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Championship: Watford- Burnley

I expect to see a very motivated and relieved home side take to the field at Vicarage Road this afternoon, motivated because three points will take them back up into the automatic promotion spot, at least for 24 hours and relieved because consecutive defeats, in matches they should probably have taken four points from, hasn't come at a greater cost. Their nearest challengers Hull City, Crystal Palace and Leicester City all failed to take full advantage and the only team charging at present are email favourites Nottingham Forest, who have done us several big favours in recent weeks. Key striker Matej Vydra (33-20-8) has had a huge week, being voted npower Championship player of the season and scoring twice for the Czech Republic against Armenia and he will be keen to match himself against another second tier hotshot, in 23 goal Clarets striker, Charlie Austin.

Burnley are ten points off the playoff places now and are actually closer to the drop zone and they might well be just a little more focused on their two home games next week, having not won in front of their own supporters in five starts, all the talk this week at Turf Moor has been about that poor run at home and the match with Forest on Monday, clearly appears to be their biggest game of the holiday weekend. Goals have certainly dried up for them with just four in their last eight and it is easy to see why, 16 of Austin's goals came before the first week in November, the only other player to have had more than 19 attempts on target this season is Martin Paterson and he has not scored since that same first week in November. There is just not a lot of offensive threat from elsewhere and the attacking play is too one dimensional, with everything targeted towards the pair, especially Austin. They had a handful of players away on international duty in midweek and the mood among st these was hardly helped by universally poor results, best of which was a 0-0 draw for Fulham loanee Alexander Kacaniklic with Sweden.

Watford were starting to look a little weary and the 13 day break was perfect, especially for some of the large Italian contingent for whom the Championship schedule was taking a toll, Marco Cassetti spoke about this earlier in the week saying, "the international break has provided a welcome opportunity to regroup and prepare for the final eight games , it's perfect, good timing for recovery, energy, to prepare for the next match in the best way." Nyron Nosworthy returned from international duty with what looks a season ending injury, but he would probably not have started today in any case and the hosts have options, it is also possible that coach Gianfranco Zola might bring in someone today ( Thursday) as cover.They will have Almen Abdi (31-10-8) in midfield, he has nine goals or assists in his last 12 starts and his energy was missed at Barnsley, keeper Manuel Almunia might also return, after missing the last four starts ( no cleansheets) and if both started, it would be a huge boost. I strongly feel that the break has been of more use to Watford, they have good bouncebackability following defeats, despite that slip up at Barnsley and the mood in the home camp is far more upbeat. 1.5 units Watford -0.5 ball 2.03 asian line/ Ibramarket.  Of course, many of us are on Watford at big prices 11.0-15.0 for promotion and if that is the case, you might want to skip this, or scale down your bet.

Watford have scored a high 34% of all their goals between the 60th-75th minute, they have conceded 54% if the final 30 minutes and with Burnley also shipping 50% of all their goals in the final third of games, we could see plenty of late action.