Championship betting preview: Fulham- Blackpool

football betting tips -
 
Championship: Fulham- Blackpool
 
Fulham are the best team in the Championship and it is probably not even close, it is kind of sad having to type those words, but not as depressing as the thought of QPR being promoted, if that happens, there is always the roof to jump off ! The hosts hold a 5 points lead at the top of the table, are 8 clear of the team in third and good for automatic promotion, they have scored 73 (!) goals which is an incredible 28 more than anyone else and (this is a good one) their goal difference of +48 is at least 3 goals more than any other team has actually scored ! XP has them some 19 points ahead of the team in third and it will be a travesty of justice were they not to be promoted, but difficult to see how that is not going to happen.
 
I made no secret of how keen I was on Blackpool in League 1 through the latter half of last season and they landed some very nice bets for us. They have gone from a total mess of a club with a greedy , self interested owner, to one well run both on and off the pitch with a well respected head coach who is going on to great things in the game, all of that was explained in my notes on the opening day of this season which are reproduced at the foot of this email. They have adapted well to life in the Championship and are a very respectable 14th and are set to do more than simply survive, which would have been target number one coming into this campaign. The Seasiders are actually only four points adrift of 9th place with a game in hand on many and have no pressure on them at all. They are one of only four teams to have beaten the Cottagers (don't laugh !) this season, which might give the Seasiders confidence, but will also doubtless motivate the home side and makes for an interesting contest.
 
Fulham have conceded in 9 of their last 14 starts at Craven Cottage, including in five wins and they have actually conceded twice in 13 of 33 Championship games here ( rest of those fixtures were "also" in a promotion season..... 19-20) including their last two starts (both against teams below Pool in the table), that is 39.39 %, which gives odds of 2.54 and quotes for Blackpool to do likewise of 5.0/5.50 just seem far too big, doubly so given that they have already done so at three of the four top 8 teams they have played on the road. Fulham are too good, they don't overly need to worry about conceding right now as they "know" they are going to score 3-4-5 or more themselves (Fulham have scored 4+ goals in 7/16 starts and 6+ in four of those !). They have also conceded in the first half in each of their last three games and Pool are 3.50 ish to make it 4/4 which also feels big.
 
2.25 units both teams to score 2.01 asian line.
 
1 unit Blackpool to score "over" 1.5 goals 5.0-5.50 general quote
 
Blackpool to score in the first half @ 3.48 asian line is a good alternative.
 
 
Good luck !
 
 
Bristol City- Blackpool (written August 7th)
 
I am really keen on this version of Blackpool now that the Oyston's are out , they have an owner worthy of them and a head coach who is going to be touted for every bigger job which comes up in the future, all of this we discussed on March and again, ahead of the League 1 play offs which, of course, they won  ................
 
OK, I will bite the bullet and say it, I am pretty good in the playoffs and have a remarkable postseason record, especially in League 1. Until Brentford went up to the Championship, it was the league I knew best and I still have a very good handle on it. Last two seasons that I have had an opinion (Rotherham 2018 and Charlton 2019 ) were both winners and to highlight that I remain in touch with League 1. I have discussed two third tier teams in depth this season and those notes are very relevant for the postseason, first up are Oxford United (edit: see May 10th email) and I wrote the following about them back in November .........
 
Then, on March 23rd I wrote in glowing terms about Blackpool ..............
 
Blackpool are unbeaten in 9 and have lost just 3/19, they are 10th, but have 2-4 games in hand on all bar one team above them and they would move in the playoff positions (6th) with all three points this evening. They were in the Premier League a decade ago and the Championship as recently as 2014-15, but had fallen on very hard times under the toxic ownership of Owen Oyston, who effectively asset stripped the famous old club. I spoke of this several times before a high court judge ruled that Oyston had illegally taken almost £27m out of the club (probably more) and the current owner was finally allowed to buy Blackpool from the receivers. Simon Sadler took charge in June 2019, he runs a Hong Kong based hedge fund, but is a local lad and has supported the Seasiders all his life.
 
Ahead of this season he spoke about his first year at the helm:
 

At just past 3pm on Thursday June 13th 2019 I became the owner and custodian of a famous institution, founded in 1887, which is known to us all as Blackpool Football Club.

As I reflect on my first year of ownership, my still fresh feelings of gratitude, responsibility and wonder are of course overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic and the havoc that has been wreaked throughout our lives and communities. I would like to send my sincerest condolences to those of you that have lost loved ones during this period. I would also like to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of you who work for the NHS and the emergency and essential services which have kept Blackpool and the surrounding areas going through this difficult time.

My first anniversary has coincided with a busy and important week in the life of the Club with the announcement of the curtailment of the 2019/20 season and the release of the player retained list. I would like to thank all of the players and coaching staff for their efforts during the season and wish all those leaving us good luck for the future.

