Bundesliga betting tip: Freiburg- RB Leipzig
Mar 06, 2021
Bundesliga: Freiburg- RB Leipzig
Freiburg were our team for a great few weeks around the turn of the year and landed some hefty bets at good odds, we have stepped away from them since the end of January after a loss at Wolfsburg, as it felt like they had been found out, but at that time I wrote .............
Freiburg are 6-2-2 in their last 10 starts, have scored 23 goals in that sequence and posted some totally insane numbers which we have discussed and used to our advantage several times. First of which was a New Year trip to Hoffenheim when I wrote ..........
It is the team in 10th place Freiburg I want to talk about and highlight for you their incredible stats over the last four rounds, they have actually only lost once in six, but it is the numbers they have put up that are amazing and way beyond their level of results and what even elite teams in the Bundesliga rarely, if ever, match. Over their last four games they are 53-20 ITB and 16-5 for BC's, 52 is the most created in the Bundesliga over that sequence and 20 the third fewest conceded, 17 BC's is 7 more than Bayern and only Frankfurt with 13 got to within 5, five conceded is second fewest in the division. They were coming from bottom 4-5 overall levels and they have obviously hit on something and are a team to take serious note of.
I have already discussed Freiburg's recent form, Hoffenheim are usually fun to watch and this matchup should provide plenty of entertainment. TSG are, at least offensively, not a bottom 8 team, they have created a whopping 34 BC's which is 6th highest and 113 ITB attempts is way more than any other team below Freiburg , it is at the other end of the pitch that their issues lie and they have given up the 4th most ITB attempts and 3rd most BC's on their own goal. It is terribly difficult not to see huge value in the odds about the away win, doubly so when we note that they won 3-0 here last season and have scored at least once in their last 10 trips to Hoffenheim , including 3+ goals in 3 of the last 6. TSG have lost 14 of their last 25 home games, a whopping 56% .
I could hardly have written in more forceful terms and when I do, which is rare and the numbers speak so loudly about a team, then we should all take special note.
Freiburg have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 Bundesliga matches, only coming up short at Bayern and should have scored twice there.
They did beat Dortmund next time out (2-1) then had a mini blip, before winning 2-1 away to Leverkusen last weekend. They seem to like playing and testing themselves against the "name" sides, scoring freely in them and clearly they still retain that offensive potential and the game at Wolfsburg aside, are not easy to score against. Today clearly meets all the big name opponent criteria and RBL will go top for an hour or so with the win, but I have gone a little cold on Leipzig and cannot get that awful showing against Liverpool out of my mind and whilst they have got back on track winning 3/3 subsequently, they were 2-0 down to a struggling BMG with an hour played (lost that on xG) and also had a tough cup game in midweek, whereas Freiburg had a full week to prepare for today. The hosts have won the last three h2h meetings here, to further encourage the thinking that this is the kind of contest in which we see them at their best. RBL will be without Marcel Halstenberg and Willi Orban as well as club captain Marcel Sabitzer and Angelino will face a late test. But could be saved for the midweek game with Liverpool, where , given the Reds continued poor form, maybe all is not yet lost for the German side. It is a distraction of sorts in any case.
1.75 units Freiburg +0.25 ball 2.92 asian line/Sportmarket.
1 unit Freiburg to score "over" 1.5 goals 3.25-3.40 general quote.
Good luck !
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