Visitors have already won the Copa do Brasil and therefore qualified for the 2019 Copa Libertadores group stage. Secure in 9th place they have little to play for in the league and despite being one of the better Brazilian teams, it is very difficult to see how they can match the motivation of America today and any remaining energy that Cruz want to use up, should be reserved for home games. They have won 2/15 away from home scoring 7 goals and I cannot see any reason they should be favourites to win today, beyond the fact that this is a derby game between two Belo Horizonte clubs, if anything, maybe Cruz migjt not mind America staying up, it means another local game when so many trips are long and arduous in Brazil and I doubt they feel that America are likely to rival them for honours in the coming years.

 

The hosts are in 16th , outside the drop zone on goal difference, they have been very difficult to beat at home all season (6-7-2) and ahead of a recent home game with Corinthians I touched upon how they were playing better at the time (improved from early season) , tough to score against and were lifting their game versus the bigger clubs ......

 

 

They drew 0-0 that day, but have let their level drop again, so desperately need to win again and under the circumstances, this feels like the ideal fixture and there were signs in the other derby (with Atletico 0-0) and home draw with Gremio, that things were coming back together, creating by far the better chances in both, "beating" AMG 8-2 in attempts on target for example. Home win for me.

 

America do have three players suspended, but only one was likely to have started and I have said many times that ,for me, team news is not so important at this time of the season.

 

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They lost that 2-1, apart from the obvious answer that they conceded more than they scored ! I am not sure how, as they bossed almost all stat categories and a draw was the minimum they deserved. They face easier opposition today with Parana winless in 18 starts ( 13 losses) they are coming off a home draw with Vitoria last week (read notes), again that was a result against the run of play as Parana "lost" attempts 14-5, inside box 11-2, on target 4-1, big chances 3-0 , saves 3-0.  Huge game for America, win will take them out of the drop zone anything else will be little short of a disaster, with 3 of the 4 teams immediately above them at home later this weekend and America away to second placed Internacional next time out.