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Below you can see yesterday's subscriber newsletter in full, that is an average day's output at this time of year, results do not really matter, it is only reproduced as a sample of what the service provides. Everyday we are reviewing sporting events, often (not always) in great detail and looking for things that are over priced and by doing so, LONG TERM, we end up here.

We have losing periods as you can see by the blips on the graph, but it still always edges upwards and long term profit, in addition to quality content, can make you a lot of money across 1,400-1,500 matches/events, which is what we will cover this year.

For what it is worth, which in the bigger picture is not a lot, in terms of the four "official" bets, Kohlschreiber and Murray are tied at 7-7 in the fifth set, Errani is now trading at 7-8 points less, Toronto won 3-2 and San Jose 2-1.

I have 5-6 previews planned for today, there were two in the early newsletter which has just been sent and 3-4 (still debating one) for the lunchtime follow up.

Good Luck.

Saturday May 31st

French Open Tennis:

Philipp Kohlschreiber- Andy Murray
 

I do not see an awful lot between these two on clay. I am a little surprised that Murray's results on the surface have not been better as he played a lot of claycourt tennis as a youngster . However, it is clearly his weak link and the German player has posted half as many wins again as the British number one on clay over the last five seasons. They have met just once on dirt with Kohlschreiber winning 2&1 in Monte Carlo, but that was back in 2010.
 
The German player proved his well being by winning Dusseldorf last time out and took Novak Djokovic to a deciding set in Rome in his previous start, so is clearly very near the top his game. It was also the world number 2 ranked Serbian who ended Kohlschreiber's run here last year in four longish sets (39 games).
 
Murray missed Roland Garros last year and then won Queens and Wimbledon, surely that will not have gone unnoticed and I wonder how committed deep down he is to the French Open, an event he is extremely unlikely to win, but where a deep run might come at a cost somewhere down the line in tournaments where he clearly has a much better chance of winning.
 
Hard not to see this being close, the games "over" looks and an "upset" win, which I marginally prefer, looks very possible.

 

1 unit Philipp Kohlschreiber to beat Andy Murray 3.00-3.25 general quote
 
 
Women's Singles Outright: Sara Errani
 
Plenty of shocks this year and we might see a few more yet. Maria Sharapova has been made a short priced favourite, but despite here movement on the surface being hugely improved, iI could just never bring myself to back her on clay at low odds, she has not got a gimme against Sam Stosur in R4, or verses Garbine Muguruzu and she will probably have to beat both, just to make the semis.
 
The second quarter looks very competitive ,I would not rule any of the four and IMO Sharapova is vastly underpriced.
 
However, it is the bottom half I want to focus on, Simona Halep has been made a good favourite here, but there is a big question mark about her at the business end of grand slams and Stephens. Kvitova, Kuznetsova and Ivanovic are all proven big stage performers in what again is a very competitive section. I will come back to Halep's game today a little later.
 
That leaves us with the bottom quarter, where I favour Sara Errani to continue her fine form at Roland Garros where she made the final in 2012 and semis in 2013. She had tough runs in both years, few easy matches and will battle to her last breath on court, very similar to Francesca Schiavone. She has no real big weapons in her armoury, but is ultra consistent, runs down everything and will ask question after question of her opponent and eventually, only the best on this surface, have the answer.
 
Losing Li Na from this section was key to Errani, who would also have been delighted to see arch nemesis Serena Williams lose out early, even though she was in the top half of the draw. Williams the younger beat her in the semis last year and in the final in Rome two weeks ago and just knowing that she will not be waiting again, will have given the diminutive Italian a massive boost. I expect her to see off Julia Glushko comfortably today and she will then probably meet Jelena Jankovic whom she beat comfortably (16 break points) in straight sets in Rome earlier this month. The bottom section looks the weakest of all and my only real concern would be with Andrea Petkovic, but Errani beat her 7-5 6-1 in Madrid just last month and the conditions there (altitude) favoured the German girl more there than they do at RG.
 
I feel the Italian offers really good value ......1.5 units Sara Errani to win outright 17.0 general quote , there is some 21.0 on Betfair for about 400 euros as I type........... if you are quick, likewise with the 19.28 at Pinnacle Sports.
 
I feel there is a lot of pressure now on Simona Halep, who is expected to make the semis at least , something she has never done in a slam previously, she faces another "hungry" youngster today, but one who has gone under the radar. Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor has had a decidely average 18 months or so. but showed a return to form by winning in Marrakech last month and loves clay. In 2012 she won seven Challenger events on the surface, five within a seven week period, which was an incredible run, the transition to WTA events has proved tough, but she is worth keeping an eye on now that she has that main tour breakthrough win. She is circa 3.55 to take a set which is interesting and gets a 6.5 handicap start, or you can take the "over" 17.5 games at 1.90 +, which for a player who plays almost exclusively on the surface, is still improving and who has almost 100 clay court wins to her name, albeit most on the Challenger tour , over the last four years,  all seem too big. I will leave one to you.
 
