Australian Open betting preview: WTA :Madison Keys- Yaroslava Shvedova

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Australian Open: WTA : Madison Keys- Yaroslava Shvedova

 
We discussed Madison Keys a lot last summer at Wimbledon and the US Open and I see her very much as a grand slam winner in waiting, ahead of her match up with Agnieszka Radwanska in New York I wrote the following ........
 
Agnieszka Radwanska leads the h2h 4-0, but Madison Keys is still only 20 yo and their only recent meeting came this summer at Wimbledon in the quarter finals, ahead of which I wrote .....
 
Madison Keys has the game to win Wimbledon, she has not overly impressed so far and had some health issues coming into the event, but every match will help her and she has a very solid "Team Lyndsey Davenport" behind her giving good solid advice and I feel she is too big today.
 
I have a LOT of time for Agnieszka Radwanska , she is very competent on grass and we won good money on her in 2012-13 when she made a run to the final taking Serena very close and then the semis the following year. However, despite recent signs that she is on the way back, her form has dipped over the last two years and she is not quite the defensive brick wall she was, but still a very tough, steely and clever opponent. The pair met here in 2013, Agie was close to her peak, Keys just 18 yo and it went to a decider, 15 aces for the youngster that day, but she lost the match on second serve, she is twice the player now and her opponent a little less fearsome and this looks a good opportunity for an "upset".
 
I have no problem with Radwanska as favourite , but circa 55% at best IMO, so getting around 33%-36% on Keys is too good to resist.
 

We turned a small profit there with Radwanska winning in three sets, Keys served bigger and better as you would always expect, she won more points and hit four times as many winners, again, as you might expect, the loss was all down to the number of unforced errors, Agie rarely makes many, but Keys timing was off a little and if she had played a few more games in build up, when she had some kind of virus, I feel she would have won that day and might even have pushed Serena in the final. Neither she nor Agie has set the world alight since Wimbledon, but both will be desperate to do well here and this has the potential to be the match of the day. Since Lindsay Davenport started coaching Keys, the pair have been together at three fast surface slams, making the semis in Melbourne, quarters at Wimbledon when probably not 100% fit and now here in New York, which is the home slam for the pair, so motivation and expectation could not be higher. Keys hits the hardest groundstrokes in tennis, harder on average than Serena and too hard at times, hence the large number of unforced errors, she and Davenport have been working hard to take just a little pace off and go for more accuracy and sooner or later it will all come together in a slam and I expect her to win one before the end of next year if she stays healthy. I was impressed with her win over Tereza Smitkova, not the victory, that was expected, but that she played well within herself and stayed in control of all aspects of her game and it looks like she is maturing with every slam and I do not doubt that she and her coach have been targeting peaking here in New York since Wimbledon.
 

Keys won that 6-3, 6-2, she then lost to Serena Williams in a match that was much closer than the scoreline suggests and that week I kind of made up my mind that MK would win one of the fast court slams in 2016 and I wanted to bet big, once I saw some encouragement going into, or early in one. This is the first, trouble is that she split (amicably) with Davenport last month, with former ATP pro Jesse Levine taking over the role. LD is still prepared to offer any help, but with four children and media work, she couldn't commit to a full time job with Keys. So, I would just like to get a good look at her first, but I understand that Levine has already made some adjustments that Team Keys are really pleased with and I do expect her schedule to be very Slam orientated . Her second serve was really on the money in her first round win over Zarina Dyas and if that continues, she will win a lot of quick points here in Melbourne.
 
Yaroslava Shvedova is another player that I have a lot of time for and she has a win over Keys in their only meeting, when the young US player withdrew very late in the second set with a leg injury in a Wimbledon third round match and that will certainly not have been forgotten and Keys will want to get a little revenge, or at least level up the scores. Shvedova has never made it beyond Round 2 here in seven attempts and on only four occasions in 25 fast court slam appearances and this is the sort of player that Keys should be brushing aside. She has made the final 4, 8 and 16 at her last three "fast" slams and this should be her breakthrough year if ,the adjustment to her new coach goes well. We will know more after today.............

 

1.5 units Madison Keys to win 2-0 sets 1.97 Pinnacle Sports/Sportmarket Pro..............I think 1.85 + is "good" although personally, I almost never bet below 1.90.

 

Good Luck.

 

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