Serie A and FA Cup betting preview ...
Jan 05, 2014
Two brief previews from today's subscriber newsletter(s), which looked at a total of eight matches.
Serie A: Chievo-Cagliari
We backed Cagliari with the handicap start for their last road game, a trip to Parma ...
This is one of those games where I smell an "upset" of sorts. Parma are unbeaten in five and are expected to beat a visitor who struggle on the road , especially for goals and who are yet to win away from their island home this campaign. However, the hosts are without midfielders Wálter Gargano (9-1-1) and Marco Parolo (15-6-3 .... missed one game in 55 weeks a 3-0 home defeat to Udinese) and with Daniele Galloppa still out to long term injury, that leaves them short of quality options across the middle of the park.
Cagliari are themselves unbeaten in four, three were at home, but the road point came at highflying Roma, where they came close to snatching an unlikely win, they arrive without suspended holding player Daniele Conti (14-4-1... lost 6 from 9 without him) and injured secondary striker Víctor Ibarbo (14-2-1), but have scored four in their last two starts without him. The loss of Conti is important, but will be less felt with Parma unable to exert as much pressure as normal in midfield. I must be honest, it is the loss of Parolo which swings me the way of the visitors, I watched that defeat to Udinese and Parma were devoid of ideas without their midfield inspiration and Udine were worth maybe more than a three goal win and they were at less than full strength that day, being without Di Natale for example. Only Verona outsde of the bottom 5 have conceded more goals than Parma and one might be enough for Cagliari to snatch at least a point today.
That ended 0-0, Cagliari couldn’t believe they had not scored on 62 minutes. Mirante got a fingertip to Marco Sau’s angled drive, it dribbled slowly towards an empty net, ricocheted off the inside of the upright and was rolling in before Massimo Gobbi performed a goalline clearance. They followed up with a 1-1 home draw with Napoli before the Christmas break and are in reasonable form. Today they arrive pretty much at full strength, with only fringe striker Nenê missing, Víctor Ibarbo (14--2-1) who plays in the secondary striker position returns after missing the last month.
We opposed Chievo in their last home game, a 1-0 defeat to Sampdoria ...Chievo are without suspended left back Boukary Dramé (12-0-1 .....Chievo are 0-4-7 when he plays 45 minutes or less), out injured are central defender Bostjan Cesar (14-1-0 .... lost 5/6 without him), defensive midfielder Ivan Radovanovic (13-0-0... one win in 12 without him.... there is a theme going on here !) and several fringe players including midfielder Alessio Sestu and striker Sergio Pellissier.
They followed that with a 4-1 beating at Torino and the mini break probably came at a good time, they are in better shape today team news wise and like the visitors, are pretty much at full strength. I feel both will have avoiding defeat as a clear priority today and there is a history of close battles between these two here in Verona, with five of the last eight meetings ending all square. The draw at 3.20 + is tempting, but Cagliari are knocking on the door for a first road win of the campaign and I will stick with them. 1.25 units Cagliari +0.25 ball 1.86 asian line/ibramarket.
Cagliari: Adan , Avramov, Astori, Avelar, Del Fabro, Murru, Perico, Pisano, Rossettini, Cabrera, Conti, Cossu, Dessena, Ekdal, Nainggolan, Ibarbo, Ibraimi, Pinilla, Sau.
FA Cup: Liverpool-Oldham Athletic
These two are meeting for the third time in this competition in as many seasons, Pool won 5-1 here at this stage two years ago and lost 3-2 at Boundary Park, which anyone, who has been there for a evening mid winter game knows, is the coldest football ground in world football ( and an experience I have no wish to repeat..... it is not know as Ice Station Zebra wiithout good reason) last season in Round 4.
That was a painful loss for Liverpool, the match was televised live and highlights from it are being shown in FA Cup advertisements several times per day at present and will be broadcast over and over again in build up today. It was not even that the Premier League side rested a lot of players, Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez played for the full 90 minutes and Steven Gerrard for most of the second half, so no real excuses. However, home and away to a League 1 side is a very different matter and you might expect Liverpool coach Brendan Rodgers to rotate heavily today, however, Gerrard who returned from injury off the bench last time out against Hull is eager to start and Suarez, despite having a slight knock is begging the head coach to play apparently. The whole squad felt humiliated last year and I think that they are after a little revenge this time round. Athletic have won just once in nine starts, they are not a bad footballing side and impressed with their play at Griffin Park in a 1-0 defeat three weeks ago. However, they have played a lot of football, two games more than Liverpool in the last month and in the current conditions and given the higher fitness levels of the home side (see yesterday's Grimsby-Huddersfield preview) that will be key. So too will be the fact that the Latics have changed their style of football and are less about the "up an at them" approach which worked last season and more about trying to play the game the right way and working very hard, which, with this their seventh game in three weeks on super heavy pitches is far from ideal. 1.25 units Liverpool -2.75 goals 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
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