Brazil: Serie A betting tip: Fluminense- Parana

Oct 08, 2018
football betting tips -
 
 
 
Brazil: Serie A: Fluminense- Parana
 
 
Last time I discussed Fluminense was ahead of their home game with neighbours Botafogo four weeks ago, when I also spoke about Serie A games in general and how "normal service"
had been resumed this season ..........
 
 
That nosedive in home wins in Serie A last season from the usual 52-53% to 43.95% remains impossible to explain, we are back running at 52.81% this year and the drop in 2017 has to just be viewed as a blip. Teams face a gruelling schedule in Brazil, 38 games inside less than 7 months with almost every team also involved in some international club games and Copa do Brasil which is always taken seriously. Add in the long distances travelled and often to venues where conditions are very different to those left behind and the paucity of away wins ( just 17.98% this season which equates to odds of 5.56) makes sense, 8 of the 13 road teams this week have failed to score and we need a very good case to back a visitor.
 
I previewed two of these teams in midweek when Flu hosted Vitoria , you can read notes below the "good luck" sign off, where I also reference Flu's early season reverse fixture with Botafogo. Flu dominated the game on Thursday and will feel it was very much two points dropped. Today they have the derby game, but have won 3 of the last five h2h meetings as hosts and kept a clean sheet in 6 of 9, they lost that reverse fixture 2-1 also against the run of play, but it is many, many years since either team swept the series and that should only further motivate the host. Botafogo have won just 2/18 as visitor, losing 10 , so they are operating even below that poor record of away teams in Brazil.
 
Fluminense won that 1-0, but have lost at home subsequentltly (Gremio), but did win one of two on the road (Chapecoense). Home wins are still running at 53% + in A, aways largely unchanged at 17.69%. Hosts are in midtable, but only four points above the drop zone and have the massive derby with Flamengo up next, one of the biggest fixtures in Brazil, that is followed by back to back games against two teams battling for Copa Libertadores spots and they will want some form going into those, especially the next and to just ease any pressure they may be feeling. Parana are "dream" opposition, bottom of the table, 13 points from safety, with a dire 0-1-12 road record, scoring just twice in those 13 starts !
 
Flu do not score many and it is all about the points, but I do see them not wanting to take chances and a second goal would mean that they could then turn their thoughts towards Flamengo and they will be mindful they lost away to Parana (revenge ?) and then three days later lost 2-0 in the reverse fixture with Fla and will not wish to carry the same baggage into the upcoming derby.
 
 
1.75 units Fluminense -1.5 goals 2.50 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

 

Good Luck.

 

 
 
Fluminense- Vitoria (written September 6th)
 

I have spoken of Fluminense several times this season as a team better than the league table suggests, I have offered a caveat in that it might just be that whenever I have seen them "live" they have upped their game, but that has been 5-6 occasions now and seems unlikely.

Earlier in the season I wrote a preview which covered two of their games which highlights all that ..........

 

Fluminense are 11th, four points above the drop zone, but only five adrift of Palmeiras, I have watched them three times (as opposed to highlights) and been impressed each time, I accept that I might have seen them at their best , but I have to believe they will get chances today and in early season I wrote .............
 
I watched Botafogo -Fluminense 12 days ago, they lost 2-1 ,but Flu looked much the better team, were very offensive minded and should have won by a couple of goals, some of their passing and build up play was very slick ,eyecatching and all at pace, I was impressed. They did have a weakness and that was defending crosses, which was where both Botafogo goals came, via headers and, aerially, is where Chapecoense pose a threat ( see above notes). Home win, both to score.
 
They won that 3-1 (also hit the woodwork) and I expected them to build on that, but they have been inconsistent and more miss than hit subsequently, however, they picked up four points from trips to Vasca da Gama and Sport Recife last week. I watched the latter and could write almost the same as did for the road game with Botafogo above, they look way better than midtable and Pedro up top has nine goals already and will score many more if he stays injury free, he looks super confident and has that swagger which all inform strikers have.

 

They beat Palmeiras that day but have largely struggled since, they sit 12th this morning, a win could take them 9th, but they are only four points adrift of the drop zone, two of the teams below them won yesterday and it would be easy to find themselves in needless trouble should they slip up tonight. They picked up an unexpected point at leaders Sao Paulo last weekend, they were without players to injury /suspension and rested one or two others with this week in mind ( two home games, other is a derby and this will be "easier"), but SP were down to 10 men before the break and Flu got the bonus, it should have been all three points, they were denied by the woodwork twice and missed a host of good chances and played well , regardless of how many players they were facing.

Flu have largely dominated this series in recent years winning six of the last nine meetings in Rio with the last six having three or more goals, it hardly promises to be a shootout on paper, as Vitoria have scored just 6 in 10 starts, but they have shipped 28 in 11 aways outings and have a habit of letting away games run away from them once falling behind. They arrive without suspended midfielders Marcelo Meli and Neilton, the latter has 5 goals and 4 assists and is top contributor in each category and he has had a hand in 41% of all goals scored by the visitors. Flu will be much stronger today, this feels like a must win fixture and I expect them to take all three points with a degree of ease.

 

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Country: 
Brazil
Sport: 
Football

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