Last week Parana went to Santos ..........

 

Parana left back Mansur is suspended. They have picked up just that single point at Chapeco so far this season and look short of quality and goals, they have conceded at the rate of 2.0 per game and will be weakened defensively today. Their game was all about keeping things tight last season, which was fine in Serie B, but against (much) better quality teams it is not so easy and they just don't look to have enough goals in them to keep things competitive. They won just 4 times on the road as a promoted team last season, scoring only 16 (one of the relegated teams managed more) and despite it all being about defense, still conceded the most away goals of the top 4.

Santos have started poorly and sit just two points above Parana, however, they have only played one home game (2-0 win) and it is on home soil where most A teams thrive and where Santos are especially strong, something we have discussed a LOT and milked over 4-5 seasons. Over the last three they are 43-9-6 at home, posting a 74.14% win rate and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They are dealing with the loss of star playmaker Lucas Lima (now Palmeiras), but Gariel Barbosa (Gabigol) is back from Europe where things did not work out and eager to get his still very young career back on track. Santos made the decision to go with a strong line up in their midweek Copa do Brasil game and look to get some confidence back after a heavy road defeat last week and that paid off with a 5-1 win, they created a host of chances with Gabigol scoring a hat-trick, his first goals since his return. I expect him to get on the team sheet and Santos to win this by 2+. The hosts have been distracted by the Copa Libertadores, but have secured qualification now to the knockout stage, which they can forget until August, so it should all be about matters domestic.

 

Santos won 3-1, Parana did score, but only a consolation deep in injury time and in their three matches against better Serie A teams, have only avergaed 4 attempts per game from inside the penalty area.

 

Gremio are unbeaten in five (four wins) league and cup, scoring 15 goals and will be looking for the win to stay in touch with the top 4. They won the Copa Libertadores last year and I suspect that a domestic title will be a priority for 2018. Last year, in addition to that Copa win, they finished 4th in the league, just a point shy of 2nd and reached the last 4 of the Copa do Brasil losing on a penalty shoot out to the eventual winners and played at a very high level across all games, despite often putting out a B+ team in Serie A, with that international title in mind.  At the moment , the squad has been kept pretty much intact , Arthur is on his way at some stage to Barcelona, but not before July at the earliest, Luan has remained despite a lot of European clubs looking and they have  a very experienced and watertight backline built around Pedro Geromel (one of just three home based players in the Brazilian WC squad) and Walter Kannemann. They are without a couple of those today, Geromel has already left to join the national team, but have depth (witness last season) and look strong offensively this afternoon with Ramiro returning and Paulo Miranda who was signed from Red Bull Salzburg to cover at CB, coming into replace Geromel. They are 13-5-1 since last October when Ramiro plays, the sole loss coming in a game where they just needed to avoid a 3 + goal defeat.Visitors too strong.

 

 

1.5 units Gremio -0.75 ball 2.30 asian line/Sportmarket.