MLS Toronto FC- Columbus Crew
 

Toronto FC played Montreal Impact in midweek, in the first leg of the Voyageurs Cup final, but rested 5-6 first teamers and the visit from Crew was clearly given priority, or at least they were "managing" their squad, with five starts inside 14 days (this is #3) leading up to the three week break. They are without Michael Bradley and Julio Cesar who are on international duty and Steven Caldwell who is suspended, but have a little depth in the squad now after the summer investment and it is a sign of how far they have come that Dwayne de Rosario, MLS MVP two seasons back, who returned to his home Province to join TFC, is struggling to command a starting position. He did feature and started in the 2-0 win in the reverse fixture in Ohio which came without both star forward Jermain Defoe and the aforementioned Caldwell who was also missing that day too. DDR seems sure to play tonight after getting game time in midweek and Defoe and strike partner Gilberto will pose a big threat to Crew. The Brazilian is desperate to get off the mark and is without a goal eight games into his MLS career, he had 14 in just 24 starts for a struggling and ultimately relegated Portuguesa in the much stronger Serie A last season, a goal every 138 minutes. He has been close several times for TFC and once the first comes, the floodgates will probably open, but the pressure is on as the 12th highest paid player in the league and he needs it sooner rather than later.

The hosts feel they have only just started to gel as a team and that they will continue to get stronger, they will move into the playoff spots with a win this evening and having broken their duck against Crew last season with a 2-1 win here, their first in nine h2h starts as hosts and following up in Columbus earlier this season, they fancy their chances of the hat-trick, infact, someone in the back office went close to guaranteeing it ! Their cause will certainly be helped tonight by Crew being without defenders Waylon Francis and Giancarlo Gonzalez, who are away with Costa Rica and the massive loss to suspension of Federico Higuain ( 22 goals in 52 starts.... 6 in 12 this year) the Argentine is many peoples idea of the most influential player in the MLS and Crew have been faced with answering the question all week about how it will be possible to win in his absence.........it will be very tough. With the visitors weakened both offensively and defensively, this is a good opportunity for TFC and I favour them to edge it.

1.5 units Toronto FC -0.5 ball 2.03 asian line/Ibramarket.

MLS:FC Dallas- San Jose Earthquakes

Dallas will take heart from a 0-0 draw with Real Salt Lake in midweek, ahead of which my preview went a lot like this ...

We have opposed FCD twice in the last week, before the 2-1 midweek loss in LA to Galaxy I wrote ....

Dallas have not won in over a month and are coming from a 1-1 home draw with Chivas USA ahead of which I wrote ....

FCD have a couple of key absences tonight , with right back Kellyn Acosta (4-1-0 when he plays, 1-0-5 when sidelined) , defensive midfielder Hendry Thomas ( 9-0-1) and midfielder Mauro Díaz (8-3-3.........0-0-3 without him) all missing, the trio played in the earlier meeting here this season, which the hosts won 3-1,with all four goals coming in the final 19 minutes.  You can see highlights of that game here, Chivas were guilty of some very naive defending , I would expect them to have improved a little in that department and they will not have to face the killer balls from Diaz, who was provider for two of the goals. The visitors will surely have learned a lot from that and hopefully will not so many many free kicks away around the box ( two goals came from dead balls). Chivas did pose a threat especially down Acosta's flank and they can further expose his absence this evening.

The visitors ended an eight game streak without a win in a 3-1 win in Colorado last week, they have not conceded more than a single goal on the road in four away starts since the loss to Dallas and showed some non Erick Torres (10-8-2) potency up front for the first time this season. With new signing Marvin Chavez scoring twice on his debut and against a former club, he faces another tonight and will not lack in motivation and he and Torres are a very lively pairing, especially dangerous on the break, with Chavez incredibly speedy.

 

Chivas have avoided defeat here in six of nine visits and with Dallas having failed to keep a clean sheet all seaon, weakend defensively and missing their playmaker and Chivas having increased offensive options, they have a good chance of adding to that record and possibly registering a second straight road win and at 5.0 + are a decent price to do so.

The visitors were close to that big odds win, taking the lead around the hour mark, before FCD equalised 7 minutes from time. Tonight they are again without Acosta, Thomas and Diaz (see all three above), three big losses which more than offset the missing dup for LA and I favour the hosts to record their third straight home win over Dallas.
 

The scheduler has not been kind to Dallas, three tough matches inside 7 days without several key players (see above), this will actually be their sixth start in 21 days, with four of the last five on the road. Tonight they travel not just without the same three players, but also minus left back Michel who is their free kick specialist and has already got five goals this season.

 

They would have settled for the point, but it extended their run without a win to seven games and it has been a gruelling recent schedule. Tonight they will be without Acosta, Diaz and Thomas (see all above) again, Michel and Andrew Jacobson will both be subject to last minute decisions by coach Oscar Pereja, who is a lifetime 0-1-6 against Earthquakes, which included a 2-1 defeat in San Jose just 20 days ago. The loss there was particularly disappointing as SJE played 50 minutes + with ten men.

Earthquakes opener there came from an assist from defender Clarence Goodson who was cut from the US squad in midweek, which means he is available tonight, he was fuming at Jurgen Klinsmann at the decision and will surely be extra motivated this evening. The visitors are without Chris Wondolowski (USA) and Victor Bernardez (Honduras) on international duty, but saw off Houston 3-0 in midweek without the pair and Goodson too. They were boosted by the return of the influential Steven Lenhart , who had not played in two months and also Yannick Djalo who had missed four weeks, SJ played with great energy, especially after the break , suddenly have  a few more options and can get a result against a favourite and strugggling opponent.

1.5 units San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/ibramarket.

 

Good Luck.

 

 
 

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