Championship betting preview: Ipswich Town- Middlesbrough
Dec 20, 2014
Championship: Ipswich Town- Middlesbrough
I am very pleased with our long term bet on Middlesbrough and my pre season notes and September update are both reproduced at the foot of the email in full. They currently sit joint top with Bournemouth , having beaten then leaders Derby County very comfortably last weekend and if they can follow up today against third placed Ipswich Town, it will firmly cement them as promotion favourite. Personally, I have no doubt that Boro and County are the two strongest squads in the second tier and will be surprised if either finish outside the top say four teams and feel both, will probably open up a gap over the pack at some stage in the New Year. Of course, I am hoping for the dream result and that Boro win the title and Brentford take second place, but could live with the Bees being promoted via the playoffs.
Town are themselves on fire right now and have lost just once in 17 starts, they are not a team who have featured heavily in my previews this season, but we did speak about their size and how they were starting games slowly, ending strongly, ahead of a game with Brighton back in September, when I had just seen the Seagulls at Griffin Park.... I spoke of them (Brighton) as a team in transition at the weekend and that is what they looked like, a couple of their defenders were on their last legs late in the game (Gordon Greer was panting like an old dog) and defensively they were not a huge team and looked vunerable aerially at set pieces and from crosses and apart from their central defenders Brentford are a very small team. I know little about Town, but I have heard two opposing players refer to them as "very physical" and the "biggest team I have ever played against", ten of the 14 who played against Millwall at the weekend are listed as at least 1.83 m + and my Lions supporting friend said they were HUGE and after starting slowly, got stronger the longer the game went, comments which were borne out by visiting manager Ian Holloway. That was only their second win of the season, but reports of Millwall have been good and Town had previously earned a fine 1-1 draw at Derby County, where they again improved greatly after the break and it was a similar story in the East Anglia derby prior to that, in both they posed a big aerial threat.
They have conceded in the opening 20-25 minutes in the two games they have lost and if they can get through this period unscathed they can cause Brighton a lot of problems
.That played out perfectly with Town scoring twice late to win 2-0 and it has been pretty much the Tractor Boys modus operandi that they start a little slowly, Boro have scored 62.5% of road goals before the break and I feel there is a good chance that they will take control of this early and they are 9-0-0 when leading at the break. I do not have a problem with Town as a "contender" and will get a good look at them over the next seven days, so will know more then, but for now, have my doubts, you can only beat what has been put in front of you, but six of their ten wins have come against the bottom six and average league placing of the teams they have beaten is 17.1 and I need to see a really commanding , as opposed to battling, performance against a top team . We are not going to get prices about Boro much in the first half of 2015 and we have to take them while they are on offer.
1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.25 ball 2.23 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
Middlesbrough Update ( written September 5th)
Boro have been a little disappointing on the pitch, just six points on board, but it should really be 12 and I have taken a positive slant on this, as it has enabled me to be able to bet a little more at the advised 21.0 and 3.75 which is still on offer.
Off the pitch, they have played like champions and last week added Patrick Bamford, Belgium international striker Jelle Vossen, Chelsea goalkeeper Jamal Blackman and winger Yanic Wildschut, 22 a Netherlands Under-21international. The week before Ryan Fredricks joined from Tottenham, all the other signings have been discussed many times, they are a work in progress, but Aitor Karanka got every single player he targeted and was backed to the hilt by owner Steve Gibson and they are 100% set on promotion. If they had 12 points in the bag and made these signings, people would be falling over themselves to back them at 9.0. Six points is nothing over 41 games and I would prefer the bigger odds and feel they still offer very good value.
Championship Outright: (written July 29th)
For my main outright bet I am going to be a little more adventurous and suggest Middlesbrough.
They have been on my radar for some time and I think now is the right time to push the button. Last season they finished 12th, eight points adrift of a playoff spot and I expect them to finish a lot closer this time round. Aitor Karanka replaced Tony Mowbray as coach in mid November and it was always going to take time for him to get his ideas across and a full pre season working with the squad, before we would see the benefit of his vast experience at the top Spanish clubs. He was previously assistant manager at Real Madrid under Jose Mourinho, no one who has held that role before, has come out a worse coach and Karanka has done his new club no harm in steadfastly defending Mourinho's reign at Madrid and openly speaking out in favour of his former boss. This loyalty has already been rewarded and I understand that Karanka has pretty much first option on any Chelsea youngsters going out on loan and central defender Kenneth Omeruo who was on loan at Boro last season, has rejoined on a one year deal from the Blues, after impressing with his four starts for Nigeria at the World Cup and I understand one or two more might make the move up from London.
Karanka has also signed left back James Husband from Doncaster Rovers and also used his contacts in Spain to snap up keeper Tomas Mejias from Real Madrid and prolific striker Kike from Murcia for a big fee (circa £3m+). Lee Tomlin and Albert Adomah are two very gifted players, who long term readers will know I rate quite highly , they joined Boro last season and both should be even more productive this time round.Likewise, centre back Daniel Ayala , who like Tomlin, joined in the last transfer window. It is amazing that George Friend has never been picked up by a top flight club and he is a very classy left back and with Husband as cover, they are very well looked after in this key position.
Adan Reach is just 20 and an England U20 international of almost limitless potential and he and Friend were picked out by a good judge I know, who saw Boro last week in pre season, as "certain to play in the top flight". Reach is one of several who have come up from the well respected Academy at Boro which has produced players like Adam Johnson and Stewart Downing in recent years.
Genk striker Jelle Vossen has long been touted as on the move to Boro and it looks like that deal might still be possible and is being much discussed today, although funds are tight at the club, they will find the money for the right player and are keen to really make a big push this season. I understand that two more deals will "definitely" be done before the season starts, including another Chelsea player and this is starting to look like a squad with plenty of potential.
Like the coach, there are a number of players who should improve in the second season and Kike could really be the 20 goal striker they have been looking for and he could make the same sort of impact as Michu in his first season at Swansea. All the Boro supporters who went to Rochdale last week have been raving over him and already believe he is the real deal, you can see a montage of some of his goals on this youtube clip.
Not much improvement needed to make a top six push and they could be much better than that.
1.75 units Middlesbrough to win outright 17.0-21.0 general quote .
1.75 units Middlesbrough to finish top 6 @ 3.50-3.75 general quote.
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