All updated Bundesliga stats can be found in the previous post on the website and I suggest you take a look at those before betting any of this weekend's games. I am in the process of previewing all nine for clubgowi subscribers and you can read the first of those below, tonight's Berlin derby ...................

 

Both teams are starting to look safe now on 30+ points, with 29 enough for 15th place last season and the current bottom three a little way adrift and looking inferior to the rest of the Bundesliga.One more win for each should certainly confirm survival and it would be great for either to get that in only the second ever top flight Berlin derby between these two clubs, the first was back in November which Union won 1-0 and the minnows from the East celebrated that wildly and I suspect revenge has long been on Hertha's mind. That game was played on November 9th, 30 years to the day since the Berlin wall collapsed and a date requested by Hertha, making the defeat all the more painful. Very little between these two with regard to real, expected or ITB numbers, only edge going to Hertha with the last eight game inside the box stats, where they are a net +25, creating 10 more and conceding 15 fewer, big numbers between two seemingly evenly matched teams. The hosting team will also have been delighted how the restart went, with a 3-0 win away to Hoffenheim where they were criticised for inappropriate celebrations, but at least it proved they "wanted it" and it looked like they just got lost in the moment. Union suffered a 2-0 loss at home to leaders Bayern Munich a day later ,on the Sunday, which was not unexpected, but UB named a line up to try and frustrate Bayern, leaving top scorer Sebastian Andersson out and on the bench until late in that game, which was more of a surprise.

 

Ahead of that game my notes included .............. Union will be up for this, but lack of a crowd hardly helps them and they have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 10 starts and in each of their last 8 games versus top half of the table opponents. They are also without suspended Marvin Friedrich who is amongst the first names on the team sheet, he was ever present last season in their promotion campaign and he plays on the right of their back 3.

They will get Friedrich back today and I assume that Andersson will also return to the starting line up. Union have had 26 hours less between games which might be an issue after such a long break and more so with this game played on Friday evening.

Hertha did us a favour with that big win last Saturday ahead of which I noted .................

Hoffenheim are comfortable in 9th, still in European contention and 7 points clear of Hertha, but XP suggests that should just be one point and ITB numbers are similarly close with a slight edge to the Berlin club. The defensive stats for the home club also give considerable cause for concern, with XGA saying they should have conceded five more goals and they are already giving up the most amongst top half of the table teams, ITB totals for the last 8 games tell us they are giving up over 11 attempts inside their own box, the worst in the Bundesliga. Someone might argue they have had a long time to work on that, but in reality clubs haven't and there have been relatively few team training sessions in build up to this round. Hoffenheim are also the worst first half team in the league, with just 3 wins and 18 points before the break.

Having said all that, they have dominated recent h2h meetings, with a 4-1-0 record as host and unbeaten in eight at either venue, scoring 10 goals in their last four trips to Berlin and the visitor will be without CM Vladimir Darida who is banned, he has 3 goals and 4 assists this season and Herta are 1-1-3 in his absence. However, the good news ends there for the hosts who are without hugely prolific Andrej Kramaric who has 37 goals and 15 assists in 78 Bundesliga outings, also missing are several other offensive players including LW Sargis Adamyan, who has 5 goals and 2 assists this season and Hoffenheim have lost 6/10 when he has been absent, including 4 from 5 at home and by a combined 6-19 , shipping 3.8 goals per game !

Hoffenheim defensive stats give huge cause for concern as do their first half numbers, they have had the indian sign over Hertha for many years, but that is the only straw for them to clutch at and, with their best offensive players missing they seem sure to struggle.

Hertha will get Darida back today and were hugely buoyed by the result, but we do have to bear in mind how poor a defensive unit Hoffenheim are. Having said that, Union have now conceded two or more goals in 9 of their last 11 games and whilst Friedrich will return, another centre back is now banned with Keven Schlotterbeck missing out and the team have lost 6/10 in his absence. New Hertha head coach Bruno Labbadia won his first game in charge last week and will want to follow up in the derby on his home debut, even if no supporters will be able to say " I was there" ! That goes double with a very tough trip to Leipzig scheduled for Tuesday. Labbadia considers Union a "lucky" opponent, as he scored three times against them as a striker for Karslruher. However ,Brazilian Matheus Cunha is likely to have a greater contribution and influence on the pitch, the 20 yo has been prolific for the Brazil U23 team, but struggled for much game time at Leipzig, but since his big money move to the capital on deadline day of the last transfer window, he has thrived as the "main man" with 3 goals and an assist, plus two MOTM awards in four and a half games for Hertha. The club made several major signings in the last window to preserve their status for this season and start the rebuild for next, spending over 80m in January on five young players, two of whom will join up with the squad in the summer. This is all being funded by Lars Windhorst (pictured) who increased his ownership share to 49.9% (maximum allowed in German football) through his investment vehicle Tennor Holding in November , we can say that he has a "colourful history"and leave it at that !

In stark contrast Union have never paid more than 2m for a player, a handful of playing staff at the club were deemed unwanted by Hertha as youngsters and only basement club Paderborn pay lower salaries, all of which highlights the big difference in financial clout between the two major Berlin clubs.

Hertha look in better shape right now and as long as they can restrict the supply from veteran Union right back/midfielder Christopher Trimmel who has 10 assists this season , including 9 in the Bundesliga and 7 from set pieces ( one more than Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold) and a European wide big league high, they should edge this and square up the series. Union have scored 31.25 % of all goals from set pieces, the 2nd highest in the Bundesliga and Sebastian Andersson (see above) has scored 11 goals (over 34% of their total) with 5 supplied by Trimmel. Neither had played in the Bundesliga prior to this season , so opponents had limited data on the duo, but I would have expected a lot of analytics departments to have worked hard over lockdown and the pair to be less influential over the final weeks of the campaign.

Hertha have won two of the four second matches played against teams they had lost to earlier in the season, Union have lost both re-matches against clubs they had beaten and by a combined 1-8 .  Home win.

 

1.75 units Hertha Berlin -0.5 ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Only one Hertha home goal in the opening 30 minutes of games all season, so if you wanted to hold off for bigger odds in running, especially as Union are likely to set up defensively through the opening exchanges, I would not rush to stop you !

 

Good luck and stay safe !