I cannot say that I have a very strong opinion about this, but we have spoken in the past about Bayern being too blase about conceding, having got into some nasty habits domestically where they score so freely that it doesn't matter much as they can usually find 3-4-5 goals themselves. That belief was probably not helped , or hindered by beating FC Salzburg 7-1 in the home leg in the previous round after drawing 1-1 in Austria, a game in which they trailed and looked likely to lose for much of the 90 minutes. This lack of real Bundesliga competition (they have won the title in each of the last 9 seasons, it will soon be #10) has probably cost them more success at the business end of the Champions League when the opposition gets stronger and teams are not quite so quick to lie down. In the last eight seasons, Bayern have made the knockout stage of the CL on each occasion, but only reached the final once , losing at the SF stage four times and R16 or QF on three occasions. Across that time they have played 19 knockout stage games at the Allianz Arena and kept just four clean sheets , conceding 2 or more on 7 occasions and a single goal eight times. I don't think we can call that a small sample size and the likelihood is that Villarreal will score . 

 

They will doubtless set up to frustrate and head coach Unai Emery (pictured) is tactically astute and knows how to plot his way through a European two legged tie, having reached FIVE Europa League finals winning four. It is a tall order to keep the Bavarian giants out for 90 minutes on home soil and he probably knows his side need to score at least one goal to progress. The loss in Spain was Bayern's first competition away defeat since 2017, they got a lot wrong tactically, Coman and Gnabry were on the "wrong" flanks, the midfield was dominated and the two best players in the centre of the park were wearing yellow, there was no press as a team. They were better after the break, but Villa were still closer to extending their lead than Bayern to an equaliser.

 

Bayern head coach Julian Nagelsmann likes to tinker , too much at times and right now it doesn't feel like it is working and I would not rule out the upset, Villarreal have scored 10 goals in their last three CL away starts, which came against Young Boys, Atalanta and Juventus, at least 3 times in each ! Bayern's last seven Bundesliga home games, have seen them give up 20 BC's, only one combined to the two bottom five teams they faced (but one of them should have scored 3 and the other held out for 83 minutes) , but at least 3 in each of the other starts.

 

 

 

Good luck !