Albion on the rise ...........

Jan 17, 2023
football betting tips -

On December 1st, which is less than seven weeks ago I wrote ...........

 
Championship:
2022/23 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
1 Burnley 21 11 8 2 40 23 +17 41 WLWW 11 7 4 0 23 10 10 4 4 2 17 13
2 1 Sheffield United 21 11 5 5 35 19 +16 38 WLWW 10 5 3 2 22 11 11 6 2 3 13 8
3 -1 Blackburn Rovers 21 12 0 9 24 22 +2 36 LWLW 10 8 0 2 17 7 11 4 0 7 7 15
4 1 Watford 21 9 6 6 28 22 +6 33 OWLW 10 6 1 3 17 10 11 3 5 3 11 12
5 -1 Norwich City 21 9 5 7 29 23 +6 32 LWOW 11 5 3 3 18 12 10 4 2 4 11 11
6 5 Millwall 20 9 4 7 26 22 +4 31 WOOL 10 7 1 2 16 7 10 2 3 5 10 15
  7 -1 QPR 21 9 4 8 26 24 +2 31 LLLO 10 5 2 3 15 10 11 4 2 5 11 14
  8 Swansea City 21 8 7 6 27 28 -1 31 OXXL 10 5 2 3 15 13 11 3 5 3 12 15
  9 -2 Preston North End 21 8 7 6 18 20 -2 31 LWWW 11 3 4 4 7 11 10 5 3 2 11 9
  10 -1 Luton Town 21 7 9 5 23 22 +1 30 XLWO 11 2 7 2 14 12 10 5 2 3 9 10
  11 1 Coventry City 19 8 5 6 21 18 +3 29 WWWW 9 5 1 3 10 6 10 3 4 3 11 12
  12 1 Reading 21 9 2 10 23 30 -7 29 WLLO 10 6 1 3 15 11 11 3 1 7 8 19
  13 -3 Birmingham City 21 7 7 7 23 20 +3 28 LXWO 11 3 5 3 13 10 10 4 2 4 10 10
  14 2 Middlesbrough 21 7 6 8 29 26 +3 27 WWXW 10 3 5 2 11 10 11 4 1 6 18 16
  15 2 Sunderland 20 7 6 7 26 23 +3 27 WLWX 9 2 4 3 10 10 11 5 2 4 16 13
  16 -2 Rotherham United 21 6 8 7 25 26 -1 26 XWLL 10 4 3 3 17 12 11 2 5 4 8 14
  17 -2 Stoke City 21 7 4 10 22 27 -5 25 LWLW 10 3 2 5 11 14 11 4 2 5 11 13
  18 2 Bristol City 21 6 6 9 27 29 -2 24 OXLX 11 4 3 4 13 10 10 2 3 5 14 19
  19 -1 Cardiff City 21 7 3 11 17 25 -8 24 LLWL 11 4 2 5 9 10 10 3 1 6 8 15
  20 -1 Hull City 21 7 3 11 25 39 -14 24 LWOL 11 4 0 7 11 20 10 3 3 4 14 19
  21 1 WBA 20 5 8 7 24 24 +0 23 WWWL 11 3 4 4 14 14 9 2 4 3 10 10
-- 22 1 Wigan Athletic 21 6 5 10 21 31 -10 23 WLXL 11 2 3 6 8 18 10 4 2 4 13 13
-- 23 -2 Blackpool 21 6 4 11 24 33 -9 22 LLLL 10 3 1 6 12 16 11 3 3 5 12 17
-- 24 Huddersfield Town 20 5 4 11 19 26 -7 19 OWLL 11 4 2 5 10 10 9 1 2 6 9 16
 
The Championship is a little crazy, the top two look solid enough, but Blackpool in 23rd are only 9 points off the playoff pace! Three wins in a row for anyone at the lower end of that group is going to see them zoom up the table and no one is really out of the promotion race as of today. It highlights the lack of quality in the second tier and this is something I have touched upon several times in the last two seasons, games are still super competitive and fun to watch, but the overall level has gone backwards and we could discuss the reasons all day long, but the most likely answer is the same as always, money! Teams are no longer willing or able to invest to the same level as they were previously.
 
Anyway, I have three teams to discuss, two today and one next week and I think it is a trio who will serve us well in the coming months/weeks. First up are West Bromwich Albion and Millwall. Both have a game in hand on most other teams which is useful given how tight things are. The Baggies were my pre-season pick and as bad as that looks given that they are 21st, I cannot re-read those notes and disagree with too much ........
 
