This is a rematch of last season's Champions League final which Real won 1-0, albeit riding their luck, but they did that round after round .

 

One (or two) swallow does not a summer make and I am still not a Liverpool believer, at least defensively, even after back to back 2-0 wins over Everton and Newcastle United. In the first they should have conceded 20 seconds before taking the lead and that knocked the Toffees for six and was a game changer , on Saturday, they were outplayed for lengthy periods by a team who played 73 minutes with 10 men, the Magpies creating 2.0 xG, 3 BC's, hitting the woodwork twice and 12 of their 14 attempts on goal were from ITB. 

 

Pool are 8th in the EPL and even after those six points, are still 13 shy of their total at this stage of the campaign last season and have conceded 9 goals more, if that was not bad enough, a couple of XGA tables say they should have conceded between 8-10 additional goals and that tallies with what I have seen with my own eyes and good defensive teams do not concede from FOUR consecutive corners ( two disallowed , one a very marginal decision) as they did at Brentford.

 

Real are 16-3-3 with 51 points on board in La Liga, 8 behind Barcelona and a lot of talk about them having gone backwards. Well that's one more point than they had at this stage last season and the second most through 22 games since 16/17 (only one shy), when they totalled 93 for the season, their most in the last decade and they are very much a second half of the season team. XP puts them on a few points fewer, but exactly on par with Barcelona and xGF gives them an additional 6-7 goals. They scored six goals in their three road CL group stage games and in their last seven away La Liga starts they averaged 2.2 xGF per game and scored 2+ goals in five. Real also won the World Club Cup this month, scoring 9 goals in their two games, which makes 15 in their last four outings and it feels like they are building up a head of steam. Liverpool have won 2/6 home CL knockout stage games and only 1/5 at Anfield in the R16, although we have to bear in mind that they did not need to win all of those, but it is hardly a record which matches their Anfieldunder the light european reputation and this version of the Reds looks weaker than any we have seen domestically since 2015/16. 

 

2 units Real Madrid level ball 2.30 asian line.

 

Good luck!