Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 25+ games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.

I will finish this part of the notes with my normal observation which is that I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because they are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

There are some differences between this round and the first game of the season/return after the winter break, mainly that we have not had a transfer window and all players know, or should know their job and still be in sync with team mates and most clubs have a settled formation and preferred starting lineup . They will be "rusty" of course and no amount of training can ever get you up to the desired level of match fitness, that usually takes 4-6 games, but some teams cannot afford to wait that long !

Saturday 16/05

It has been such a long break since the last round of games that I think a quick look at how teams performed on opening day and after the Christmas break is a good place to start and see who tends to be best prepared after an extended period of inactivity.

Dortmund, Leipzig, Freiburg, Frankfurt and Leverkusen won both and might be suited coming off a break , Mainz, Union, Hoffenheim, Paderborn and Augsburg lost both, only two of the 18 games were drawn.

Last season Dortmund and Frankfurt also won both games in the same rounds and are the only teams to go 4/4, Hoffenheim lost both and are the only team with an unwanted 0/4 record. Only one draw from the those 18 games, so 3 from 36 is just 8.33%, we do not get a lot of stalemates in the Bundesliga (5% below Spain, France and Italy last season), they usually produce the fewest amongst the Big 5 European leagues, but these are incredibly low numbers across four rounds and even if we extend that to five seasons and ten rounds, it only rises to 14.44% and my feeling today that we should be looking to take the draw out of the equation to get full value for any bets/selections, by which I mean looking at -0.5 lines rather than +/-0.25 or level ball.

The unknown factor with regard to all leagues is of course COVID-19, we will not know which players have been hit hardest by the virus, that doesn't have to mean having contacted the coronavirus, but they could have been in isolation, seen family members suffer, or have lost someone close and these issues will be mental rather than physical. Some players might even be fearful of playing and/or travel, but we have no way of truly knowing and therefore, cannot make it a major consideration. My own thinking is that any teams playing in their own stadium might have an increased advantage to begin with, if only because none of us have been travelling much (if at all) and it is one more thing to think about and an additional obstacle to overcome. Also, given the exceptional circumstances and empty stadiums these fixtures will have a more friendly/pre season vibe, at least for those leagues where we are in early season, or there is nothing much at stake, which might result in more goals and I suspect all concerned, the leagues, television companies, even governments would be happy with that and the increased entertainment that a few open games might bring.

The football world will be watching Bundesliga this weekend and it is an opportunity to pick up not just viewers, but new fans and you are not going to do that with negative football, which we rarely see in Germany in any case.

Augsburg v Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg are 7th and posing sixth best numbers, last season they finished 6th and were 8th for XP, so hard to argue against their standing in the Bundesliga hierarchy, it feels like they are exactly where they should be and a good yardstick by which to judge other teams. The Wolves have  +81 edge over Augsburg for the season, +19 for the last eight games, through which neither have been on fire offensively (relative to league position).

Augsburg tend to start disciplined defensively, conceding just 16 first half goals, but shipping 36 (69.2%) after the break.

Wolfsburg are without suspended striker Wouter Weghorst who has missed just one game in two seasons and who has been super prolific, not just in terms of the goals he has scored, 28 across the 58 starts, but his incredible strike rate, with Weghorst scoring those goals from "just" 23.8 xG , he is the big offensive threat in a decent team , but one who we have already mentioned have not been creating that much in recent starts. The visitors are also shorthanded in DM and missing right back William , they are 3-3-3 in all league games without him and have conceded at least two goals in each of the five away games he has sat out over the last two seasons, he was also absent from the 2-1 defeat here in Augsburg in 17-18.

Conclusion: Augsburg have not been very good after the last two breaks, but their need is greater than Wolfburg's, they are averaging 2.0 goals per home start, good for 7th , tend to start strong defensively through the opening 45 minutes and the visitors are surely going to struggle with the absences, especially Weghorst and his big conversion stats.

Options: 1.5 units Augsburg -0.5 ball 3.52 asian line/Sportmarket, Augsburg in first half betting (-0.25 ball 3.24) "draw" is not the same issue over 45 minutes (see above).

The other eight previews are just for clubgowi subscribers.

Stay safe and good luck.