The team I am most keen on at current odds is West Bromwich Albion they were very unlucky with injuries last season, also changed head coach, but played much better than their finishing position indicated.
 
XP suggests that the top of the table should have finished .....
 
1. Fulham
2. WBA
 
 
..........with Albion closer to Fulham than to the team in 4th . As much as it pains me to say it as a Brentford supporter, Fulham were an elite Championship side, as good as any we have seen since Wolves in 2017/18 and you can forget those 10 losses and "just" 90 points. Five of those defeats came in the last 10 games, when promotion was all but secured, a far better reflection of their ability was their 106 goals scored (2.3+ per game) and ridiculous +63 goal difference, to put that into context , three of the playoff teams combined only put up +43. I know the Championship really well and believe me, that total will "never" be beaten, it is an insane number in a most competitive division. Anyway, Albion were the closest to the Cottagers (!) in expected terms and closer to the runaway champions than all bar one team (Sheffield United ) were to them. United would be my second pick, but I am less keen on their additions at present and whilst I expect them to do well, prefer to look in more detail at them once the window has closed and business concluded.
 
Albion were relegated in 20/21 and prior to last season spent 13 of the previous 20 seasons in the EPL, in the other seven, they, rather incredibly, finished 2-2-4-1-2-4-2 in the Championship, so the 10th place finish was a shock. However, they played some of the campaign without a striker of note and on occasion had to play with a false nine, they spent money on a star front man in the January window and he picked up a long term injury immediately ! Daryl Dike is fit now and scoring in pre season and he was a beast in the second half of 20/21 for a Barnsley side who almost made it to the EPL and at only just turned 22, he is still improving. He and Karlan Grant  (18 goals + in each of his last two seasons at this level) could run riot with a little luck. I love the signings of DM Okay Yokuslu from Celta Vigo and especially John Swift from Reading and Jed Wallace from Millwall, two players still young but with huge Championship experience. Swift is very gifted, has a host of England U21 appearances to his name and was back to his best last season with 11 goals and 13 assists in a poor Royals team. Wallace was Mr Millwall and has 26 goals and 30 assists across the last three seasons, despite quite often being asked to play out of position, he is a leader on and off the pitch, has already made a huge impression in his first month at the Hawthorns and could have signed for multiple other ambitious Championship sides. Yokuslu knows the club well and was at Albion in their last EPL campaign.
 
Steve Bruce took charge of WBA in February, so this is his first transfer window, love him or hate him, his record in the Championship is incredible and he has been promoted to the EPL four times, twice each with Birmingham City and Hull City and if he can get those up, this should be a breeze! He knows how to get out of this division and he has averaged almost 1.7 ppg across 265 starts, which is 78 points per season (circa 5th place) as a starting position. Albion have six players at the club who have combined for 194 Championship goals/assists since the start of the 19/20 season. Albion were 0.5 goals per game short of expected levels last season and will get more chances created and converted from Swift and Wallace and surely have to go close . 
 
Steve Bruce has now gone and been replaced by Carlos Corberan who took Huddersfield Town to within a kick or two of the Premier League last season losing narrowly and unluckily in the playoff final to Nottingham Forest, after the Terriers had finished 18th and 20th in the previous two campaigns, a remarkable achievement and turnaround.
 
Albion are top of the table for xP which gives them an additional 21 points over "reality" and they have only lost two games for xG all season. The three players I highlighted above Yokuslu, Swift and Wallace are elite in second tier terms, the latter has played all season and has three goals and three assists, the other two have been struggling for fitness, but have both played the full 90 minutes in the last three games, all of which Albion won without conceding. Swift contributed to three goals in that sequence and made the Championship team of the month.
 
Injury prone striker Daryl Dike also came off the bench in that final start for his first minutes since August, Dike needs to get back to full fitness as soon as possible now, after missing virtually 11 injury hit months, but would be like a new striker for Albion.He is an absolute beast, in a  good way (!) and makes life hell for opposing defenders ,is immensely strong in possession, great with his hold up play and has a good scoring record in the Championship. Dike would have made the US squad for the World Cup had he made his return a few weeks earlier and hopefully he has used their progress in Qatar as motivation, they are the main host in 2026 when he will still be a young man and barely in his prime (26 yo then). 
 
The new head coach has overseen four games total , three wins and three clean sheets and will have been able to get all his ideas across in a full month at the training ground. Talking of which, Corberan is said to have had a huge impact on those Walsall training pitches, his work ethic is second to none and he prepares meticulously for every opponent. The four weeks have been planned down to the smallest detail and I understand the board were shocked by how well he was prepared and just what he knew about the squad at his job interview. He had watched all 17 league games and gave a detailed analysis of every squad member, strengths and weaknesses.
 
