Friday : Jeonbuk Motors- Suwon Bluewings

Saturday:

Ulsan Hyundai -Sangju Sangmu

Incheon United- Daegu FC

Gwangju FC- Seongnam

Sunday:

Pohang Steelers- Busan I'Park

Gangwon - FC Seoul

I cannot actually "preview" the upcoming K-League fixtures , that would seem wrong even if I felt capable of doing so and a case of fitting my needs around what little sport is available at the moment . I have seen people/sites suddenly covering games from Belarus or Nicaragua when they have never even mentioned those countries pre COVID-19 and in the words of perhaps the biggest fool (I wanted to use another word ! ) on the planet, that feels like "fake news" !

Having said that, some of you might be watching these games, even betting, so I can at least supply some very basic stats and background information which might be of some help /interest.

The league consists of just 12 teams some of whom we know quite well from the AFC Champions League games, they usually play each other three times before the league splits and then the top and bottom six play each other one final time, this season, as the campaign has been delayed, they will play each other twice before the split, making for a 27 game season

The top two qualify for the Champions League group stage, the third placed team for the CL playoffs, two teams are relegated, we already know that one of these is going to be Sangju Sangmu regardless of where they finish, as they are relocating from the very rural city of Sangju.The team finishing bottom will also be automatically relegated, if that is Sangju Sangmu, the team in 11th will go into a relegation playoff with a team from the second tier.

By the way, Sangju Sangmu are the army club, they are made up of players doing their two year national service and who, at the end of the second year return to their registered clubs.

Jeonbuk Motors are champions, beating Ulsan on goal difference by the narrowest of margins, the pair finishing 23 points clear of the rest, with only 11 points separating Seoul in 3rd from 9th placed Seongnam . This was Jeonbuk's 5th title in six years , it would have been 6 from 6 as they had six points more than champions Seoul in 2016, but were denied the championship by a 9 point deduction for bribery ! They are clearly the dominant force in Korean football, Ulsan were much improved last season and look to have bought well this time round, but that is outside my level of expertise with regard to these notes and I will try to stay factual and not give an opinion. Jeonbuk have picked up between 73 and 86 points in each of the last six seasons, only Ulsan (last season) earned more than 70, they had 79 and it was still not enough and highlights the mountain other clubs have to climb to dislodge Motors from the peak ! The runner up in 4 of the last 6 seasons has finished with "just" 65-67 points to further illustrate that.

Only Jeonbuk, Seoul and Pohang Steelers have won the title since 2009.

Gwanju were promoted from K-L2 as champions, six points ahead of Busan who won the playoff series.

Hopefully, that has set the scene a little, now we can look at opening day and what we can expect.

Since 2015 every K-League 1 season has produced an average of between 37.72% (2016) and 39.47% (2015 and 2019) home wins, that is a very small window and is something we have spoken about before in other countries, with certain leagues producing similar overall numbers year after year and even with different team splits in terms of who wins the points and scores the goals, these are numbers we can always use to our advantage, but again, I digress !

So, looking at those season numbers, we should expect the six weekend games to produce between 2.26 and 2.37 home wins, however, the last five opening rounds (30 games total ) have produced 19 "homes" for a 63.33% average and 3.8 wins for the host per season. It is a small sample, but still really noteworthy and you can back it up with valid reasons about why that might be the case, these opening games have also averaged 2.37 goals, a little off the five year K-L1 average of 2.63 but not at the low level we see in some leagues on opening day.

Gangwon games averaged the most goals of any team still in the top flight (3.0) , at home that was an eye catching 3.42 with 63% going over the 2.5 goal line and a whopping 42% with 4 or more goals. They host Seoul who hit the league average right on the head with 2.63 goals in away games, 58% going "over" the 2.5 handicap goal line. These two met four times last season, one finished 0-0 , but the other three averaged 4.0 and saw two or more goals in the second half of each.

Ulsan away starts produced a league high 3.21 goals, next highest was Suwon (3.0) with 37% over 3.5 and 26% going over 4.5 goals which are big numbers, they travel to Jeonbuk, who won 2 of the 3 meetings last season by 2+ goals and who have won 7 of their last 8 opening day games, four by 2+ goals , scoring at least twice in six. Suwon have not won on Matchday 1 since 2014, with one draw and four defeats subsequently, but they have scored in the last three.

The unknown factor with regard to all leagues is of course COVID-19, we will not know which players have been hit hardest by the virus, that doesn't have to mean having contacted the coronavirus, but they could have been in isolation, seen family members suffer, or have lost someone close and these issues will be mental rather than physical. Some players might even be fearful of playing and/or travel, but we have no way of truly knowing and therefore, cannot make it a major consideration. My own thinking is that any teams playing in their own stadium might have an increased advantage to begin with, if only because none of us have been travelling much (if at all) and it is one more thing to think about and an additional obstacle to overcome. Also, given the exceptional circumstances and empty stadiums these fixtures will have a more friendly/pre season vibe, at least for those leagues where we are in early season, or there is nothing much at stake, which might result in more goals and I suspect all concerned, the leagues, television companies, even governments would be happy with that and the increased entertainment that a few open games might bring. I will discuss this more once "our" leagues get underway.

Not sure how much help these notes have been, but it is fun to write about games again and we can think of this as my first pre season warm up !

Good luck and stay safe !