed for the greater good, think the Borg as opposed to the Federation ......resistance is futile ! Only with a lot more flair!
Sampaoli made his name at Universidad de Chile winning the Copa Sudamericana going on a 36 match unbeaten run and seemingly changing formation at will, but always with a commitment to attack, with a philosophy of always thinking more about "your opponents goal, than your own. " He also "insists" on players enjoying themselves and looks for those who want to play for pride and love of their country and not other reasons. They are very hard to read and what looks like , 4-4-2 or even Sampaoli's preferred 3-4-3 is often something else entirely , with several variations within the formation.
I would not be surprised to see them go deep, but they paid the price for finishing group runner up four years ago and meeting Brazil in the last 16 and that could happen again, so I feel they will be looking to win the section this time round and prefer taking a couple of bets based around that.
1.75 units Chile to qualify from Group B 1.90 + there is 2.0 available.
1 unit Chile to win Group B 5.0 general quote.
Good Luck