The head coach is used to success and knows the Championship well, he led the Leeds U23 team to promotion, was a key member of the Bielsa coaching staff when the first team made it to the EPL and was a few wrong decisions from officials away from doing the same with Huddersfield in the top job. Anyone who has ever seen him work in training has been impressed and the Albion players have, apparently, been "blown away".
 
Albion will have a strong second half of the season and they are likely to feature regularly for us, if they win their game in hand they would be just three points off top half and five adrift of the playoff spots and anything is still possible in this season unlike any other!
 
This morning the Championship top six looks like this ..........
 
2022/23 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
1 Burnley 27 17 8 2 53 25 +28 59 WWWW 14 10 4 0 30 11 13 7 4 2 23 14
2 Sheffield United 27 16 6 5 47 24 +23 54 WXWW 13 8 3 2 29 13 14 8 3 3 18 11
3 1 Watford 27 12 7 8 33 28 +5 43 WWLL 13 7 2 4 19 12 14 5 5 4 14 16
4 1 Middlesbrough 27 12 6 9 42 33 +9 42 WWWW 13 6 5 2 18 12 14 6 1 7 24 21
5 -2 Blackburn Rovers 27 14 0 13 30 34 -4 42 LWLL 13 9 0 4 20 13 14 5 0 9 10 21
6 3 WBA 27 11 8 8 37 28 +9 41 WWWW 14 6 4 4 20 14 13 5 4 4 17 14
 
WBA have moved up 15 places having taken 18 points from seven starts and they are clear top of the Championship for xP, it is going to be a very tall order to haul in the top two, but they look great for top six and all those star names are fit, playing and in fine form, with Dike, Wallace, Swift and Yokoslu contributing to nine goals ( six goals and three assists) since writing the above notes. They have some superb bench options, opting to rotate all 11 starters in a recent cup game and young striker, Brandon Thomas-Asante, who was signed from League 2 side, Salford City, at the end of the summer transfer window, has proved he can make the step up, with five goals in his last eight appearances. He is a great bench option, but misses the next two starts with a suspension, however, Albion came from 2-0 down to beat a strong Luton Town side 3-2 at the weekend in his absence. However, it is head coach Corberan who is the real hero and he and his coaching staff and their incredible attention to detail (see above) have had a massive influence in double quick time at the Hawthorns.
 
Tonight the Baggies can relax a little, with a FA Cup replay at home against non-league Chesterfield after the two clubs shared six goals in a thriller in North Derbyshire, which was the fixture in which Corberan opted to rotate his entire starting 11 from the league game five days earlier. The Albion side still included a lot of experience and they "won" on target attempts 10-6, BC's 4-2 . The league is the top priority by far for Albion and Corberan, but they are at home now, have a very win-able 4th round game if they progress and have as much depth as any team in the Championship and probably need an extra game or two , just to keep some of these fringe players ticking over and match fit. Of the 11 used in the first game , seven had 1,600 appearances at Championship or Premier League level between them and four were full internationals (two for England). So it is hard to see how Corberan can name a "weak" side, whomever he selects and the likelihood is that he goes a little stronger this evening than for the first meeting and we know he will have learned a lot for that game as that is what he does!
 
This is a big game for the visitors of course , they have sold out their allocation of tickets and will want to do well, but the league and trying to get back into the Football League is their priority too and most supporters named the weekend game with Notts County, who are their biggest rival in this division, as their most important game this week and a quick look at the top of National league will soon tell you why ............
 
2022/23 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
1 Notts County 27 18 8 1 69 25 +44 62 XWXW 13 9 4 0 27 6 14 9 4 1 42 19
2 Wrexham 25 18 5 2 64 21 +43 59 WWWW 12 12 0 0 44 10 13 6 5 2 20 11
3 1 Woking 26 16 4 6 47 25 +22 52 WWWW 13 8 2 3 26 14 13 8 2 3 21 11
4 -1 Chesterfield 23 15 4 4 49 27 +22 49 WWWL 12 10 0 2 28 13 11 5 4 2 21 14
 
The Spirites scored three in the first meeting and Albion have conceded five in their last two and are likely to again have a largely youthful back line, so value this evening with .......
 
2 units West Bromwich Albion to win and both teams to score 3.13 asian line.
 
 
Good luck!
 
 

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Country: 
England
Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
English FA Cup
Football Teams: 
Chesterfield
West Bromwich Albion

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