Copa Libertadores betting tip: Athletico Paranaense- Boca Juniors
Jul 24, 2019
Copa Libertadores: Athletico Paranaense- Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors are the second most successful team (6 wins) in Copa Libertadores history, the #1 team since 2000. Athletico Paranaense are relative novices and only played in the competition five times previously, but did make one final and they look a club on the up, they also won the Copa Sudamericana last year and are getting a taste for international competition. They will know that the return leg will be (very) tough and given their road form which we often discuss and how strong they are here in Curitiba ( likewise), they will want a lead to take to BA next week. The two actually met in group stage play, CAP won the home leg 3-0 back in April comfortably ( 21 attempts, 10 on target, 6 big chances, hit the woodwork, denied by 7 saves) in a famous victory, they lost the return on Matchday 6, but had already qualified, were leading at the 72nd minute and only conceded the winner in the 5th added minute when they had played 15 a man short. They will have learned a lot from that and know they are not going to get too much go their way in terms of 50-50 or even 60-40 decisions.
I gave CAP a big write up ahead of a home game with Internacional 10 days ago ..........
Here in Curitiba ,Atletico Paranaense are amongst the most strongest of teams as host and are 19-2-4 in their last 25 Serie A starts, that's a 76% win rate , scoring 58 goals at an average of 2.32 per game, we can add in 3/3 wins in the Copa Libertadores this season by a combined 8-0 and that is about as impressive a run as you will ever see, even in Brazil, where home teams rule !
However, they did look a little jaded (and this was borne out by one or two results) before the Copa America break and I wrote about the reasons at that time ........... Athletico are a good team, but the archetypal Brazilian one in that almost all their points are collected at home ( we have discussed this multi times in recent weeks) and this season they are doing battle on three fronts, which is very rare for them in late May. Actually it is four competitions as they are in the final of the Recopa Sudamericana final and played the first leg with River Plate (won 1-0) a couple of days ago and they travel to Argentina for the return after this. Their squad is very stretched right now and this is a big chance for Flamengo, I expect many to be rested today and this game to be sacrificed.
They are one of the teams I expect to have benefitted most from the break and they looked good in a 1-1 draw with Flamengo in the Copa do Brasil quarter finals in midweek, they showed some very inventive play, got in behind a good team countless times and had two early goals disallowed, one was "good" and most officials allow the other. They played with great energy, dominated all stat categories and led, were then denied a stone wall penalty, conceded an equaliser almost immediately, then missed a handful of really big chances before scoring a late "winner", which was again disallowed ! Pretty certain that most officials give that too and CAP will feel very hard done by some decisions in that game and they might easily have scored five/six against one of the very best teams in Serie A.
They won that 1-0 (on another day had enough chances for 3-0) and then drew away to Flamengo in the Copa (see above) return, winning on penalties and last weekend won 4-0 on the road to CSA, a four goal away win in Brazil, to any opposition is rare and confidence levels must be through the roof right now. Boca have not played a competitive game in 52 days and that gives a further and big advantage to Athletico.
2 .5 units Athletico Paranaense -0.5 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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