Brazil Serie A: Santos- Cruzeiro (written 09.30 UK time on Sunday)
Cruzeiro have been clubgowi favourites for the best part of 18 months and we won a LOT of money on them last season, I think that the first time we opposed them over this period was on Wednesday this week ahead of their Copa do Brasil final first leg trip to
Atletico Mineiro when I wrote .....
Two legged final with the return leg in Belo Horizonte in two weeks time, by which time Cruzeiro will hope to have secured a second straight league title and maybe that scenario will see them then relax and really go for the domestic double. For now, I suspect that their priority will be that title defence and for them to play tonight with trips to Santos and Gremio in the next seven days firmly in mind and the knowledge that whatever happens this evening, they have the opportunity to turn things around in the return leg. They are three incredibly tough road games to play in a row , Cruzeiro are short of their best form and you can make a case for this being the least important of the three. Cruz have named a strong squad, but with 21 players in the group that leaves plenty of room to manoeuvre and central defender Dedé is injured and Marquinhos and Breno Lopes cup tied, which weakens them a little and they have conceded seven goals in their three away starts in the competition and if they score tonight and concede two, maybe even three, I do not feel they will be overly worried. Atletico have (incredibly) done the double over Cruzeiro this season, with both games going "over" and odds for a repeat look generous.
Hosts have won their last two starts scoring six goals and whilst they would like to hold on to their current third place, I do not feel they will lose too much sleep over a visit from Figueirense at the weekend and for me, this week will be all about tonight's game.Atletico seem really pumped for this and you can feel the excitement and anticipation leaping off the page in interview with the players in build up.
They did rotate a little, but still went with a strong starting eleven, however, they lost 2-0 and it seems obvious that right now is the most vulnerable they have been at any time over the last two seasons and surely they are desperate to get this title defence done and dusted as soon as possible. They did receive a boost on Wednesday anyway, with Sao Paulo's failure to beat Internacional and that means that eight points, or nine if SP go on a massive goal rush, from five remaining starts will see them crowned champion again. They would obviously like to get three of those tonight and I feel sure that we will see a very committed performance from the visitors. Two road wins in the next four days will mean they could secure the title in front of their own fans next weekend and ahead of the second leg with Atletico.
The visitors get Marquinhos and Breno Lopes back today, but Dedé (pictured) is still sidelined and left back Egido and right back Mayke are also missing , so, whilst offensively they look in good shape today, they are without their three best (IMO) defenders (the trio have averaged over 25 starts between them this season) and are already conceding far too freely.
The two clubs played here in Santos just 11 days ago, drawing a Copa semi final 3-3 and given the Cruz defensive short comings recently ( six conceded in three and just one clean sheet in seven), another shoot out is far from unlikely. Hosts have very little to play for and are going to change things around, especially defensively and it looks like 19 yo Caju ( just six starts in his career) at left back and two fringe central defenders playing together with Edu Dracena suspended. Surely goals .... 1-3/2-3 something like that.
1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.03 asian line/Sportmarket.
Cruzeiro: Fábio , Elisson, Ceará, Breno Lopes , Samudio,Alex, Bruno Rodrigo , Manoel, Henrique, Lucas Silva, Willian Farias, Nilton, Everton Ribeiro, Júlio Baptista, Marlone , Ricardo Goulart, Dagoberto, Marquinhos, Marcelo Moreno , Willian.
Good Luck.
