J-League betting preview: Gamba Osaka - Tokushima Vortis
May 05, 2014
I was pretty pleased with my early season assessment of Vortis ....
I usually ignore newly promoted J-League teams for a month or so, but I am happy to oppose newcomers Tokushima today, they made it into the top flight after finishing 4th in J-L2 and were 20 points behind leaders Gamba Osaka and five teams ( down to 9th) finished within a win ( 3 points) of Vortis. They also lost eight times at home last season and the only team to be promoted with a similar record in recent seasons was Oita Trinita in 2012 and their top flight campaign ended in tears ( 2-8-24), with relegation almost assured with three months left to play and to be honest, I fear similarly for Vortis.
There is/was always the chance that they would hit the ground running, but they opened up with a trip to Sagan Tosu last week, who had struggled badly themselves last year (14th) and had only earned promotion in 2011 and who had not really strengthened in the off season and lost 5-0. I could go for one of my favourite lines and say they were lucky to score nil, but they did hold out for 36 minutes, unfortunately, four came inside 14 minutes and I suspect we will see plenty of that from them, first goal and then the floodgates will open, in what is their first ever season in J-L1.
Of course they will be "up" for this today on their home debut, but Cerezo are a game further ahead in terms of preparation and after losing at home to Hiroshima last week (brief notes reproduced below) they will be desperate to post a win ahead of their midweek AFC Champions League fixture. They got 81 minutes out of Diego Forlan last week and he fired five attempts on goal and should relish the far weaker opponent today. Rising star and Japanese international midfielder Yoichiro Kakitani (34-21-4 last season), spent three years at Tokushima as a teenager and so will feel very comfortable in the surroundings and will want to show that Forlan is not the only show in town this weekend.
They lost that 2-0 and are now 1-0-10 with a 3-29 goal difference and already six points adrift of both safety and today's opponent. Gamba are a big club in Japan and have finished top 3 in seven of the last ten seasons, they suffered a humiliating relegation in 2012, but came staright back up as champions and do not expect to be battling relegation this time round. They have two tough looking road games up next and will be very focused on collecting maximum points today, they should do so and the only debate is whether it will be by a single goal or two or more. Gamba did the double over Tokushima last season with a 7-1 goal difference and are stronger this time round. The visitors ten defeats have come by an average of 2.7 goals and I have to side with the bigger margin of victory, the goals have not flowed for Gamba yet, but they have been creating chances and young striker Takashi Usami ( 19 goals in 18 appearances last season) should finally be ready to play more of a role after two appearances off the bench following injury. They also have a recognised right back in the team now, with the return of Jae-Suk Oh . Usami scored four on the road to Vortis last season and will be busting a gut to start.
1.5 units Gamba Osaka -1.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
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