The biggie ! The one we have all been waiting for !

 

Just 4 points between the top 2 and it should be win or bust for Dortmund,  XP puts Bayern's advantage at +10 points and looking at ITB stats they are + 122 for the season and +39 for the last 9 games.

 

These are also the top 2 first half teams, with Dortmund ranked #1 as host (9-3-1) and Bayern #1 on the road (8-4-1) and they are also a sensational +11 goals ( 12-1) for the opening 15 minutes of away games.

 

Dortmund will be wary of those early numbers and as they have won 10/13 second halves as host and Bayern just 6/13 as visitor , it is easy to see a scenario where the home side will really press on after the break and look to improve upon a fantastic second 45 minute home goal difference of +25 ( 30-5).

 

Even h2h split with the last 10 meetings at  Signal-Iduna-Park playing out 4-2-4.

 

Absolutely no doubts that Bayern are the better team , but they do not need to take three points today to win the league and odds feel too big for Dortmund in a one off game and as strange as it sounds, lack of a crowd might even help them as it will feel less of a pressure pot situation and it might be easier for them to play their natural game. When it all clicks for Borussia they are capable of beating anyone and the injury to Serge Gnabry who only played 26 minutes on Saturday and left training very early on Sunday and who is less than 100% , allied to the absence of Thiago hardly helps Bayern. The central midfielder is key to the way Bayern play and he rarely misses a big game, just three in the last two years, away to Leipzig (1-2) in 17-18 and away to both Dortmund (2-3) and Leverkusen (1-3) last season and they lost them all, conceding two plus goals in each.

 

I see no alternative and at the odds it has to be Dortmund, on this occasion it also has to be level ball as Bayern would surely take a point now.

 

 

 

 

Stay safe and good luck !