In the latest of the 13th birthday offers, I have two, just two ,subscriptions to ,if not give away, then offer at CRAZY LOW rates. Email me at gowi8@btinternet.com for details, first come first served, I will update here as soon as they have gone.
You can see yesterday's full newsletter below, it was not a typical day in that notes were shorter than usual on a couple of games and it didn't make huge profits ( a small one), with 3 winners and 3 losers, but it serves fairly well as a sample.
Today there were four previews in the subscriber email, 6-7 are planned for tomorrow.
Thursday March 14th
Schedule for this weekend..............
Friday 15/03: email @ 10.00 UK time with tennis and Ligue 2 football.
Saturday 16/03: email @ 10.00 UK time with main focus on English and MLS football.
Sunday 17/03: email @ 09.15 UK time, golf, tennis, English and MLS football.
Please note the earlier than usual sending time on Sunday.
UEFA Europa League:
FC Salzburg- Napoli
Ahead of the first leg my notes went a lot like this ...........
I like Napoli, they are usually fun to watch and not a typical Italian team, they have got a lot of European experience in recent years and look booked for second place in Serie A, so have no reason not to give this their full attention. However, everything has it's price and odds are too big on the visitors this evening. No team has impressed in the last couple of editions of the Europa League as much as Salzburg and they have served us very well, I spoke about that at the end of September when they hosted Celtic ....................
Hosts have a fearsome home record and made the semi finals of this competition 12 months ago facing Real Sociedad, Dortmund, Lazio and Marseille here in the knockout stages, winning three ( a draw was enough to progress in the other) by a combined 8-2. That quartet would all be considered superior to Celtic, especially this version of the Glasgow club, more of which later. Red Bull are 9-0-0 domestically with a 24-7 goal difference and won away to Leipzig in their first group stage game and have scored 2+ goals in their last eight starts, at an average of 3.25 pg. They met Celtic in the group stage back in 2014-15, scored five across the two games, winning 3-1 in Glasgow, drawing 2-2 here in Salzburg, the Austrians were +13 total in attempts on target, with the Celtic keeper making nine saves in this fixture alone. The Hoops had won the SPL by 29 points the season before, in 17-18 that was down to 9 and maybe the "unthinkable" could happen this season, they are 5th after 7 rounds, six points off the pace set by Hearts and head coach Brendan Rodgers has been bemoaning the lack of funds made available and his options. They have scored just five goals in their last six starts and that is almost unheard of , in the SPL they have 7 goals, which is 11.2 LESS than they have averaged through seven starts in the previous five campaigns. Tonight they are also missing key defensive players and I expect a comfortable home win.
Ahead of the return game in Glasgow I updated with................ Salzburg won 3-1 and that scoreline was extremely flattering to the Scottish champions. The Austrians are very impressive, absolutely relentless in their "press" and totally committed to attacking football. They are a perfect 5/5, have averaged 3.0 goals per game and already won the group, Celtic need a point to progress, but if they lost could be passed by Leipzig beating pointless Rosenborg in Germany. Both Salzburg and Leipzig are sponsored by Red Bull and the Austrians have made no secret of their desire to do their "brothers" a favour. Salzburg sporting director Christoph Freund said: "Of course we will go full throttle in Glasgow and we want to win and if that means we can help the people of Leipzig we will be double happy." The Salzburg style of football means that it must be very difficult for them to "switch off" anyway, they hold a 14 point lead approaching the half way stage of Bundesliga and after this weekend do not play again until February, so no need to hold back, they are 27-5-0 in competitive games this season and look the strongest team in Europe by far outside the big 5 leagues and on a different level to Celtic. If they give of their best, or even close, the home side will have to put in a season high performance to get something from this.
They won that 2-1 and their only subsequent domestic game prior to returning from their Winter break 5-1, they underperformed in their EL knockout stage away game with Club Brugge , but ahead of the return I explained why I felt that was and still took a lot of positives from that performance ............
