Champions League: Atletico Madrid- Real Madrid
We previewed the Copa del Rey meeting between these two three months ago and many of the comments made that day are still relevant ....
The weekend could hardly have gone any better for Atletico, they beat Levante 3-1 with a positive offensive performance, then officially announced the return of favourite son Fernando Torres ( I know, I know) and then sat back and watched both Real and Barce lose, results which blew open the title race, with the big three now only separated by a single point. Torres is not viewed in Spain and especially this side of Madrid, in the same way as regular watchers of the EPL see him and he will not be under the same kind of pressure to deliver, at least not immediately and things are so much easier when supporters already love you and adore him they do. 45,000 ( I kid you not) turned up at the Vicente Calderon Stadium on Sunday to welcome him home, watch him juggle the ball in the centre circle and kick a few balls into the crowd. There was no league fixture, as Atletico played on Saturday ( which means they have not had to travel and have had 24 hours longer recovery time), so Torres will be in no doubt about the affection with which he is held in and I would not be totally surprised if we saw the old FT return over the coming months.
Atletico have made a habit of stepping up in the big games and Diego Simeone will have them fired up for this. My view about the hosts long term prospects in this competition is pretty much unchanged from last season, in that, IMO , they simply do not need the Copa, they are heavily involved in the title race and the Champions League and could do without additional fixtures. Barcelona will almost certainly await the winner and four extra games against the big two inside 22 days and they also go to Barcelona for a La Liga fixture on Sunday, will surely take a toll somewhere down the line. However, convincing Simeone to change his mind and intensity, is a little like getting a politician to agree with the opposition in the build up to an election, it ain't gonna happen ! This is a man who has probably never taken a backward step in his life and he will be 100% committed to this game and his squad dare not do otherwise. Mario Mandzukic and Antoine Griezmann are finally starting to click and the midfield never give you one moments peace, are a mirror image of the coach and have bossed most of the recent games between the two clubs. Atletico are unbeaten in two Super Cup games and a trip to the Bernabeu this season, posting two wins, with Griezmann (off the bench) and Juanfran both causing problems with the space Real leave out wide and the (still) largely underrated Koke, hugely influential in all three games. Real have the game changers and if they have a going day there is not really too much opponents can do, but I feel the hosts have a big edge in midfield and do not see them losing this evening.
The loss to Valencia on Sunday, ended a run of 22 straight competitive wins for Real, but after their World Club Cup commitments, did they really need to shoehorn in a friendly against Milan in Dubai over New Year, when most other La Liga players were spending a few days with their families ? They were harassed and out worked by Valencia at the Mestalla and are going to face a similar , but better challenge this evening. I suspect both would be reasonably happy with a draw, although Simeone would never admit that and I see that as the most likely outcome, but feel we are better served by taking the hosts with the handicap start. Return is at the Bernabeu next midweek btw.
Atletico have not trailed at the break in the last five h2h meetings ( leading in three) and Real have won "only" 45% of La Liga matches (18 of 40) over the last three seasons, when they have not been ahead at the break, so the trick, easier said than done, is to stick with them early, but Atletico are ideally equipped for that.
Atletico won that 2-0 , they progressed to the semis with a 2-2 draw in the return leg and won 4-0 at home in the league meeting. However, in terms of La Liga and the top three, they have fallen off the pace and it is more a case now of battling with Valencia and Sevilla for 3rd and 4th, with the trio seperated by just four points. It is on the road that they have let points drop, drawing games like recent trips to Espanol and Malaga that the big two would have found a way to win, on home soil they are as difficult to beat as ever and despite Real scoring freely once again (14 goals) in winning their last three starts (only facing minnows), they have not beaten Atletico inside 90 minutes in eight h2h meetings, they are not the force of last season and do not have the fear factor on their side in this match up, with Simeone and his troops unafraid simply of the name Real Madrid. Having said that, Real come into this match in better shape mentally and physically than for recent meetings, but we have still to see how much that matters in the white hot atmosphere on the Vicente Calderon this evening and if this time they will fight back if and when things do not go their way.
Ignore what you might have read elsewhere, the hosts will be at full strength for today, the treatment room has cleared, no one was ever in real danger of sitting this match out and Simeone has been able to name his preferred squad for the first time in eleven outings, actually since the two last met in early February. That is a very positive mental boost and we know that Simeone will have himself pumped, the stadium jumping and supporters fired up and most importantly, the players bouncing off the dressing room walls for this one, it is the real chance of revenge for the cruel defeat in Lisbon last May. Despite the star names, I still feel the hosts have the edge in midfield (see above) and cannot agree with Real being favoured with the draw no bet option.
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Good luck.