 

Blackpool was one of the eighteen League One clubs which voted to end the season. Our Club’s decision was the result of many hours of debate between The Board, Head Coach Neil Critchley and me. Right up until an hour before our vote was due, we were agonising over our three options of curtailing, playing on or abstaining. In the end, our decision to vote to curtail was based upon many reasons, not least of which because, given our mid-table position, we had little to aim for. Of course, we also considered our primary responsibility to safeguard the health of our staff, as well as the cost of staging matches behind closed doors. Very importantly we spoke at length with Neil as to what he wanted. Neil assured us that in the time he’d spent with the squad, he had made the necessary assessments such that he felt that, with the right additions and a solid pre-season, we would be prepared for the start of the next season, whenever that may be.

 

When I bought the Club in mid-June of last year I did not anticipate to be on my third manager by February of this year. Terry McPhillips departed abruptly in early July. His departure left us without a manager, an assistant manager or a goalkeeping coach just weeks before the start of the season. At that point it made sense to turn swiftly to Simon Grayson given his familiarity with the Club, as well as his outstanding record of four League One to Championship promotions. Following an encouraging start and some thrilling matches against the likes of Peterborough and Fleetwood, our season fell away rapidly over the Christmas and New Year period. With the addition of a strong recruitment team, led by Tommy Johnson, we had in place a plan to strengthen the squad in the January window. It was frustrating for me to watch our performances fall apart as that recruitment plan was being executed and strong additions were being made to the playing squad. In the end the decision to part ways with Simon was less about the poor results on the pitch but more about the Board’s growing concerns that we were not building in the right way. We seemed frequently to change tactics but we did not appear to have a defined playing philosophy.

 

The search for Simon’s successor was deliberately thorough and detailed. With the prospects of reaching the play-offs greatly diminished, we felt comfortable that David Dunn and Tommy Johnson would ensure that we stayed safe and we were in fact heartened by the immediate improvement in our performances which we saw under their leadership. I will always be grateful to them for stepping up in the manner in which they did.

 

We needed, however, to find a Head Coach to help us define and implement the Blackpool footballing philosophy. I thought back to when I had flown over from Hong Kong in late September to watch the Friday night Lincoln game. The next day I was jet-lagged and at about 4.30am, in the driving rain, I decided to retrace the footsteps of my childhood. As I walked along the Promenade I could see how many people were already working in the hotels – cleaning up from the day before and preparing for breakfast. It reminded me how hard people in Blackpool work, that people go there to enjoy themselves and that it was my duty to ensure that that was reflected on the pitch with hard-working and organised players who deliver an entertaining brand of football, with an emphasis on youth and development. After assiduously researching the managerial and coaching landscape, I have little doubt that in Neil Critchley we have found the man to deliver that vision.

One of the first things that I did after buying the Club was to appoint to the Board Brett Gerrity, a fellow Seasider and long-standing and trusted friend to be my eyes and ears on the ground. He would turn up to the stadium most days and report back to me and as he did so the enormity of what I’d taken on began to dawn on me. The interim management had done a solid job at preparing the Club for sale but over those first few weeks and months it became increasingly apparent that I needed people with the experience of running community-focused football clubs on budgets appropriate to their circumstances. I was pleased to announce first Linton Brown to oversee our commercial efforts and then Ben Mansford as Chief Executive. I honestly believe that in the four of us the Club now has as hard-working and passionate a Board and management team as any in the EFL.

 

We have achieved much off the field in the past year. There has been significant investment in the stadium. This investment will necessarily be ongoing after years of neglect. We have improved the club shop, our online presence and the ticketing process. There are further improvements to come. We’ve rebuilt relations with the Community Trust, the local council, local businesses and the wider community. We are in the process of installing a new, purpose-built modular building at Squires Gate. The playing surfaces both there and at Bloomfield Road are vastly improved. We have increased staffing across media, finance and marketing and I am grateful for the hard work and dedication of all of our non-playing staff, most of whom are currently furloughed. I very much look forward to the day when they can safely return to work.

 

Looking ahead, the Club clearly needs a modern training facility where the entire football operations can work together in one location. Negotiations are ongoing to secure our preferred site whilst designs of a building and pitch lay-out are currently being refined. We are also excited by the prospect of wider regeneration in the Revoe area and have had early stage discussions as to what that could mean for our East Stand development.

 

Now to you, the fans. I am truly grateful for the manner in which you have supported both the Club and me personally during the last year. Whilst the match versus Southend on March 9th 2019 was The Homecoming, the first match of the season on August 3rd versus Bristol Rovers felt like my homecoming. I have never had the temerity to imagine that my name would be sung at Bloomfield Road but to have that happen and to be referred to as “one of our own” is truly beyond my wildest dreams. After over twenty years working abroad, I truly feel that I have been welcomed back to my home town. But it’s not about me, it’s about us and our love and support for our town and our club. That day in August was the beginning of a new era for us all and I relish the prospect of leading us forward as club custodian. Please rest assured that whilst mistakes will undoubtedly be made along the way, we will continue to make careful and deliberate decisions which, to the greatest extent possible, will be in the interests of all stakeholders alike.

