Good Luck.

US PGA Tour Money List  (written December 4th, 2014)

This is a season long bet and will not be decided until late September.

Last year we were firmly with Rory McIlroy to win the Race to Dubai, which is the European version of this market and the criteria required in looking for the winner, is largely similar, you have to do well in the big events and will need to win at least two biggies or go close in them and pick up a couple of other events along the way.

Rory also won the US Money List last year with earnings of a shade over $8m (nice work if you can get it !), he also earned $8m in 2012 when he was a four time winner. He is fully capable of doing so again, but in his three other "full" years on Tour he averaged only just over $2m and there are no guarantees that he will be as dominant as last year, he has had issues in the past and whilst signs were good for him going into last season, the ongoing court case with his former management company and break up from Caroline Wozniacki could have affected him, they didn't, but they could have and like many young men, especially those with huge wads of cash, trouble can find Rory and he doesn't have to always go looking for it ! Things happen ! He needs a lot to go right to earn that $8m again.

I also have two concerns, one is the Masters, it is the only major he has not won, it is the most suited to his game and the single title he craves, Augusta will be the real focus for him this year and failure to win, could throw him a little off kilter, as could the court case with Horizon, which is scheduled for February.

He has limitless ability and could easily have another fantastic year, but is one as good as last year likely, given all the baggage, media attention and what lies ahead ? I tend to think not.

I am keen on the chances of Bubba Watson, since his breakthrough year of 2010, he is a seven time winner, including two Masters titles and this is why I like him....he earned circa $3.2m in 2010, $3.47m in 2011, $4.64m in 2012 and $6.3 last year, up each time, the eagle eyed amongst you will have spotted the blip, that was in 2013 when he "only" banked $1.75m and had a poor season by his own high standards, so much was expected of him as a new major winner and it clearly hindered his game.

That was a concern for me this year (2015) with that second Masters won in 2014, but he is a different guy now, more mature, although we do not always see that on course and he has already won , taking the WGC event in Shanghai (which counts as a 2015 event !) and banking $1.4m, so he is effectively one win up on the pack, or at least anyone who matters, but for me it is worth more than the money. It means we are safe to assume that we will not see a repeat of 2013 and we are talking about someone who would "expect" to bank somewhere between $4.6 and $6.4m additionally, which would take him to between $6-$8m, so, even if Rory had a repeat, this is the one golfer who could perhaps still trouble him and remember, he might not need that much and somewhere in the middle ($7m), might well get the job done. However, I can see plenty of scenarios where Bubba could improve, he was second or third four times in addition to his two wins last year and earned nothing at all in the other three majors and underperformed, or missed a couple of events he had done well in previously, having to withdraw from one. He seems sure to play at least 21 events, as he has done in four of the last five seasons and he has the potential to earn $9m, or an additional 7.6 and there are very few golfers we can say that about.

I feel he is a very fair price, at least four points bigger than I made him and we have to bet strongly.

Bubba likes to say he is just a good old country boy, but is quite complex and there will be a few blips along the way and in one or two tournament he will look disinterested, which can be frustrating, but is not really the case and in contention he is very steely and determined . I read a good article about him recently which summed him up thus: " It's kind of like a first-grader's progress report: precocious if unpredictable talent with some impressive accomplishments. Does not play well with others."

Not sure about the last part, but I am fairly confident that if he stays healthy, he will earn a minimum $7m and that will see him in contention for this and at generous odds.