Premier League betting tip: Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers
Oct 19, 2020
Premier League: Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers
I spoke often last season about how many times Wolves trailed in games, only to then come on strong and salvage a result, calling them the "dream team" for "in play" bettors. Through 29 rounds I noted .........Wolves are the worst first half team in the Premier League with just 24 points and 15 "defeats" three more than anyone else, but they are good for 4th place after the break (losing just one second half) and I have lost count of the number of times they have come from behind to salvage a result under Nuno Espírito Santo and they are a dream for "in play" bettors.
They actually finished the season in 19th place for first half performance, sandwiched in between Norwich and Bournemouth who are now plying their trade in the second tier. They were third only to Manchester City and Liverpool after the break and lost half the second 45 minutes that those two clubs did (6 losses each) posting a 18-17-3 record. Too early to read too much into this season so far, but Wolves are 1-1-2 before the break and if we look at their game with Manchester City, it was a microcosm of last season in 90 minutes. City dominated the first half and led 2-0 at the break, Wolves came on strong from that point, and might have got level with better finishing, they pulled one goal back , before conceding a 96th minute third goal.
Right now, no reason to think that too much has changed and that they will continue to be better late rather than early in games.
We sided with Leeds united at huge odds when they hosted City themselves before the international break ..........
I previewed the Yorkshire derby between Sheffield United and Leeds United at Bramall Lane last Sunday when my notes included .............
Leeds have hit the ground running and scored seven goals in two Premier League starts, an impressive 4-3 defeat at Anfield and demolition of Fulham who also came up from the Championship along with United. The visitors were the best team in each of the last two Championship campaigns and were deserved winners last season, statistically they were not only the best in the second tier, but a top 8-10 team in England and that is what we have seen from their two opening games. They have quality, play at an incredibly high tempo even by Premier League standards and huge self belief. They also have a genius head coach in Marcelo Bielsa who is more than a little strange ( I saw him doing some very odd things pre kick off at Griffin Park) but is adored by players and supporters and seems to have finally found a "home". United's style of play is also going to be far better suited to the 8 fewer games they will be asked to play in the top flight. The visiting side are the better team in my opinion, won here in this fixture in the Blades' promotion campaign and will want to prove they are the best team in Yorkshire. The hosts have had the fewest attempts in the Premier League this season and they are averaging just nine shots per since the start of last season, a top flight low. Away win.
Leeds were the better team, but needed a late winner to secure the points. They have had a free week subsequently to rest up and more importantly prepare for this game against another top two team. City lost 5-2 at home to Leicester last weekend when I wrote ..........
Manchester City will be determined to hold onto the coattails of Liverpool this season and not lose the title race by Christmas like last season, incredibly, ITB and xP suggested that City were much better than Pool last season despite losing the title by a whopping 18 points. They have played two games since losing out in the Champions League quarter finals , beating Wolves 3-1 at Molineux and Bournemouth 2-1 at home in the League Cup. I don't know how many times we have discussed the Sky Blues in the last 7-8 years, definitely a LOT and rarely without speaking about their defensive problems and they have never really been resolved , I suppose it is not as big a problem when you are scoring 101 goals per season (which is their average for the last three campaigns) , but it catches them out in the business end of the Champions League, or so it seems.
Since the start of the 16-17 campaign City have won 60 home games, they have kept clean sheets in 29, conceded exactly one goal in 30 and conceded two on one occasion. Those base numbers alone suggest that even if City win they are more likely to concede , but those stats are skewed slightly in favour of clean sheets as they include quite a few end of season games against unmotivated opposition, for example, even that 4-0 win over Liverpool back in July when the Reds just turned up to receive the trophy and a few plaudits !
City have a very tough run of games also playing Leeds, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs in the coming weeks and they are very short handed at present with 6-7 first team players sidelined and no recognised out and out striker today. In addition, we will see a bench full of players few outside of Manchester know too well.
That was a bit of a shock to their system conceding 5 at home, they did get back on track to a degree in midweek with a 3-0 win over Burnley in the League Cup, but they will face a very different team today, one with a completely different style and where Pep Guardiola will be visiting his mentor El Loco ! They will again have to do so without a recognised striker.
City dominated the early exchanges and led 1-0 but United came on very strong, equalised and squandered several big opportunities to take all three points. They have adapted incredibly well to life in the Premier League, statistically they looked a top 10 team in England last season, even in the Championship and nothing so far to sway us from that thinking, only to re enforce it . They are very offensive minded, only play one way and will be looking to take the game to Wolves from the off, but I can see both teams having periods of dominance today and with the Premier league averaging 3.71 goals per game and still to register a goal less contest, I think the best value is with goals ............
1.75 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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