No doubt now that Palmeiras are the best team in CONMEBOL, they are looking to win a third straight Copa Libertadores this season (one foot and four toes in the quarter final) and already have a three point lead at the top of the table.They are top scorers by some way, but have conceded six goals in their seven home games and are relatively happy to just outscore teams here in SP.

 

Athletico have been very much a home team (like many in Brazil) for a number of years, but have also turned into something of a cup specialist and made the Copa do Brasil final last year and also won the Copa Sudamericana, despite finishing 14th in the league, which was a fair reflection looking at xGD. They qualified comfortably through the Copa Libertadores group stage and also won their R16 home game in midweek, but only 2-1 so will have one eye on the return leg in Paraguay in a few days time. However, they are in great form, are unbeaten in 12 ( 9 wins) , scoring 25 goals. Their last league game was a 4-2 home win over Bragantino ahead of which my notes included ............

 

The hosts have had a tougher week and played away at Bahia in midweek ( 4,500km round trip) , there have been just 26 goals in their games, but xGD suggests it should be at least 11 more and with the "over" priced very competitively, that has to again be the call in a RBB game (their last 3 starts have averaged 3.5 xG).

 

That win took CAP up to 3rd and they clearly pose more offensive threat than their goals for column indicates and they can play their part in an open game.

 

CAP held three full training sessions aimed solely for Palmeiras, despite that midweek game (players in Brazil earn their salary!) , all available players travelled and they will leave for Paraguay, directly from SP on Sunday morning

 

2.25 units Both teams to score @ 2.31 asian line.

 

Good luck!