Championship: Birmingham City- Leeds United
I previewed Birmingham's game with Brighton last midweek, my notes went an awful lot like this .............
Hosts are without a win in four and have taken maximum points from only 2 of ten starts, they have failed to score in half of those and managed just a single goal in the other five outings and a lack of ambition and goals, has made them a very difficult team to watch this season. That is no criticism of head coach Gary Rowett who has done a fine, maybe even miraculous job in very difficult circumstances at St Andrews to not only keep his team in the division, but to flirt with the playoff places. He has had no option but to play to his team's strengths such as they are , but pleasing on the eye they are not ! That dalliance with the top six appears over now sitting ninth, eight points of the pace, they do have a game in hand, so three today would keep the dream alive a little longer and normally you would expect them to gamble and go all out for the points, but I would not bet on that with the Blues.
Brighton are now known for their offensive prowess either , but are unbeaten in seven and have scored 13 goals in that sequence which is 0.57 goals per game more than they have managed for the rest of the season and they took points from the two games in which they failed to score and that is very much their gameplan, keep things tight and look to steal a goal on the break, especially away from home. Two teams with a very similar style and approach, only that Brighton do it a little better !They are a point shy of Middlesbrough (who have a GIH) in second and four adrift of leaders Burnley and are still very much in the automatic promotion picture, they are ten clear of Cardiff City in 7th with 7 rounds to play and look booked for a post season spot at worse and there is really no point in them not going all out for the win and to put some pressure on the top two . Brighton have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule of the top clubs before going to Boro on the final day of the season and their aim, surely, has to be to stay in touch until then.I have all the time in the world for visiting boss Chris Hughton who is probably too nice a bloke for football management and no one would deserve another promotion more.
City main striker and second top scorer Clayton Donaldson has scored only three goals in the last seven months and top scorer midfielder Jon Toral (eight goals and four assists) is a major doubt,, the pair, like Hughton are former Brentford players and I know them all well, Donaldson is in the driest spell of his career and Toral has been carrying the line, which is not his game at all. Kyle Lafferty was brought in on loan to help the goal threat, but he has yet to kick a ball and is again a doubt and things look difficult for the home team.
Brighton won 2-1 and did the form line no harm by beating Nottingham Forest by the same scoreline last night, where , by the way, Jiri Skalak had another assist ( see yesterday's notes). City played quite well in that game and led and I have every reason to believe that they might end the season on a high note now that it appears their "strikers" are running into a little form. Kyle Lafferty did start and scored their goal and Jon Toral went very close to making it 2-0, on Saturday the Blues went to Reading, who were unbeaten in eight home Championship starts (since losing to the mighty Bees in what was my Christmas present !), and won 2-0, with the opener scored by Clayton Donaldson ( see notes on all three above). Almost all strikers are "streaky" and almost all will go on a scoring run after ending a barren spell and I would be a little shocked if Donaldson did not follow up this evening. He needs to play in the remaining six games to make it 40 league appearances for the sixth consecutive season, which is a fantastic record for a players who has been "targeted" as the danger man for most of those 250 games and worked his socks off in each. He is also two short of double figures in terms of goals for this campaign and that is another run he would surely like to extend, having had 11 or more in each of the previous seven campaigns. He and Lafferty played up front at the Madejski and Toral sat out all 90 minutes, that will have left him either fresh for today, or "hungry", probably both and suddenly, City have options and an attacking threat.
2.90-3.10 for Clayton Donaldson in the anytime goalscorer market looks on the big side and as a born and raised Yorkshireman and having played for Bradford City his hometown club, Hull and York City and a succession of lower level teams from the county, he is unlikely to have too much affection for Leeds United (they are the Bantams biggest rival) and if any further personal motivation was needed, there it is !
City are not quite yet out of the promotion race, the two teams above them lost at the weekend and if they can win this game in hand, they can at least extend interest in this campaign a little longer. United are safe in lower mid table, have started building for next season, have not won in four and are coming off a tough game at Turf Moor on Saturday, where for long periods they bossed Burnley, but it was all about the result for the Clarets and they were seemingly happy to play cautiously and hand the advantage to United after taking the lead inside 60 seconds. These are hard back to back road games and the third that United have had to play inside 10 days, they are again without suspended Souleymane Doukar, they are without a win in six ( four defeats) and have scored just twice in his absence. Home win.
1.5 units Birmingham City -0.5 ball 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.
Blues have a +5 first half home goal difference -3 after the break (they will almost always sit back as far as possible after taking the lead and play solely on the break) and on the road, United are slow starters with a -9 goal difference (1-10 !) in the opening 30 minutes (only already relegated Bolton have a worse record and they are Bad with a capital B !).
Good Luck.