On the extended highlights I watched they were not pressing quite as hard as usual and maybe they were not as sharp given the lack of game time, with that 90 minutes under their belt and also the same in a domestic cup quarter final win at the weekend, we can expect them to strip fitter this evening with a tie to turn around. They did create three chances when already ahead in Bruges, one was gilt edged and for two of them, they had nine players in the home penalty area, on the road in Europe with a lead, that is impressive and I expect more like the old Salzburg to be on show this evening.
They won the return 4-0 and whilst like almost every team they are clearly stronger at home, I am of the opinion they should be backed against all but Europe's very best, we could discuss all morning about whether Napoli fit into that category, but I actually mean the very elite teams, of which there are few. No point in discussing this any more, these are odds I cannot let pass and I would sooner bet and lose than do so. I also like that Salzburg are pretty much unlike any team that Napoli will have faced domestically, probably, ever !
Napoli were "comfortable" 3-0 winners, which I guess is what many expected, but Salzburg "won" attempts 21-16, on target 6-4, hit woodwork 1-0, saves 1-6 and a goal was the minimum the visitors deserved and that would have given them a real chance of progression today. They will still not think they are totally out of things, given their fantastic home record in the competion (see above), but that will be huge ask and probably an impossible one if Napoli score and if opting for a home win, I would not overly worry were the visitors to score first and early, as I suspect that would be it for them and they would mentally be "ready for departure". As un-Italian as Napoli look at times, Serie A teams are not known for busting a gut for a result once the tie is won. Hosts will doubtless want a win to add to that fine CV, with Napoli another "name"and to further prove that the margin of defeat in the first leg was flattering to the home side.Conditions tonight will suit Salzburg more, wind and rain will give a real feel of -1 as opposed to actual temperature of around 4-5 degrees and in stark contrast to the mid/high teens in Naples this week.
Starting centre backs Kalidou Koulibaly and Nikola Maksimovic are suspended for the visitors, fellow central defender Raul Albiol remains injured which leaves just Vlad Chiriches (is he really only 29 yo ?) and Sebastiano Luperto, who have circa 5-6 games worth of minutes between them this season, Chiriches only seems to even make the squad as a last resort.
2 units FC Salzburg -0.5 ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Arsenal- Rennes
Arsenal looked well in charge of the first leg, dominating play and 1-0 (for 39 minutes) up, before the game changing dismissal of Sokratis, French teams are very good with the man advantage and won 3-1, but it will be far more difficult for them this evening at the Emirates. The Gunners are 13-2-1 here in the premier League ,scoring an average of 2.3125 goals per game and coming off a 2-0 weekend defeat of Manchester United . In the Europa League, they have scored 3+ goals in 5 of 9 home starts, with clean sheets in the last three. Rennes look good on the break and Arsenal will be wary and mindful of that, but they have already lost by 2 goals at Astana and Dynamo Kiev and are inexperienced in European terms. Unai Emery is an Europa League expert and looking to win his 4th competition title in six years, progression will give the Gunners two Champions League hopes and the pressure to claim a spot has been increased this week with four of the PL "Big 6" in the quarter finals of the premier competition and you just know that will have been a major topic of conversation in Arsenal and Chelsea boardrooms this week. Arsenal do not play again until April 1st and want a very positive outcome to take into that lengthy break. The return of Alexandre Lacazette tonight is seem as massive by the Gunners and he has 2 goals in his last 5 starts against Rennes.
1.75 units Arsenal -2 goals 2.18 asian line/Sportmarket.
Slavia Prague- Sevilla
First leg finished 2-2 and it is difficult to see Europa League specialists Sevilla progressing without winning this evening, ahead of last week's opener I spoke about Sevilla's dip in form and how important this was to their Champions League ambitions for next season............
Sevilla are struggling for form domestically, but almost always raise their game on European nights when the atmosphere at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán stadium is white hot and where the crowd are hugely passionate, intimidating and fun to watch . That dip in league form did not stop them seeing off Lazio 3-0 on aggregate last month in this competition and a fourth Europa League win for them in six seasons is probably their best route back into the Champions League, sitting as they do 5 points off top 4. They will not want to give up on the league and they have two big La Liga games either side of the return leg and they can focus on those if they can (almost) put this tie to bed tonight. Sevilla have won 17/18 competition home starts, keeping a clean sheet in 12, including 6 of the last 7 and winning 12 by multi goals, including 10 of the last 12. They have scored 16 in the four games this season, winning all by 2+. Slavia have decent road Europa League form, but when they do lose, it mirrors how Sevilla win and 5 of their last 6 defeats away from Prague have come by 2+ goals and they have FTS in 2/4 road starts in the competition this season.