 

The outlook for football outside of The Premier League is very concerning. We want to plan for the future and the 2020/21 season but in all honesty we are unsure as to exactly what we are planning for. We have no visibility as to when next season will start and, of course, we have no idea when or how you, our fans, will be able to return. I want to back Neil and to invest in the playing squad but it is very challenging to do so against this uncertain backdrop. Additionally, whilst you can rest assured that I have the immediate wherewithal to ensure that the club will survive this crisis as I currently see it, the pandemic has truly exposed the need for a restructuring in football’s finances. I fear that over the coming months many clubs at our level may just not be able to continue and quite what that means for us, the season ahead and for football in the EFL is impossible to predict.

 

In my opinion, for football to emerge largely unscathed from this difficult period, things will surely have to change. However I strongly believe that we, at Blackpool Football Club, are on the right path. In order to be successful, all clubs will need to be less reliant on the blunt tool that is money spent on players wages. It is imperative that more emphasis is placed upon developing your own talent. I believe that the three pillars of our future success will be our Academy, our recruitment and our coaching.

 

I’ll wrap up by thanking my family and particularly my wife Gillian for their unwavering support. I took ownership of the Club at a point in time when I would otherwise have looked to spend more time with Gillian and my two young kids. We have had to make significant adjustments to our family life in order to make room for the Club and I am grateful for their ongoing patience, support and understanding.

 

I hope that all of you stay safe and well and I look forward to the day when we can all meet again at Bloomfield Road.

 

This is a club who could have a big couple of seasons and they are worth keeping an eye on. Critchley is well respected and left his position in charge of Liverpool's U23 team to take up the role, he was hand-picked by the FA to take UEFA’s first elite badge course and is one of just 16 holders of the highest coaching qualification in football.
 
He was given time to look at the squad and he has overseen an enormous number of transfers in and out of the club over the last 9 months. The 15 who played last weekend included seven signed from a higher level or the U23 teams of (Everton/Arsenal/Man Utd) which is no surprise given the background of the head coach and why perhaps it has taken a while for the team to gel and Blackpool to build up a head of steam.
 
Perhaps Critchley's best signing has been Colin Calderwood as his assistant, he led both Nottingham Forest and Northampton to promotion as head coach, setting defensive records at the Cobblers and since his arrival at Blackpool, the club have conceded just 14 goals in 24 starts.This is all the more remarkable as Blackpool have been dealing with real injury issues at the back and they will be forced into their 9th different CB partnership this evening, every time previously Critchley and Calderwood have come up with a game plan to handle the situation and will need to do so again. I will suggest something small tonight, but this is more about highlighting Blackpool as a team for the coming weeks and months.
 
XP puts Blackpool only 5 points behind Posh with two games in hand , instead of the "real" 13 points and xGF sees a 14 goal swing in favour of the Tangerines.
 
That was a seriously good preview, at the time the Seasiders were 12th and 13 points off third place and remember, we are talking about just 7 weeks ago,  they finished third , three points ahead of the team in 4th !
 
I admit that I have impressed myself by re-reading those notes this morning !
 
Hard to say how much I was taken with Blackpool and I cannot believe that they have been able to hold onto all those key players and Critchley and his team have been busy using contacts and bringing in another crop (5 players) of what are likely to be talented young PL loanees . It is not like other clubs bringing in these kind of players, no one knows the U23 league like the head coach and his staff and his deep knowledge has proved fruitful so far and I see no reason why that will not continue to be the case. It is a big step up to the Championship and it might take a game or two for the Seasiders to adjust, but I have to take a little on them today after bad mouthing Bristol City for at least two seasons and their "new" head coach agreed with me at the end of last season ........
 
City have posted bottom 5 numbers for the second season in a row and are finally in a position which their performances across 91 games has merited. New head coach Nigel Pearson is of the same thinking and has openly said almost none of the players are good enough, or words to that effect.
 
It feels like Pearson is in mid clear out, he has got rid of some deemed surplus to requirements, but still has others he clearly doesn't want or rate, he has bought in just three so far, so is very short numbers wise, certainly of players he really wants. Two of the additions are veterans he knows well from when the trio were at Leicester City in Matty James and Andy King (useless fact, his younger sister used to babysit for my daughters), who could be good back at this level, but it doesn't always work and this is very much a task in progress and a club starting from a very low level. City's 18 points from their last 25 starts, was beyond awful and equates to 33 points over a full season, which would have seen them finish bottom, 11 points from safety. A big job for Pearson awaits and possibly another difficult season for City supporters .

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