Sample clubgowi newsletter and the bigger picture ......

Jun 07, 2014
football betting tips -

Below you can read yesterday's newsletter, it was very quiet for a Friday, just two previews, both won, but that is kind of beside the point (it is just the bonus) of the newsletter, which is to offer quality content previews for sporting events on a daily basis.

Today I have sent subscribers previews of five events, taking a look at the Women's Singles final at Roland Garros and four football matches. I gave a selection in each at average odds of 2.36. I rarely give a selection at odds under 2.0 and never bet personally at less than 1.90.

Anyway, I will post one of these on the website later today, but remember, they are really only meant as samples of the full service, betting the odd selection, when you are only ever seeing 8% of clubgowi output at best, is always likely to be subject to variance and you are too often missing out on the bigger picture.

Subscribers receive an average of 25-30 full match/event previews per week, 52 weeks per year , this is a unique and quality service that is currently underpriced and that can only continue for so long.

Back later.

 

Friday June 6th

Next newsletter will be sent on Saturday @ 10.00 UK time.

International Friendly: Germany- Armenia

 

Germany will be "up" for this, they are desperate to leave for South America with not just a win, but a performance and traditionally, they like to leave for major championships with a few goals under their belts. Coach Joachim Löw will have Philipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger available once more, but Roman Weidenfeller will continue in goal, with Manuel Neuer still not fully fit. They are coming off a 2-2 draw with Cameroon last weekend, when they were far from their best and Löw adnitted several of his players were one or two training sessions short of full fitness. The match is not without interest, firstly as to whether Löw might opt to play with his sole out and out striker in Miroslav Klose , or go with a False #9 formation and secondly, because Armenia are always underestimated.
 
We have done incredibly well with the Armenians over the last two years and last discussed them in depth ahead of their World Cup qualification game with the Czech Republic last September, when I wrote .....
We did well following Armenia at the business end of qualification for Euro 2012, they improved massively once we got into the "must win" stage and offensively played some eye catching football, scoring  22 goals including seven against Slovakia,at the time I wrote ....

I doubt anyone will be as fired up as Armenia, we discussed them and their improved form ahead of their 4-0 win at Slovakia last month and that performance obviously did little to dampen the new found enthusiam surrounding this generation of players. Sixteen of the squad are aged under 26 and they could claim a place in history as the first Armenia group to qualify for the finals of a major tournament. They still have a lot of work to do, but to take things into the weekend and the final group game would be a major achievement in itself and anything else a bonus. They are currently third in the group and have their eyes firmly on the Republic of Ireland whom they trail by a single point and meet in Dublin on Tuesday, the Irish are at tiny Andorra ( 0-0-8) today and will win, so Armenia need to follow suit, as a win will also put some pressure on group leaders Russia who go to Slovakia ( who are not yet out of the equation and need to restore some confidence) later in the day. Three points will take Armenia to the top of the pile, at least for a couple of hours and that is also a huge incentive on it's own. The core of the squad are from Champions Pyunik and they will all be playing in their home stadium today, of the rest, four of each are playing in the much stronger Russian and Ukranian leagues, including all five strikers and Ajax midfielder Aras Ozbiliz has finally brought into the dream and agreed to play for Armenia this week, after previously holding out for a call up from the Netherlands. That is a further sign of how far they have come. Macedonia have only pride to play for and might show more interest in their home start on Tuesday, the two played out a 2-2 draw in Skopje last year, Armenia led twice including very late, before conceding a 96th ( !) minute equaliser. They will surely want to make sure this time, a draw would still give them a chance, but that is a very risky game to play and how would they feel if they drew and Russia lost ? I think they would like to get an early lead, preferably two up and then try to conserve a little energy for the Irish, anyway, I am firmly in the home camp.

They have not really come on since then, but did win 4-0 at Denmark last time out to keep very slim qualification hopes alive, which shows they retain that offensive potential and with an average outfield age of 23.6, which is VERY young in international terms, they very much have time on their hands. Their only hope today is to win and I am sure they will look to take the game to the hosts, who, with a trip to Italy in midweek, also have to look for the three points. I expect this to get very stretched, my main bet is 1.25 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket, but a bet I really like is Armenia to score two or more ( over 1.5 goals) at 5.50-6.0 you can see some of those odds here and other companies will quote this market "in play", I also have to take that for 0.5 unit.
 

They won that 2-1 which was almost perfect, they came up short in qualification, but followed up that win with a defeat of Bulgaria and 2-2 draw in Italy and are strong offensively, not least, but not exclusively, through the wonderful Henrikh Mkhitaryan. They played two wide open friendlies with the UAE and Algeria in Switzerland last week, scoring five goals , but looking very vulnerable defensively from set pieces, especially corners.
 
