Serie A betting tip: Udinese- Crotone
Dec 15, 2020
Serie A: Udinese- Crotone
Earlier this month I noted .................
I have been singing the praises of Udinese for a couple of weeks now and they have won back to back at home to Genoa and last week 3-1 at Lazio.............
Udinese made the top 6 in all stat categories going into last week's home game with Genoa despite their lowly league position and I noted ...........
Not much point in running full xP numbers, they are very tight with only 11 points separating all 20 teams, but Udinese again make the top 6 and Verona the bottom 6, with Benevento bottom of the pile. I cannot believe that there will be 10 league places between Verona or Udinese come the end of the season and expect to see I Bianconeri climbing the table soon.
I think the fact that the top 7 plus net numbers aside from Udinese fill the top 7 spots in the league and that the next best team occupies 9th, only further highlights Udinese's claim to be a top ten team.
Udinese got a glowing write up in relation to their league position and they are a net +46 ITB over Genoa and I am expecting a very motivated host today with Lazio and Atalanta their next opposition and easier points on offer this afternoon. They are unbeaten in their last 8 meetings with Genoa, have scored 2+ in each of the last four and are giving up half as many ITB chances as the visitors, with only Napoli allowing fewer. Time to start making the most of this defensive meanness and climbing the table.
Prior to that they had drawn 0-0 away to high fling and free scoring Sassuolo ...................
Add in that Udinese were the team I highlighted as a potential improver 12 days ago when I noted that their numbers are just great, they are plus in all four games for both ITB and BC's and no other team has even managed that, even for ITB alone. They are clearly better than 17th and now that they have that first win under their belt, they should kick on.We have not seen that yet, as they lost 3-2 at Fiorentina and 2-1 at home to league leaders Milan, but no shame in the latter where they conceded late and in the first they "won" attempts 16-5, on target 6-3 , BC's 4-2, ITB 8-4 and deserved FAR more. If you can call someone a bottom 3 team with elite numbers, then that side is Udinese and I would urge caution in opposing them for the time being. If it was anyone other than Sassuolo I would probably be big on the away team tonight, but can only bring myself to suggest a nominal bet.
Udinese made hard work of Genoa but it was a vital three points and maybe they will not feel quite the same level of pressure this morning. They are a net +14 ITB, Lazio +12 and the home side are right in the middle of a Champions League group stage , second to Dortmund whom they travel to play on Wednesday and for the next few days, that has to be considered priority. They will want to win today of course, but Udinese have no such distractions and are far better than the league table suggests.
Udinese have now given up the joint fewest (along with Juve) BC's and the second fewest ITB attempts on their own goal and who are fully focussed on this game only.
Their game that day was postponed, so they have only played once subsequently, a weekend 3-2 win at Torino who had improved quite a bit statistically in the last month or so. Udinese are now up to 10th and have a game in hand in most and their run highlights what you can find within these ITB/BC numbers . Crotone made the weekend notes when I shamefacedly have to admit they thumped Spezia, but this is a different task altogether and the visitors are operating on a different defensive plane, giving up 4.8 ITB attempts per game and 1.0 BC's compared to 9.4 and 2.82 for Crotone . The away side are also 0-0-7 against all top 12 teams they have faced who have finished the game with 11 men, conceding at the rate of 2.71 goals pg. Udinese by 2 .
2 units Udinese -1 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good luck !
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