Sevilla head coach Pablo Machín said yesterday that he still felt his team was " fundamentally strong" and that he expected them to "continue to be reliable" in Europe and that Sevilla were technically far superior to Slavia and only had to match then in intensity, attitude and concentration. The hosts will be without suspended Franco Vázquez tonight, but I think it is more about that attitude and if the crowd do their part and they always really crank up the vibe pre kick off (it is something special) on these European nights, like Anfield , then I think normal service will be resumed and this could turn into a season defining/changing game for Los Rojiblancos
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Sevilla led twice, missed four big chances (Slavia did not even create one !) ,"won" attempts inside the box 12-4, saves 1-5 and did that without their overall game really clicking, do I need to tell you that it did just a couple of days later when they put five past Sociedad ! Game stats were not that different (passing was a little better in the second) and if they had scored 10-11 goals across the two games, no one could really have complained. Atmosphere will be hot in Prague, but Genk, FCK, Astana and Villarreal have all kept Slavia scoreless here in the last two seasons and really , this should hold few fears for Sevilla. Their top striker Wissam Ben Yedderhas 7 goals in six EL starts and bagged a hat-trick at the weekend when I understand that Manchester United scouts were watching and he can fire the visitors to a win.
2 units Sevilla -0.5 ball 2.04 asian line/Sportmarket.
Dynamo Kiev- Chelsea
Just a few lines about this. A long trip for the Blues who hold a 3-0 lead , so, job all but done and with an absolutely "must win" game away to Everton on Sunday. Kiev are HUGELY experience in Europe , they started slowly at Stamford Bridge and didn't do themselves justice, but Chelsea are very worried about this game. They have called the playing surface a disaster and claim to be fearful of injuries. Chelsea's Argentine striker Gonzalo Higuain did not travel with the squad.Chelsea head coach Maurizio Sarri said: "I think it's [the pitch] really dangerous."It will be very difficult to play good football here. We have to accept the situation."I don't understand why Uefa give so much attention to everything, like the players' list, and then we have to play on such a bad pitch. It will also be very difficult for Dynamo. It's a problem for us but also for our opponents."I don't know the reason, probably winter ( ya think !), because I played here two years ago and the pitch was wonderful."
Freezing temperature at kick off, 4 hour flight, two hour time difference, poor pitch, almost a home full house and intimidating atmoshere, main striker at home, no need to win and a huge game in three days time.
1.5 units Dynamo Kiev level ball 3.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
WTA: Indian Wells:
Belinda Bencic- Karolina Pliskova
I am quite pleased I picked up on Belinda Bencic early on her comeback trail , disappointed to have missed out on her here, we will be talking about her a lot this year, especially in mid summer, but for today, only briefly, ahead of her match with Alison Riske at Wimbledon my notes included ...........
Alison Riske is a good grass court player with 63 wins on the surface, but within that she is 13-17 versus those ranked top 50 and IF, Belinda is at long last fit and can play her natural game, she has too much quality and natural ability for Riske.
The Swiss prodigy became the youngest woman to break into the Top 10 since 2009 when she made her Top 10 debut in February 2016 as an 18-year-old, but has struggled with a host of injuries since. A back injury sidelined her for two months in 2016, wrist surgery kept her off tour for five months last season.
