I will be posting a lot on the website this week in build up to our Sunday birthday "celebrations" and to start, you can see a full copy of yesterday's newsletter below, that will give you a better idea of the format and how the email is set out....................
Monday March 25th
Next newseltter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Tuesday.
Euro 2020 qualifier: France- Iceland
Iceland have scored 2 goals exactly on each of their last four trips to play France, they include a 5-2 loss to the hosts un Euro 2016 and a 2-2 draw here late last year, ahead of the former I wrote ...........
France are playing for the third Sunday running and this is probably starting to feel less like a tournament than it is normal league play. They will also be in the national stadium today and whilst Iceland have already played here in the group stages, that has to be an advantage to the host nation. Having said that, France have not found anything easy to come by at these championships and have needed very late goals to beat Romania and Albania and had to come from behind to beat Ireland and ahead of the latter I wrote ..........
It is a bit of a cliche, but the tournament and UEFA need the host nation in a little longer and France have not had to play a game they "had" to win for 11 days, or at all for a week and they come into this with an extra 72 hours rest and preparation time. Ireland had a 90 minute battle with the Italians , where they scored a late winner, which was the signal for major celebrations late into the night in Lille and worldwide, as the Irish are everywhere ! They cannot be anywhere near as fresh as the French, they will start this fired up, not just because it is a Euro 2016 last 16 game, but because they still feel robbed over that infamous Thierry Henry handball, which cost them a place at the 2010 World Cup and that has not yet been forgotten ! They are very disciplined and organised in general ( the second half against Belgium aside) and they have conceded just one first half goal in ten competitive starts. France have scored all four goals in the second half at these championships, the only competitive games they have played since the last World Cup (when they only scored before the 45th minute in one of five starts), three after the 90th minute and it seems logical and sensible to sit this one out until we get the desired odds.
They again scored twice after the break and they are really struggling to get their nose in front early in games.
Ahead of their group opener with Romania I spoke about their defensive issues ............We are all aware of the host's ability, but they have not played a competitive game in two years and looked a little vulnerable at the back in four of five recent starts conceding twice to Cameroon, England, Russia and Netherlands and their backline has been hard hit by injury in recent months and central defender Raphael Varane is the latest withdrawl. so, offensively there could be some joy for Romania if they venture that far up field occasionally !
We have seen nothing to ease those concerns and they lose the spine of their defence today with the suspensions to holding player N'Golo Kante and central defender Adil Rami and it will de difficult for the hosts to keep Iceland, who have scored in every game so far ( and conceded) out for 90 minutes. France have two full backs who are a combined 68 years old and will probably have a 22yo centre back making his international debut today in a Euro Championship quarter final. I expect Iceland to score, but for France to have too much offensive quality once the dust has settled and to run out 2-1/3-1 winners.
France have conceded in their last four competitive games and Moldova also hit the woodwork in a game where they created little, some of those defensive concerns remain about the French and they should be put under more pressure tonight by the Icelanders, perhaps especially on the left flank where Layvin Kurzawa seems likely to continue in Lucas Digne's absence.Of course, the French have an abundance of offensive options and Antoine Griezmann, Raphael Varane, Olivier Giroud and Kylian Mbappe were all on the scoresheet last week, with Paul Pogba impressing. Iceland captain and central midfielder Aron Gunnarssonis a major doubt, they have conceded 28 goals in the last 12 starts he has missed, just 12 in 13 when he plays. 3-1 home win.
1.75 units France to win and both teams to score 3.0-3.20 general quote.
WTA: Miami Open:
Ashleigh Barty- Kiki Bertens
I opposed Bertens against Viktoria Kuzmova on Saturday ...........
Kiki Bertens kindly lost to Garbine Muguruza in Indian Wells as big favourite and the Spanish star has done little to frank the form with a frightful loss to Andreescu in her next round and losing yesterday to a player ranked #138 in her first start in Miami. Those notes are reproduced below (edit: see Saturday email)and included : " Bertens is 0-2 ( 0-4 in sets) in Indian Wells against players who are over 1.8m tall and has a losing record (39%) in her career against those that height on hard courts ." Bertens meets the 1.8m and still growing 20 yo Viktoria Kuzmova who is already top 50 and like all the youngsters on Tour, suddenly boosted by the exploits of Osaka and now Andreescu and also the " if you are good enough you are old enough" maxim. Kuzmova already has a win over Bertens on hardcourts and a recent one, beating her 6-2, 4-6 , 7-6 in Dubai and that should ensure she doesn't take to the court with any inferiority complex. She is happy on these US courts and made the Junior singles and doubles final at the US Open in 2016. Bertens underperformed in I/W on courts which should have suited her better and I just do not see why he is rated a 70%+ chance to win today.
