Bologna 7, 5-8, 4.3-6.3, 13-18, 8-9, 26-35

 

Genoa 3, 5-10 , 3.8-6.1, 13-24, 7-9, 18-35

 

 

Atalanta 7, 4-3, 5.8-4.3, 13-12, 8-5, 37-23

 

Sassuolo 4, 4-5, 5.6-7.3, 21-18, 8-13, 33-41

 

 

Fiorentina 9, 7-6, 4.9-6.4, 19-17, 5-12 , 29-30

 

Inter 10, 15-4, 8.1-4.0, 29-10, 14-8, 40-26

 

Team, points, goal difference, xGD, on target attempts, BC's, ITB.

 

Bologna are coming off a very heavy loss at Inter , which will have been a big blow to confidence levels after an unbeaten start to their campaign through three games. Genoa's numbers are inferior, but not by much and they have faced tougher opposition so far, having also hosted Napoli in addition to their own trip to Inter and they have done well in this fixture in each of the last two season , winning both meetings in Bologna by a combined 5-0, including a 2-0 victory here a little over four months ago. That was a wide open encounter, with an even split of 13 attempts on target, 19 ITB, 6 BC's and 11 saves, with Mattia Perrin in the Genoa goal earning MOTM plaudits, which is why the points went their way.

 

Sassuolo have scored on each of their last nine trips to Bergamo, losing the last two 4-1 and 5-1 , both of which were big games for us, particularly the former ahead of which I wrote about the earlier fixture............ This was the fixture last season which started all the Sassuolo hoop la and made them newsletter darlings for so long.  They caught my eye by creating 7 BC's on the road to Atalanta, whose own numbers were just sensational at the time and what happened after is well documented. All journeys have to begin with a single step and that heralded the start of a wonderful run and as you can see above, they have played almost as well as Juventus subsequently and did so playing thrilling offensive football. But all journeys have to end sometime too and I wrote recently about teams possibly finding Sassuolo out now and when I updated the Serie A stats, their ITB stats shocked me. They have tumbled to bottom 6 level after posting 27-70 for the last 5 starts, that is about as bad as it gets. 27 created is the third lowest, below only Crotone and Genoa and 70 conceded is 14 more than anyone else and 39 more than any of the other top 7 teams, 52 more than Atalanta ! It means the home side are a net +68 over Sassuolo in the last five games alone and that is a scary number.

 

 

In addition to those two big wins, Atalanta have won the last five h2h meetings as host (conceding in each) and also scored 17 goals in the last five reverse fixtures, averaging 3.3 per game across the last 10 "shootouts" with Sassuolo , which is what all have become, albeit dominated by the Bergamo club who have won nine. Atalanta will be disappointed to have just 7 points on board and their early 21/22 stats have not been what we come to expect from them, however, there has been a marked upturn in the last two and they should win this, having the visitors "number". However, we know all too well that Sassuolo play better on the road and I touched upon that ahead of their home loss to Torino on Friday...........

 

 

They lost 1-0 but should have conceded 2-3 goals and did not create much , however, in terms of what they have created this season, 14 of 21 on target attempts have come in their two away starts, along with 6 of 8 BC's and 18/33 ITB attempts, so we can expect a reaction and better offensive showing this evening.

 

Fiorentina opened with a 3-1 loss at Roma where they ran out of steam late, after playing most of the game with 10 men, but have won their three subsequent starts and have been brave offensively , especially as they have only played one home game so far, even if that all that attacking intent is not reflected in the numbers above . However, they were 6-1 for on target attempts in that sole home game which came against Torino who we "like", so that makes better reading.They will have to be at the top of their game today, with defending champions Inter in town, having scored six at the weekend and knowing they will move top with all three points. Inter have conceded in both away starts (three goals total) , meet a stronger team today and xGF suggest they have made the most of premium chances created. The hosts lost this fixture 2-0 last season, but had lost just 1/9 h2h meetings prior to that with both teams scoring in 8 and also scored in 8/10 trips to the San Siro for reverse meetings, including three in a seven goal thriller last season

 

If we ignore last season's COVID spectator-less campaign, 19/20 saw Serie  A games average 3.04 goals and we are running at 3.20 currently through four rounds. This upturn in entertainment is now firmly established in Italy and in 19/20 Bologna were ranked #1 with regard to games in which both teams scored (76%) , Atalanta and Sassuolo were joint #2 (68%) and Fiorentina and Genoa both top 10 , with 63%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good luck !