Ligue 2 betting tip: Guingamp-Le Mans
Sep 30, 2019
Ligue 2: Guingamp-Le Mans
Last time out I was keen on Guingamp and/or wanting to oppose Sochaux, definitely the latter and ahead of that, my notes detailed how poor the host's numbers were and also included ..........
Guingamp retained a big budget for this season (25m) but we saw little from them through the opening five games and they were not the first team to struggle with life back in Ligue 2 following relegation , but four points from their last two starts is a sign that possibly they are getting back on track and the win at leaders Lorient looks good on paper and they bounced back immediately with a win away to a decent Clermont team so the form line is good. I also like that Guingamp had 19 attempts ITB in those two starts, only two less than they totalled in their previous four and the best offensive numbers since they scored three goals on opening day. They are starting to look more settled now and have a solid looking team on paper, it has taken a while to get them to bond, but the international break has doubtless helped and Bryan Pele, LLoyd Palun and especially Pierrick Valdiva who has been a late and good addition in CM and was a big player in Nimes' promotion side, amongst others, now look up to speed. Guingamp are starting on the front foot and have a +4 goal difference in the first half and if they continue that today, or get ahead of Sochaux at any time, it will take the home side out of their comfort zone.
No early goal, infact, Guingamp were 2 down inside 35 minutes and lost 3-1, a strange one, Pele did not start (see above) and they switched to a 3 at the back, I think for the first time this season, nothing wrong with that per se, but it seemed odd on the back of an improved performance. Head coach Patrice Lair was sacked shortly afterwards and had only been in charge for 8 games, amid rumours he has already fallen out with the players .....he doesn't waste much time ! Interim boss Sylvain Didotlooks sure to go back to basics, or how things were, but clearly plenty of issues at the club and he will be without Felix Eboa Eboa who was sent off late last week and hard to believe any more could have gone wrong in that game !
Le Mans have a good budget for a newly promoted team and some potential and goal threat, their ITB numbers are + which is unusual for a bottom half of the table team in Ligue 2, but they are in a mess defensively at present and conceding far too easily, 8 in their last two starts, away to Rodex and home to Ajaccio, ahead of the former I wrote ...........
I spoke about these two newly promoted teams in pre season and saw Le Mans as having far and away the more potential of the three who came up. The visitors had a big budget by National standards (4.5m) and upped that to 11m for this campaign, Rodez raised theirs from 2.1m to the minimum 6.5m, which was not enough to keep top scorer Florian David and cannot play in their own stadium with home games being held in Toulouse, with 2,000 crowds rattling around the 33,000 stadium. They started well enough and will be pleased with mid table, but conceded 3 to Orleans in their last "home" start ( visitors had 10 attempts on target and were denied by 7 saves) and have not won in four.
Le Mans fell out of the blocks but came from 2 down to beat Orleans on penalties in the cup and then saw off in form Sochaux 2-0 without allowing their opponent an attempt of note in 90 minutes and look to finally be finding their feet, they made two good looking additions in the break, with Aboubakary Kanté and Guessouma Fofana joining. Aboubakary had 10 goals for relegated AS Béziers in Ligue 2 last season and arrives on loan from Cercle Brugge he has a knock today, but Fofana is in the squad, he is a busy midfielder who played 30 Ligue 1 games in the last two seasons and 33 times in the Amiens promotion team of 2016-17 . This kind of highlights what quality the almost double budget allows them to bring in.
They had a player sent off at Rodez, just after getting back into the game at 2-1 and not much is going their way either, the extended break ( not played for 10 days might have helped), Kanté (see above) played 20+ minutes off the bench last week and will surely be pressing to start.
Interesting game given all that has happened and the fairly unexpected poor starts both have made. Hard to trust either defensively, both have more goal threat than they have so far shown and I think we can expect to see goals.
2 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Guingamp : Guivarch, Caillard, Youfeigane – Mellot, Bussmann, Kerbrat, Niakaté, Palun, Poaty, Boudjemaa – Carnot, Phiri, Valdivia, M’Changama, Merghem, N’Gbakoto – Pelé, Roux, Pierrot, Gomis.
Le Mans : Aymes, Thuram – Duponchelle, Vardin, Lemonnier, Dasquet, Ebosse, Musavu-King – Confais, Boé-Kane, Boissier, Fofana – Julienne, Diarra, Vincent, Crehin, Kanté, Moussiti-Oko.
Good Luck.