We looked on course when the younster won the opening set , but Bertens lost just one of the 13 subsequent games and hit 14 aces during the clash, winning a whopping 85 percent of points when she got her first serve into play. In the final set, Bertens won 25 of the 35 points, including all four points on Kuzmova's second serve, and did not face a break point. Those aces are significant with the courts a little slow , for example, big servers Pliskova and Kvitova "only " have 25 between them in 10 sets at Miami Gardens.Bertens has lost all three meetings with popular Ash Barty, but the most recent, in Sydney a the turn of the year was super close, went to 35 games and it is probably fair to say the courts here probably suit Bertens better. In that match up Barty served really well, but we have seen some serving issues with her currently and a fast rising double fault count, 13 in Miami despite losing only 8 games, so what is going to happen when she is really under pressure ? She made 7 against Svitolina in her R16 defeat in Indian wells, winning just 39% of points on second serve and allowing the Ukranian a massive 21 break points. Barty is 7-8 in R16 of Premier events and is 7-17 against top 10 opponents in all starts (18-31 v top 20) and it is hard to equate those numbers with odds of sub 1.60 today.I just have to see this closer.
1.75 units Kiki Bertens to beat Ash Barty 2.61 Pinancle/Sportmarket Pro.
Anett Kontaveit - Bianca Andreescu
I only just watched Andreescu- Kerber from the last round, after beating the German former world number one and multi slam winner in the Indian Wells final, I expected Kerber to want to put the teenage (already) superstar in her place, with surely the events of the last month catching up on the youngster . That looked to be the case with Andreescu calling for the trainer "multi" times, her use of medical treatments was either genuine, or gamesmanship, it riled Kerber who her called her opponent a "drama queen" and if upsetting Kerber was the purpose, it worked ! However, the 18 yo has now played 14 matches in just over three weeks, she has won 13, six went to three sets and an incredible 5 were versus top 20 opponents (all wins), we are not going to get rich it seems opposing her too often, but how much is left in the tank ?
Anett Kontaveit brings a powerful forehand and good tennis brain to court and something that Andreescu has not really faced in the last month. My willingness to take on the youngster is partly to do with that, more to do with the cumulative effect of all the tennis that the Canadian has played in such a short time frame and also, that I don't feel Kontaveit is likely to fall for any tricks or be overly worried about "time outs", oh, and odds are big !
2 units Anett Kontaveit to beat Bianca Andreescu 2.91 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Su-Wei Hsieh- Caroline Wozniacki
I opposed Wozniacki in here first start in Indian Wells........
Caroline Wozniacki has not played since the Australian Open when she was handed a bit of a beating by Maria Sharapova, in R3, if we were talking about Serena or Venus that would not mean much, but the Great Dane plays a LOT and loves hard courts, she would usually play 2-3 of the interim events ALWAYS Doha where she has a good record and one or two others (usually Dubai). She planned to play three I believe, withdrew early from one, claimed a viral infection stopped her playing in Doha , but added she would be fine for Dubai, which she also missed. She was not in the best early season form either and I see that she is scheduled to play this evening (not a night session) but late in the day and we have spoken of this before, Wozzy says she is a morning person, likes to get up and train/practice early and doesn't like the late games which mean a long day to fill after that prep is done.
Ekaterina Alexandrova has played 11 matches since Wozniacki last stepped on court, making the last 8 in St Petersburg ( taking Sabalenka close) and semis in Budapest and the 24 yo is up to a career high ranking, albeit only #59, but is in form and ready to do herself justice and we don't know that about Wozzy. She has been playing increasingly better versus top 10-20 ranked players and bagelled Sloane Stephens in Sydney. Close match in prospect.
Wozniacki lost that 7-5 in the third set.
She came here and has beaen Sasnovich and Monica Niculescu, but didn't really impress in either, she had trouble with Niculescu who is great fun to watch with her extreme grip and forehand slice which can drive opponents nuts on a going day. Today, Wozniaki will face more of the same against Hsieh who put out Naomi Osaka in the last round..........
She won in three sets, took her two very easily, but went walkabout in the middle of the match against a player who is used to losing to the best in double quick time, so no reason for those concerns to have eased quite yet.
Today she meets Su-Wei Hseih who is made of sterner stuff than Wickmayer. The pair faced off in Melbourne at the AO earlier this year and Hseih had the eventual champion in a bit of trouble after winning the first set.
Hseih love these high profile match ups she is 3-4 against top 10 opponents in the last 12 months and six of those went the distance (including three on similar courts in Dubai in build up, where she beat Kerber and Pliskova), add in the meeting with Osaka (who was not ranked top 10 at the time) and the Japanese/US player's current problems , plus how she played yesterday and this has three sets an/or possible upset written all over it.
Hseih can play all the shots Niculescu can, she was standing very close to receive the Osaka serve, especially the second and if she can do that to her, the Wozniacki serve will hold few fears. The key to beating the Chinese player is to pin her behind the baseline, but on this surface for Wozzy, I don't think that is an option. The Dane has a good h2h record against Hseih but the longer I think about how this will play out, the harder I feel it is for Wozniacki to win, also, I spoke about those health issues above, I thought she looked underweight and very slight, even fragile on Saturday and suspect she is still a way off full fitness.
