WTA: Miami Open betting tip...................
Mar 20, 2019
WTA: Miami Open
Yesterday my notes included ..............
"Courts here are faster than last week, this is more of a traditional hard court event, speed here WAS about the same as Sydney, at Indian Wells it is more like Roland Garros ! Add in that we were on on the West Coast and in the desert last week and are now 3,600 km away in the East , with a three hour time difference and it is a very big adjustment for anyone who went deep at Indian Wells and has little time to get used to the change. On top of which, this year the event moves from Key Biscayne to the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, home of the Dolphins. They have spent over $500m on the courts/renovations and tried to get the court speed up, with complaints it was too slow in Key Biscayne, never mind Indian Wells, so this is going to be a real step into the unknown. I saw video of Reoger Federer practicing here just hours after losing to Dominic Thiem on Sunday, so he was keen to get some hour hours in, but not everyone has access to a private jet !
We will know more about how this surface plays after R1, but I did see that 13 of the 21 qualifiers yesterday, that played to a finish, went to three sets and there were a number of players who took time to adjust and won after losing the opening set very easily. My thinking is that qualifiers might have a bigger edge than usual in the early rounds and any knowledge of these courts will be a huge advantage. "
Today it will not be as easy to find new "home " players, or those with obvious advantages, but that is true of oddsmakers too, who also have limited data, any way, I have two new matches...........
Yulia Putintseva -Kirsten Flipkens
At the Australian Open I opposed Yulia Putintseva against Belinda Bencic and spoke about her record on this surface versus top 50 opposition..............
Now she meets diminutive Yulia Putintseva who is listed at 1.63m (maybe if she was wearing high heels) and is "feisty" if we are being polite and could start an argument in an empty room, she met another of the same ilk in R1 , beating an ,out of sorts currently, Barbora Strycova. Putintseva is not ranked as highly as Siniakova and Bencic has a good record versus shorter players, 72% win rate against those 1.68m or less, YP has a (just) 35% win rate v top 50 opponents on hard courts and is 1-8 in R2 of fast court (non Roland Garros) slams , with her only win over a wild card opponent ranked circa 160.
Kirsten Flipkens (pictured) is ranked outside the top 50, but only just and has been yo-yoing between 45-56 since last June. She is a former top 20 player and has that kind of ability and range of shot on a going day even at 33yo and, she is 5-1 in R1 in her last six appearances in Miami, yes we are on different courts, but largely positive memories of the city/tournament and some big wins here for her including Kvitova (#8) and she has also taken Sharapova (#7) and Agnieszka Radwanska(#4) to three sets and no reason to feel the new surface will not suit. She is on a run of 8-3 on hardcourts versus players ranked 21+ who are under 1.68m tall. YP is 3-5 in Miami, only one win came in the main draw with three losses v lower ranked opposition. Regardless of how this plays out, is very difficult to make a case for Putintseva being such a strong favourite.
1.75 units Kirsten Flipkens to beat Yulia Putintseva 2.52 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro.
Good Luck.
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