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The hosts have scored 85% of home goals in the final hour of games and 55% in the last 30 minutes. I would prefer to wait for a "quarter ball swing" in odds and suggest betting 1.25 units Arsenal -0.5 ball as soon as the "in running" lines reach 2.10, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
League 1: Swindon Town - MK Dons
These two are "guaranteed" at least a playoff spot , they sit 7 and 8 points respectively behind second placed Preston North End with again, respectively, two and one games in hand. Dons have the better schedule, Town and North End have to play each other and also leaders Bristol City and there is obviously a good chance for the winner today to put pressure on that automatic promotion place. They are "free wheeling" to do so, in that they have nothing to lose and I feel we are very likely to see goals this afternoon. I slightly favour the visitors, who are the better footballing team, they won the reverse fixture 2-1, have refound some form after their usual near end of season blip and scored seven goals in winning their last two and they have scored in 13 straight road games. They get Dele Alli back today (possibly from the bench), the 18 yo has been the worst kept secret in League 1 for several years, but his 14 goals in 36 games from midfield this season , forced Tottenham Hotspur into paying big money for the teenager, who was then loaned back to Dons, he has missed six weeks with injury. With Town likely to debut a defender who have not played in five months, this looks a decent opportunity for the visitors to get amongst the goals. I will suggest 1.5 units MK Dons to score over 1.5 goals 2.50-2.625 general quote, this match is being televised, so additionally, some companies will trade this market in running. Town have conceded two or more in 8 of their last 20 home starts (40%) and even that implies these odds are too big, given that Dons are better than almost all of those previous opponents, pose more offensive threat and that the draw is of very limited use to either team.
If we look first at the match at the Emirates, I managed to bet the "over" goal line @ 2.14 before the first goal was scored. With all four Arsenal goals coming in that last hour which we highlighted and incredibly, we also picked up on late goals in this fixture at the end of both halves and there was one in each, coming in the 45th+ and 90th+ minutes respectively, which threw up MASSIVELY priced possibilities.
MK Dons won 3-0 and that line and the away win, in a game where we spoke of a draw not suiting either, traded at very big odds in running.
Both games were televised and all markets were traded and very easy to bet "in running".
There were losing bets on Saturday too of course, these are only meant as samples and to outline the potential of the newsletter as a betting aid. There are likely to be 2,000-2,500 previews on the subscription service this year, that means huge choice for "members" of clubgowi and at rates which allows subscribers to be selective.
Let's look at a couple more previews from the holiday weekend, this time from Monday ........
Hosts are suffering financially, players and staff have had salary payments delayed several times this season and all refused to speak to the media recently as a protest. They have now been paid up to date and a wealthy husband and wife who support the club have agreed to bankroll salaries until the end of the season, which at least provides employees with a little stability, but this is a club which is going to have to go backwards , before it can progress. Costs are being cut in every area possible and manager Gary Whild, or whomever is in charge next season, will be operating with a greatly reduced budget probably less than a third of what Eastleigh had last season in the Conference South, the level below National. As you can imagine, the mood at the club is a little subdued and this has manifested itself with their on the pitch performances. Hanging around the playoff fringes (as usual) just before Christmas, Kiddy are 2-3-6 since Boxing Day and the goals have dried up, failing to score in 5 of six (0-3-3) and managing just two goals in nine outings.
Another huge match in terms of our long term Championship positions and a good opportunity for the Bees, like Boro, to steal an advantage on teams around them in the table with the other six of the top eight clubs meeting each other today. Brentford make the short trip to Fulham for what is a big West London derby game, this match has been hyped up on the forums for weeks. You always wonder if the players realise how big a deal games like this are, but after a really white hot atmosphere at Griffin Park in the reverse fixture, very few are now in any doubt, Bees players have been mentioning it in interview for weeks and supporters have been reminding them at every possible opportunity. Boss Mark Warburton spoke today (Thursday) about this and said that everyone was pumped at the club and aware of what this game means.
The Bees dominated the reverse fixture, but needed a late goal from Jota to seal all three points, if both teams perform to a similar level on Friday, there can be only one winner. The club has been boosted by a whole host of players being called up by their nation, at respective age level , seven were away in total , but all have reported back fit and hungry for more success, this is big for a club like Brentford, a further indication of how far they have come, what they can achieve and a motivating factor for those left behnd. I understand that the training session today was absolutely jumping and everyone is desperate to play in front of a MASSIVE travelling support. I feel Fulham have slipped up in this regard and the Bees have been allocated and have sold 6,200 tickets for this game, which is going to be one of the three biggest away followings in the Championship this season, it is a short journey yes, but not many supporters live in Brentford and it is huge, especially considering the size of the club, I have heard of many supporters flying back from USA, Singapore, Australia etc just for this game and the atmoshere will be electric.
Confirmed team news is a little hard to get for the hosts, who have one or two with knocks, but they will be without suspended central defender Shaun Hutchinson and they have conceded 1.875 goals without him ( 30 in 16) and this will be the first start he has missed in four months. The visitors are at full strength, but have made a habit of conceding, being without a cleansheet in six, but they have averaged 2.12 goals over their last eight starts and with Fulham having conceded eight in their last two home starts, there are surely goals in this for the Bees . 1 unit Brentford to win(-0.5) a vital game for them at an average quote of 2.30-2.40 and if you can find it 1.5 units Brentford to score over 1.5 goals 2.0-2.10 general quote.
Brentford will almost certainly have to claim three points to stay in the top six, Forest have little to gain by playing for a point and like the Bees, score a lot of late goals with 36 of 63 (57%) coming in the final 30 minutes, that rises to over 71% on the road (20 of 28) and only Bournemouth have scored more away goals in the last third of games. Easy to make a case for late action today and as an "in running" suggestion, I would advise 1.5 units "over" at the first asian line quote above 2.0 as we approach the 60 minute mark, as always, only if we are playing 11 v 11.
Rovers won 3-0 and it could have been even more emphatic, an experienced , inform, better rested team, battling for the title, facing a team with huge financial issues, nothing to play for and with a squad very short on experience, having to handle a quick turnaround and a "hostile" albeit, home, enviroment. This was made a maximum bet and others clearly disagreed, as odds for the away win were on the increase all though Sunday evening and early Monday morning , but it was hard to understand quite why.
The match at Griffin Park played out (almost) perfectly, I would have much preferred three points for my beloved Bees, but looking at the game solely from a betting angle, it was as good as it gets. The match was 0-0 approaching that 60 minute mark, after which we saw four goals, Forest scoring twice to take a 2-0 lead, before Brentford rallied with two in the last ten minutes. Please take a moment and read the last two paragraphs of the match preview and then remind yourself that that those notes were written five hours BEFORE kick off and not five hours after !
You can read four previews in this post, they will have cost most long term subscribers about 0.26 € each, standard subscriber rates have remained unchanged for two years, they are going to increase quite shaprly in the very near future, but that will not matter to most existing subscribers, as clubgowi members never have to pay full rate to renew, they get a once per year opportunity to add up to 12 months at low, low rates. The "catch" is that you have to pay a standard subscription to get into the "loop" and then you can take advantage of the "offers", a six month subscription taken out now will take you up to the next offer and will also carry with it a small bonus. It will never be cheaper to "join" than it is today and will soon be far more expensive, although still good value. But there is good and there is great value and to get the latter, you have to act fast !
Good luck !
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