2 units Su-Wei Hsieh to beat Caroline Wozniacki 2.60 Pinancle/Sportmarket Pro.
Yulia Putintseva- Karolina Pliskova
Very quick tunraround for these two who both played yesterday, but this is the night game so a little respite with that. My notes on Yulia Putintseva from her win over Anastasija Sevastova are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. She bounced back from losing the opening set 6-1 to drop just five more games, she had a lot of trouble with the wind early in that contest, but was firmly in control after it died down and I hope that she realises that she plays better when keeping her temper under control. After the win she said:"
I practice here in Florida, so I already like these conditions, and I was ready for what’s coming. The court seems very comfortable for me, pretty slow. I feel good here."
Standing between Putintseva and a spot in the quarterfinals is former World No.1 Karolina Pliskova who beat Alizé Cornet in three sets later in the day yeaterday, so a few hours less rest for her. Pliskova played Putintseva in their first match of the 2019 season at the Brisbane International, recovering from a set and a break down to win in three tough sets.Pliskova has won the last three h2h meetings and all were on hard courts, but they have been increasingly close and I think it was noteworthy that YP had a lot of joy in the match in Australia on her opponents second serve and Pliskova's SS numbers have been on the low side in most starts since the Australian Open and if the courts here are slower and it is hard to be 100% certain yet about the speed, than that should suit her less and Putinitseva more. The Kazakh should also be suited by the late timing of this match as that will slow the court still further and Pliskova already commented about that being an issue yesterday v Cornet and this is scheduled for quite a bit later in the evening.
1.75 units Yulia Putintseva +4.5 games 2.11 Pinnacle/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Yulia Putintseva -Anastasija Sevastova (written March 24th)
I do not like to oppose players (especially twice) , lose and then back them to win, but I don't see what option I have here ! The odds have basically twisted my arm behind my back and dared me not to bet !
I backed belligerent Belinda Bencic to beat Yulia Putintseva on Friday when my notes included .........
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Oh my goodness, how did Kirsten Flipkens not beat Yulia Putintseva on Wednesday ? Flipkens was the better player and served for the match at 5-3 in the third and Putinseva really rode her luck and this will end in tears and fairly quickly if he serves at the same level against a returner of Bencic's abillity. In midweek my notes actually also discussed a meeting between these two in Melbourne earlier this year .....................
At the Australian Open I opposed Yulia Putintseva against Belinda Bencic and spoke about her record on this surface versus top 50 opposition..............
Now she meets diminutive Yulia Putintseva who is listed at 1.63m (maybe if she was wearing high heels) and is "feisty" if we are being polite and could start an argument in an empty room, she met another of the same ilk in R1 , beating an ,out of sorts currently, Barbora Strycova. Putintseva is not ranked as highly as Siniakova and Bencic has a good record versus shorter players, 72% win rate against those 1.68m or less, YP has a (just) 35% win rate v top 50 opponents on hard courts and is 1-8 in R2 of fast court (non Roland Garros) slams , with her only win over a wild card opponent ranked circa 160.
Kirsten Flipkens is ranked outside the top 50, but only just and has been yo-yoing between 45-56 since last June. She is a former top 20 player and has that kind of ability and range of shot on a going day even at 33yo and, she is 5-1 in R1 in her last six appearances in Miami, yes we are on different courts, but largely positive memories of the city/tournament and some big wins here for her including Kvitova (#8) and she has also taken Sharapova (#7) and Agnieszka Radwanska(#4) to three sets and no reason to feel the new surface will not suit. She is on a run of 8-3 on hardcourts versus players ranked 21+ who are under 1.68m tall. YP is 3-5 in Miami, only one win came in the main draw with three losses v lower ranked opposition. Regardless of who this plays out, is very difficult to make a case for Putintseva being such a strong favourite.
At the Australian Open Bencic won in three sets, by 4 games , but has become one of the hottest players on Tour subsequently and made the semis at Indian Wells.
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Bencic behaved appallingly and it is not often you say that in a match involving Putintseva , who could start an argument in an empty room, without the comments referring to her. Bencic lost it, but as much down to frustration I feel, as YP was not missing anything, was returning everything and any points Bencic did win, had to be won two or three times. It was the best I have seen from Putintseva since she broke into the top 30 two years ago, she was close to falling out of the top 100 prior to Roland Garros last May, a couple of more wins here will take he close to breaking into that 30 level again and althought I have to say I did not see it coming, she looked all that and more against Bencic.
She has another tough match up today against Anastasija Sevastova who loves these US hard courts, especially in New York, where she has made the last 8 three years running, but she could be vulnerable right now. She withdrew from Indian Wells ( was 5-0 down in her first match) and although she won her opener here in a decider, the set she lost was by 6-0 and she lost in her first match in both Dubai and Doha in build up to the US swing of the Tour. The pair are 1-1 h2h on these courts , Sevastova's win last year went to the wire . I have to try something on YP.
2 units Yulia Putintseva to beat Anastasija Sevastova 2.70 Pinancle/Sportmarket Pro.
