English Premier League betting preview: Southampton v Aston Villa

 Despite going two down early, Villa did us a favour in their last away start, a 2-2 draw with local rivals WBA, ahead of which I wrote ....

"Two local rivals, both on 14 points, a draw would see the pair in a tie with Swansea City for 10th place and I suspect that each will have avoiding defeat as a priority. Villa arrive here having collected 53% (34/64) of all their points in 2013 on the road and it is easy to see why, the level of expectation at Villa Park is huge and supporters put a lot of pressure on the Villans and being able to sit back and hit teams on the break, plays to all their strengths. The visitors are very quick to turn defence into attack and in Christian Benteke they have the perfect front man and the small matter of his 23 goals in 43 EPL starts helps as well ! The 22 yo Belgian is in a very rare dry spell at present, but I think too much has been made of that, he scored four in his opening four starts before picking up a groin injury and only played 30 minutes against Tottenham, before starting against (before the weekend) defensively very sound Everton, he could have had a couple against the Hammers ( denied by the woodwork when looking sure to score) and he looked lively enough against Cardiff City before the international break in a 2-0 win, I do not think there is too much wrong with his form and I expect him to go on a bit of a run soon. 

What would really have pleased boss Paul Lambert in that win, was the cleansheet, the first at home in 16 starts and contribution from Leandro Bacuna and Libor Kozak, who both scored, Bacuna scored his second of the season a beautiful free kick and the Dutchman is deadly from anything within 30 yards of goal. Kozak scored his second goal since arriving from Lazio with a fine header and he and Benteke, who has had ten headed attempts on goal this season, give the visitors a big aerial threat and with Bacuna so dangerous off the ground, any dead ball situations in their half, are going to a problem for Albion.

The hosts have scored only once all season inside the opening 40 minutes and those are interesting stats with Villa very solid once they get past the opening exchanges, they have conceded only three times away from Villa Park this season, but two have come inside the first ten minutes, just one between the 11th and 90th minute. There is a good opportunity here for Villa to play themselves into this and once comfortable, they are very hard to breakdown."

The early goals were a concern and now four of just five goals conceded on the road, have come inside 11 minutes, but once past that period they look very solid and as detailed above, they are ideally suited to playing on the road, when they can turn defence into attack in a hearbeat.
 
There was no shame, apart from Artur Boruc tring to do a Cruyff turn, in defeats at Arsenal and Chelsea, but they have put some pressure on the hosts to get a result and they will miss their accident prone keeper, who broke his hand at Stamford Bridge and several other players including key defensive midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin (13-1-0). Paulo Gazzaniga, with just 33 minutes of Premier League action (two goals conceded) in the last 12 months, will play in goal, Schneiderlin has missed two full and two "half" games in the last two seasons through which Saints are 0-0-4, including a home defeat to Sunderland.
 
A couple of the huglely talented youngsters in the home squad are starting to look in need of a bit of a rest, but for the time being, they do not have the options for that and it could be a very young bench and limited alternatives for Saints. Villa and the draw are too big, they just need to get over that opening 10-11 minutes .
 
1.5 units Aston Villa +0.75 ball 1.96 asian line/Ibramarket
 
 
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