That could be interesting, Germany scored their first goal via a Müller header and Per Mertesacker headed just over the bar early, I have seen 10.0 for the giant Arsenal central defender to score at any time this evening and that looks decent value in what could develop into a shootout (albeit a fairly one sided one). Mertesacker only has four international goals, but three have come in the last 20 months and 18 or so appearances for the national team and with Armenia struggling to deal with crosses, it is worth a small bet if you can find 8.0 + .
 
I will stick with an easier to play selection and opt for both to score, Armenia are quick on the break and can trouble even the stronger teams offensively, a big win for Germany with the visitors on the scoresheet would proably not upset anyone and odds are very attractive. 1.25 units both to score 2.60-3.0 general quote.....quite a wide price band, if you can get close to the top price, I would suggest betting a little more.
 
 

French Open Tennis: Rafael Nadal- Andy Murray

We sided with Rafa on Wednesday (see below) and after losing the first set, when we saw some very un-Nadal like play, he was pretty flawless through the next three, losing only another five games. He will be mindful that he is second on court today, by which time his final opponent will be in the changing room, with conditions set to be hotter than for anytime this fortnight through late afternoon, there is every reason for him to want to get this done and dusted as quickly as possible. Only Roger Federer at his absolute peak and a very hungry Novak Djokovic last year have taken a set off Nadal at Roland Garros at the semi final stage and Andy Murray is quite a way off that level on this surface.

Court Philippe Chatrier suits Rafa perfectly with so much room to defend and the bounce favouring his heavy top spin. Murray has been taken the distance by Philipp Kohlschreiber and needlessly by a Gael Monfils who was trying his best to throw in the towel in the third set and he must be feeling the effects of a tiring fortnight. The only way that Rafa can retain his #1 ranking is by winning the tournament and will probably know by the time this starts that is a rabidly hungry Novak Djokovic that awaits him. Nole craves this title above all others, it will give him the #1 ranking back, but that is just a bonus, it is the career grand slam he is after and at the moment, it is an all consuming ambition. Nadal will want to go into that in the best physical shape possible.

Murray has hit a lot of unforced errors this week, 50 in a straight set defeat of Fernando Verdasco and with his second serve still looking vulnerable under pressure, I cannot see him overly troubling Rafa today, the first set will doubtless be close, but if the Spanish superstar can edge that, he could run away with the next two.

 
1.25 Nadal to win 3-0 in sets 2.20 Pinnacle Sports, there is 2.18 on Betfair and big liquidity at 2.14, so I would expect that 2.16 + should be available to all through the course of the day, even taking into account commission and other charges.

Good Luck.

 

French Open Tennis (written June 4th)
 
ATP: Rafael Nadal- David Ferrer

 

Rafa had beaten his countryman 17 straight times on clay before losing to him in Monte Carlo this year, Ferrer had won only four sets in the that sequence and will take great heart from finally breaking his duck, but will face a much stiffer task today. In three h2h meetings at Roland Garros, he has never won more that eight games and he will be facing a Rafa hungry for revenge.
 
We discussed Ferrer ahead of his R4 match with Kevin Anderson ....
Very briefly, this is not my type of bet usually in tennis, but this looks an almighty mismatch and I favour David Ferrer to win in double quick time.  The two met at exactly the same stage last year and the Spanish player won 3-1-1 and Anderson was lucky to hold serve five times. The big serving South African "lost" his main weapon, as Ferrer was seeing the ball like a basketball and was all over his opponent's serve like a rash, with Anderson only winning 27% of points on his second serve. Another clinic on how to play on clay is on the cards and you get the feeling that Anderson will have been happy just to protect his ranking points earned at RG last year. The pair have met since last year, on Anderson's favoured hardcourts in Acapulco early this year, officially it went down as a win for the South African, as Ferrer retired injured, but not until after he had won the first set 6-2 and had given his opponent another returning masterclass ( KA won sub 30% on his second serve). Today, it can surely only be a similar outcome and Ferrer will be looking to conserve as much energy as possible for his quarter final meeting with Rafa, so will not want to hand around.
 
The Spanish #2 covered the handicap there for us, but Anderson took a set and we saw more unforced errors than usual from Ferrer and he seemed a little way from his best.
 
The weather today is going to be a factor, the general consensus has always been that Rafa is better in hot and dry conditions, when his heavy top spin is most effective. However, he looked good early last week in cold and damp Paris (that is what is forecast for all of today) and it has been Ferrer who has been looking up at the sky since making the last eight and he said he was fearful the match would be played in damp conditions.
 
People have pointed to Rafa's loss to Robin Soderling here in 2009 in similar conditions as evidence it doesn't suit Nadal, but that had more to do with his knee issues at the time and he took three months off mid season afterwards, including being unable to defend his Wimbledon title, so that was a serious injury.
 

Rafa has spoken of back problems and he has some strapping there, but he looked fine in R4 and I favour him today on the slow surface. 1.5 units Rafael Nadal -6.5 games 1.95 Pinnacle Sports.

 
 
 

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