All change in Indy!
Sep 10, 2023
NFL:Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Ahead of a Jaguars playoff game in Kansas City back in January I wrote..............
The Jaguars have made huge strides under Doug Pederson this season , he took a team in a total mess and with a young quarterback stripped of confidence, turned them around in double quick time and into playoff contenders. Jacksonville have a very bright future and Pederson has proved yet again what a great head coach he is. He also knows Reid and the Chiefs well, having spent 10 years under Reid and at three different teams, including three as a player in Green Bay (1997-99) ,seven as an assistant coach (Philadelphia (2009-12) and Kansas City (2013-15). However, his QB Trevor Lawrence threw FOUR first half interceptions last week, the Jags still found a way to edge home (still not entirely sure how) , but a lot of the old concerns about TL resurfaced and he is far from the finished article yet, which is good long term for Jacksonville, but his propensity to throw into trouble when pressured is still bubbling under the surface.
Also , the Jags cannot defend against Tight Ends, they have given up the third most receiving yards and third most yards per reception to them this year and KC have the best of the best in Travis Kelce. He has 1.338 yards receiving this year and 12 touchdowns, the next best TE has 914 yards and only one has more than 7 touchdowns, there are elite Tight Ends and then there is Travis Kelce.
In that game Lawrence did throw an INT at a key time and Kelce had 14 receptions and two touchdowns, so both issues were again highlighted, but don't get me wrong, the Jags were vastly improved overall and no reason that they will not improve still further from that 9-8 season. However, they do not need to beat the Colts today to do that and they can also win and not cover this spread. As poor as the Colts were last season (4-12-1), eight of their games were very close, decided by 5 points or fewer and they still beat the Jags here at Lucas Oil Stadium 34-27 and for the 9th time in 10 visits. Indy have a new head coach in Shane Steichen who has had three wildly successful years as offensive coordinator with first the Chargers and the last two with the Eagles. First up, his teams do not turnover the ball (ranked #1 for fewest INT's) and dominated all rushing stats and were incredibly good on third and fourth downs, especially the former, which went under the radar a little, in 2021 the Eagles set a single season franchise record for 3rd down conversion percentage and they broke it last year. His own offensive coordinator is Jim Bob Cooter, which is as Southern a name as you might find and he and Steichen are friends and worked together in Philly, but Cooter spent last year as the Jags passing game coordinator so his knowledge today is going to be invaluable. They have kept second season defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, he is another who knows the Jags well having been their head coach previously for four years. So a lot of knowledge on the Jags and motivation to beat them.
The two friends are young and they have the youngest quarterback in the NFL, in Anthony Richardson (pictured) who only turned 21yo in May and entered the draft after just 13 games at college. The Colts said he was the man they wanted, but had the 4th pick in the draft, things went their way with the opening three picks and they got their man. There is no talk of introducing Richardson slowly, he has already been named starter for this season and Indy feel he is a star, with superstar potential and the numbers he has set at the scouting combine were just ridiculous, breaking multiple records for QB's and someone whose opinion I trust said that no QB had ever come into the NFL with the physical attributes of Richardson. The QB will still be learning the passing game, but he is electric with the ball in his hands and Steichen was the architect of Jalen Hurts breakthrough with the Eagles and to me this has similar potential and could be a match made in heaven. There was plenty already pretty good in Indy, just that so much went wrong in 2022 and they had posted back to back winning seasons before last year. I am excited to see the Colts and especially Richardson.
2 units Indianapolis Colts +3 points 2.31 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Good luck!
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