I spent most of last season saying how bad Forest were under Sabri Lamouchi despite them being top six for much of the campaign. They were actually posting bottom six numbers through the season and I suppose justice was done in the end, as they dropped out of the playoffs on the final day of 19-20. It was a waste of talent, the squad was expensively assembled and Lamouchi is tactically sound, but too negative and reactive rather than proactive, too often happy to wait for something to go wrong (concede) before making changes. This almost always ends in tears and so few teams thrive long term with such an approach in modern football. I would cite Middlesbrough and Huddersfield as examples of that, having short term success, but ending up eventually in a worse place than when they started, both in terms of league position and finances.

 

Barnsley only survived on the final day(s) of last season and were almost the reverse, with their numbers amongst the best at the foot of the table and they learned much as the campaign progressed and certainly stopped pressing as hard as they began 19-20, when they were left out on their feet after 30-35 minutes in some games.

 

Both teams have subsequently changed head coaches, Lamouchi was unsurprisingly replaced recently and Chris Hughton (pictured) who is vastly experienced and successful in the Championship has come in. Hughton has an 111-63-39 record in the second tier with now four different clubs, leading two to promotion and even Birmingham City to 4th place, which might be his greatest achievement ! That is a 1.86 point per game average which works out at 86 points across 46 games, which would always give you a top 4 finish, it is an incredible record. Hughton took over early last month and at the time Forest had lost their first four starts, they have gone 3-3-1 subsequently and actually they have decent overall numbers; the only team in the bottom 9 with positive ITB stats and just Cardiff in the bottom half have stronger performances and Forest have been good, much better on both sides of the ball than for a long time. Xp puts them six ahead and not one behind Barnsley.

 

 

Barnsley are 22nd, it is early days of course, but they finished 21st last season and would have been relegated had it not been for Wigan's late season points deduction which many people had issues with, given how other, bigger clubs, had been more leniently treated. They were 22nd and relegated from the second tier in 17-18 and this is pretty much their third straight battle to avoid the drop and when you have a young group, confidence can be hard to find once lost. However, back to back 2-2 draws with decent teams in Bristol City and Stoke offers some light and we can expect Barnsley to press high and look to take the game to Millwall who do like to sit back a bit and counter even at home.

 

They have won 3/4 subsequently, but I have real issues with two of the teams they beat and they were outplayed in the other two by a combined 6-17 ITB and 2-7 for BC's. I think and hope they will survive, but suspect it will be a close call and with Hughton having had two weeks to work with his squad, I expect further improvement to have been made by Forest and for them to continue to progress under a head coach better suited to the division and their talents.

 

2 units Nottingham Forest -0.25 ball 2.50 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

 

Good luck !