She returned late in 2017 and went 28-3 to get back in the Top 100, she started this year by winning the Hopman Cup with Roger Federer and beating Venus Williams in the first round of the Australian Open, then she was forced out of the Miami Open with a pre-stress fracture in her foot. Eight weeks of rest with no weight on the foot.. I will let her tell the rest:
" I tried to keep fit, do the bike, core exercises. I was kind of practicing but not full. "I was kind of ready for Roland Garros, but I hadn't practiced much. I felt fine, but obviously you need a lot of practice. But I decided to go to Roland Garros to see the tournament and just play. "I unexpectedly won my first round and the second round was ok too, but I felt like my game wasn't there. I hadn't practiced much so it was normal. I wasn't expecting much. But now it's much better. I've been practicing normal since the week before Roland Garros until now. "I'm looking out for my body but I'm trying to get fit and trying to get the match play. That's the first thing that goes away, the eyes, the timing. That's really tough. You can only get it back in matches. In practice you cannot simulate it.""That happens when you play a lot of matches. That feeling always comes back when you're playing 5-6 matches in one tournament and playing the finals. You don't really think anymore. It happens automatically. "I lost this automatism. You have to work for it and it comes back eventually. But it's very tough without it."
She played s- Hertogenbosch last month and spoke about how much happier she felt on grass: "The bounce, everything, I don't have to adjust my game at all. It goes perfectly because of the low bounce. I like that a lot. It just feels much better than clay."
Bencic won Junior Wimbledon in 2013, in 2015 she made the final in s- Hertogenbosch , won Eastbourne becoming the youngest woman to win a Premier-level title since Caroline Wozniacki (2008 New Haven) and then reached the last 16 here. She had to retire from Wimbledon in R2 in 2016, missed 2017, so this is the first time she has returned if not fully fit, then very close. "Obviously I love grass so the first moment I step on the practice court and play the first balls, it feels natural and positive."
She beat Caroline Garcia in R1 in two sets , dominating the big points and she said afterwards that she did not want to jinx anything, but that she had zero concerns about her fitness and that she was injury free.If that is true she will win today and be top 20 by the end of the year.
We have to take a certain amount on trust, but if she is healthy and confident the rest can and will come back quickly , if we knew without doubt that she was 100%, her chance today would be circa 69%, so, at around 44% any doubts are more than factored in.
Back in 2014 I wrote about her potential and how she had been coached for the top since she started walking ...........
The Swiss player has been groomed for stardom since she was four years old, she made her big breakthrough in 2013 taking the Junior titles at both the French Open and Wimbledon. She has been compared to Martina Hingis and whilst tennis has moved on since her heyday, they are tactically from the same mould, Bencic is a highly intelligent player and tactically astute way beyond her years.
Tennis great Chris Evert has seen a lot of her in Florida and said :"She's very focused mentally, emotionally very composed and I just thought from day one: 'She has it.'"
Mother of Hingis , Melanie Molitor has worked with Bencic since she was seven years old and said that the teenager is relentless in preparation and sacrifice and can out think opponents."We've put much emphasis on discipline and versatility. I think it makes a big difference that she is versatile and can rely on all these shots on the court.
Bencic is the worst kept secret in tennis, you do not have 11 sponsors before your 16th birthday, without having the X factor.
BB won Dubai in build up to this, she beat Sabalenka, Halep, Svitolina and Kvitova to take the title, that is impressive , but not as much as this fact, all wins came in three sets. Those four are as tough as teak and to see off each in a battle royal, back to back etc is just amazing. We can think about that for a second !
OK, back to real life !
She has not dropped a set here, beat defending champion Naomi Osak 3&1 (!!!!) and wasranked #23 pre tournament and with only R2 points to defend and not having played Miami last year.................hello top 10 !
Bencic is looking for a 6th straight win over top 10 opponents and Pliskova is not dissimilar in some ways to Osaka , tall, big serve and ground strokes and I cannot see beyond the Swiss Miss today. The post match comments from Osaka make interesting reading :
"I tried to be positive throughout the entire match."Honestly, she was just playing so well, and she's such an incredible player. I think there wasn't anything that I could do in that situation, given how I was playing."
Bencic held her position on the baseline and proved to be the more consistent aggressor throughout the match, breaking Osaka's serve five times. "It's really difficult," Osaka said. "I feel like I was going back, and then I started playing defensive, which isn't something that I should be doing, given how my game is."I felt like she had control when the point started. I think I was trying to be too aggressive in the beginning. And then towards the end, I tried to make a few more shots and mix up the depth. I think she was prepared for that, too."
