Bundesliga: all the stats ahead of the restart in black and white ............and red and blue !

football betting tips -

Pd = games played.

Pts = points

GD = goal difference

XP=  expected points

XGD = expected goal difference

ITB = inside the box net numbers for the season

L8 = inside the box totals (created-conceded) for the last 8 games.

The first three columns are "real" in terms of points won and goals scored/conceded, but league tables do sometimes "lie" even after 37 games and the last four columns are more interesting as they show performance levels and who has been over/underachieving in front of goal at both ends of the pitch.

The numbers which are shown in blue type indicate teams who are playing above the level of their current league position, those in red for teams who have outperformed their stats and we would normally expect results for the former to improve and the latter to fall away. Double or treble (or more) blue or red numbers are especially noteworthy.

I will finish with my normal observation that : I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

The top 7 on ITB numbers and the only teams on positive numbers are ..........
 
Bayern +176
Leipzig +108
Leverkusen +77
Dortmund +61
Frankfurt +58
Koln +24
Wolfsburg +23
 
XP puts the top 7 as a similar .......
 
Bayern 57 pts
Leipzig 52
Dortmund 46
BMG 46
Wolfsburg 42
Leverkusen 42
Frankfurt 37
 
Only one team is on more than 30 points and that is Koln with 33 points in "8th".
 
It is VERY hard to argue against these being the eight elite teams in Germany, they filled the top 7 positions in 2018-19 with Koln, who were 5th in the top flight in 2017, promoted from 2.Bundesliga last season.
 
XGD suggests that Dortmund should be +17.5 goals and not +35 , overachieving to the tune of a massive 18.5 in terms of goals scored, next biggest differential for XGF is 4.3 !
 
XGA says that Werder Bremen should have conceded 12.6 goals less, Freiburg pretty much the same number (12.4) more.
 

These stats are only ever a starting point for our analysis and clubgowi will be looking at all nine Bundesliga games next weekend.

 

Good luck and stay safe.
 

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