MLS: D.C. United  - Colorado Rapids
 

Hosts will be pleased to be back in Washington after losing their last two road starts without scoring. They had previously won three in a row scoring eight, including six in two home starts and they have been strong here all season (7-3-2) and an even more impressive 5-2-0 witha  9-1 goal difference at home to Eastern Conference opponents since the end of March. Three points tonight would go a long way towards confirming their place in the post season, even at this early stage and will keep them in Supporters Shield contention ahead of a very tough looking trip to Eastern leaders Sporting KC next weekend. Actually, four of their next five are on the road and trips to SKC, LA Galaxy, Vancouver and NYRB are about as tough as it gets and we can expect them to be very motivated for the win this evening.
 

I actually previewed the last of those home wins, a 3-0 defeat of Toronto FC at the end of last month, those notes are reproduced at the foot of this email and if you look at the "key stat" at the end of those notes, it is worth noting that two of the goals in that game came in the 60th and 68th minute and if watching /trading this in running, it is clearly around the hour mark that DCU come on strong, especially here at the RFK stadium.
 

Rapids have now conceded 14 goals in their last five road starts and ahead of the last of those, a 3-1 loss to FC Dallas I wrote ...........

First home game in three weeks and they (FCD) will be looking to impress, they have won the last three home h2h meetings with Rapids, the last of which was only two months ago,  just before the mini break for the World Cup, which they edged 3-2, three things about that, FCD were in terrible form at the time, are not as beat up now and they were largely able to stop the supply to Deshorn Brown in that game, he is far and away the Rapids biggest offensive threat with 7 goals, 72 shots, 26 on target, lots of these come from crosses from both flanks, but in the last meeting only 14% were succesful. Colorado have not scored in two and have conceded 11 goals in their last four road starts , 2+ in each and have several key players who look off their early season pace right now.

 

Rapids did score there, their first goal in 281 minutes of MLS action, but it was a late consolation (already 3 down with 4 minutes to play) and came from the penalty spot. when the Rapids player looked to be going nowhere, or nowhere dangerous. Teams seem to have the measure of Colorado now and the frustrated Deshorn Brown (see above) was substituted with almost 30 minutes left to play, they need to change things around a bit, but lack the depth to do so. Shane O'Neill has been sorely missed in central defence for example and any injury has almost always meant the starting eleven being severely weakened.
 

Eddie Johnson is suspended for DCU, but Fabian Espindola is back now ( see below) and the seven goal striker who has been out for two months will strip much fitter after his 40 minutes off the bench at Salt Lake last week and they have very limited options at left back with Chris Korb injured, but they are 3-3-1 without him ( actutally 4-2-0 at home, 11-3 goal difference, when he plays 30 minutes or less), so perhaps not as big a loss as the DCU supporetrs seem to think. I feel odds for the home win are just a little too big.
 

1.25 units DC United -0.5 ball 2.27 asian line/Sportmarket....there is up to 2.36 on Pro as I type.
 

 

We discussed the hosts ahead of their trip to the West Coast to play San Jose Earthquakes recently..... DCU are in much better shape, sitting atop of the Eastern division and buoyed by winning their last two road starts, their first consecutive away wins since 2007. The win at Toronto last time out was noteworthy with their opponent unbeaten in six starts previously and they have the option to be unchanged this evening should they wish. However, they are travelling cross country after a shorter break than San Jose and I see them as vulnerable this evening. They actually won that 2-1, but the match could easily have gone the other way and the following morning I wrote ......DC United goalkeeper Bill Hamid earned man of the match awards a couple of hours ago and with anyone else between the sticks, we might have found that 3-2 home win. San Jose dominated the second period and had 60% possession , 31 crosses (!), 83% passing accuracy and most importantly nine shots on target, of which Hamid saved seven. Earthquakes missed an "open" goal almost as time expired, the rebound was cleared off the line and their misery (and mine/ours) was complete.

 

Despite riding their luck, there was much for United to take from that game, it was a third straight road win and they had scored eight goals across the three fixtures and they were winning the last after a cross country trip and with a quick turnaround. Earthquakes also gave the formline a massive boost with that 5-1 thumping of Chicago Fire (see below) last week. DCU have played just once in the 19 days since, a comfortable 3-1 defeat of Chivas on home soil and should have a big fitness edge this evening, with TFC have played four times over the same sequence. We opposed them at home to Sporting KC in the last of those on Saturday ....
 

That SKC have been able to keep both him and especially Matt Besler ( at least for the rest of this season) was a massive statement of intent and at least one well respected journalist called it "one of the biggest deals (in terms of how the game is perceived), in the history of MLS football."  TFC cannot concede two goals again ( which is very likely) and win this.
 

SKC won 2-1 scoring their winner with only ten men on the pitch, following Matt Besler's dismissal. They now start a four game road trip and heading into that stretch short of defensive options, is going to hurt them and they are going to have to battle to hold on to a top 5 place, before returning home at the end of next month. They are still without Steven Caldwell and Mark Bloom (see both above) and Bloom especially is absolutely key, the situation at the back is compounded with the suspension to central defender Doneil Henry (they have averaged 1.64 points per game in his 11 starts, 1.14 when he is sidelined. Hard to see an already leaky defence, missing three starters stopping a free scoring DCU, who won the reverse fixture just a couple of weeks ago and who are far better rested, out for too long.
 

Hosts are still without star forward Fabian Espindola, but they scored three in his absence last time out and those strikers will want to make the most of their opportunity, with the Argentine forward returning to training this week.

 

1.5 units DC United -0.5 ball 2.01 asian line/Sportmarket .
 

 

Key stat: I want to discuss specific periods of games in more detail this season, I feel that the 15 minutes around the hour mark are definitely worth noting and I will explain why, when we have more time, but DCU are especially strong through this period (7-0 goals scored/conceded between the 61st-75 minute, 5-0 at home) and they scored their winner in the recent meeting through this period and the opener just before it.