2 units Belinda Bencic -3 games 2.30 Pinnacle /Sportmarket Pro.
Venus Williams- Angelique Kerber
Angelique Kerber beat Arnya Sabalenka on Tuesday when my notes included ..........
Angelique Kerber did not like being world number one, she is not the only player to struggle with the crown and all the fuss and hoop-la and level of expectation which goes along with it, others thrive, but some prefer just to be a liitle less under the spotlight. We have seen her win a slam (Wimbledon) since losing that top ranking and I do not doubt her year is planned around the big four events nowadays and we have have not seen a deep run at one of the more mundane tournaments, even a premier, for some time and maybe we won't. Bit early to be hard and fast about that, unlike Serena, but that is my thinking.
Kerber has a 15-10 record in Indian Wells,but is 2-5 versus top 20 here and one of those wins was 6 years ago (1-3 since).
Sabalenka was a bit of a no show, her game was off, she fell out of the blocks, served and returned poorly , lost the first set 6-1, took the second and looked like she would win, but the German prevailed in the decider 6-4. Two things, I think Sabalenka would have just walked away with that once she levelled a few months back and she was poor, but still took AK very close and threw it away in the end. I think Kerber will have to up her level to progress tonight and want to take a chance on Venus at biggish looking odds. Ahead of her win over Christina McHale on Monday I wrote ..........
Christina McHale is a journeywoman player who is usually ranked in the 45-70 range, normally at the lower end, she did have one brief run at top 20, reaching 24, but that was very short lived and 7 years ago, nothing similar has happened since. Her current ranking is #140 and will improve significantly after 4 wins here (two in qualifying), but she has been around the mid 100's for six months. McHale is better than that, but, as I started by saying, a journeywoman and has overachieved to reach this far, she has lost her last seven R3 Premier level event match ups, five in two sets and her only win in 11 at this stage came versus a teenager who was struggling for form at the time.
Venus is, well, Venus ! She has closing in on 800 career wins, 23 here in Indian Wells and has only once lost on these courts to a non top 20 ranked player. She is 111-8 against players ranked outside the top 100, several of those losses came early in her time on tour and she has won 98 of the last 103 ! Almost all defeats in that category were in low level events you will have to go back 20 years to find one which was not ! Now, this is a good one............. she has won 14/14 against fellow US players ranked 101+ ALL in two sets, infact, in those 28 sets, she has only given up more than three games six times ( 4 and 5 three times each.....never even taken to a tie break).
Venus will be buoyed by her win over Petra Kvitova and whilst she would never say it, by sister Serena going out in her half of the draw. Williams the elder is protecting semi final points here from last year, so needs to go as deep as possible and as quickly as she can. Venus is fast approaching 39 yo and I am pretty certain all R16 games are tomorrow, so a quick turnaround.
Williams won 6-2 7-5 and actually, McHale played pretty well, Venus then beat big serving Mona Barthel the next day 6-4 6-4. It was more of the same from Williams the elder, very professional performances doing enough to win with what looked like the minimum effort, playing the biggest points better and with more focus/effort. I hope there is a second gear, the earlier win over Petra Kvitova from a set down implied there was. She now meets another leftie and, this is absolutely key................. she is an amazing 75-16 lifetime against those plaing the "wrong way round" ! Many do not like playing lefties (we discussed Svitolina's record yesterday) and you would be amazed how many top players struggle against left handers, even those ranked much lower. She is 12-3 on hard courts verses left handed top 10 ranked players, 3-0 on clay (Indian Wells is somewhere between the two), that 15-3 combined record with an 83.3% win rate must be "right up there" in that category. She is also 9-1 in quarter finals against lefties, last/only loss to Monica Seles in 2002. Venus has semi final points from last season to defend also.
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Kerber is 20-19 on clay or hard versus top 50 ranked players 1.83m + tall .
None of the above stats bear any relation to match odds............
2.5 units Venus Williams to beat Angelique Kerber @ 2.82 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
